Per this article they seem to think it’s a lock.
Is it?
He won’t be anywhere close to a unanimous pick, because despite his 600 homers, there are bound to be a LOT of voters who think Thome just never FELT like an all-time great.
But yes, he’s sure to be elected. PROBABLY on the first ballot.
Did anyone else notice how the ESPN commentators not only said Thome was surely bound for the Hall, but apparently all of them except Bobby Val acknowledged that Bonds, Rodriguez and Sosa are not? They put up a graphic of the top eight names on the career HR list, noting Thome’s eighth place, “fifth without steroids.”
And the other non-steroid-using names in the 600-plus club are:
Hank Aaron
Babe Ruth
Willie Mays
Ken Griffey Jr.
When you put together a list of four baseball players and Junior is the least of them, you’re in some pretty elite company.
First ballot.
He will get in. He has the big shiny number ( and even now 600 is still shiny) and the nice guy rep that make people think he couldn’t possibly have cheated.
I agree, first ballot. 600 home runs is huge, and to do it while avoiding the “cheater” tag at a time when this witch hunt was at its worst make him a stone cold lock. I think Thome would have been a lock without 600, because 500 is a pretty darn big milestone, too.
And for all the talk about Thome as being a “homer-or-strikeout guy”, he’s also 8th all-time in walks. (And 2nd all-time in strikeouts, but you can’t have everything.)
No, he’s going into the Hall of Fame at Canton.
What about football player Jim Thome and cricket player Jim Thome?
Blah. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. The only reason we “know” who was on steroids and who was not is because some of them were exposed. There are plenty of “clean” guys who were never outed. I wouldn’t feel comfortable calling guys “dirty” or “clean.” I just paint everyone from that era with the same brush and leave it at that.
I think Thome gets in, but not first ballot. He has played forever (20 seasons to get those 600 homers), and despite his gaudy numbers he was only an all-star 5 times.
The number of times a player was or was not an all-star is the single worst argument for Hall of Fame credentials possible. The number of votes he got for Prom King has exactly as much relevance to Hall of Fame worthiness as does All-Star voting.
Why would anyone doubt it? He’s not like Dave Kingman. Those home runs are power on top of excellent other baseball skills. I suppose some might see .277 as a bit low, but it’s better than that of Reggie Jackson, Harmon Killebrew and Mike Schmidt, none of whom had any problems getting elected to Cooperstown.
He averaged 40 Hrs a season, 110 Rbis and a 277 BA. 25 per season were against the Tigers. I think all the RBIs were. (it feels that way)
Fortunately, I was not using that as an argument for worthiness, but rather an argument for why I did not think he would be inducted on the first ballot.
Hall of Fame voting is subject to a number of stupid biases, among these are how well regarded a player was in his own time (subject to how little people understood about baseball in that era) and how long a player took to accumulate those stats (they are viewed as a “compiler.”
As an example, hits are viewed as being extremely important and walks are almost totally ignored. Tony Gwynn and Tim Raines have nearly identical career lengths (10200 and 10300 PA) and on-base averages (0.388 and 0.385), while Gwynn scored slightly higher in career WAR (68.4 to 64.6), yet because Gwynn got on base mostly through singles and Raines drew a bunch of walks, Raines may not even get into the Hall. Gwynn was in on the first ballot.
What’s the best argument you can make AGAINST Thome? Not colorful enough?
He’s totally in.
Suggest doing an actual poll (with the distinction between “will go in” and “should go in” made clear).
Only six(ish) “great” seasons, otherwise he just contributed a bunch of “good” seasons. First baseman in an era with a bunch of other slugging first basemen (Palmeiro, Bagwell, Thomas, Pujols, McGwire), many of which compare favorably or were flat-out superior. Poor defensively. Played DH for about a third of his career.
He belongs in but these are some of the reasonable arguments that can be made.
And yet only Ruth needed fewer at bats to get to homer $600 - although it’s true that Thome hasn’t been a starter for a while. I didn’t really think of him as a Hall of Fame guy, but the stuff I read today was very convincing. The guy has been getting on base and killing the ball for a long time and he’s done it very well.
600 bombs and (apparently) clean during the 'roid era. To me that spells “sure thing” for the Hall.
At bats are one thing, what about plate appearances? It seems the AB list would reward high-walk guys.