Looking for a comprehensive list of likely, or close, HOFers among current players. I’ll start with the first 5. Add to the list and commence discussion. If you think someone doesn’t belong, please explain.
Greg Maddux
Randy Johnson
Mariano Rivera
Alex Rodriguez
Ivan Rodriguez
I should have added the stipulation that they have already done enough, or should in the last few years of their career, to make it. Good, young players (David Wright, etc.) without real track records should not be considered. Let’s say a 10+ year career to qualify.
Ken Griffey Jr.
Manny Ramirez
Tom Glavine
Derek Jeter
Jim Thome
Frank Thomas
John Smoltz
Jeter
Chipper Jones (probably)
Pedro
Clemens (I’m like 95% sure)
Piazza
Manny
Schilling (probably)
Clemens and Piazza aren’t active (Bonds, Sosa, either.) Not that I think they won’t make it, I’m just curious about the actual number currently playing.
I’m not sold on Chipper Jones. I’m an American League guy though, so I don’t see him that often. Has he been that consistently excellent?
As a Mets fan I can say unequivocally that he has. Besides third base is the least represented position in the hall. No one mentioned yet that I disagree with. I’ add Guerrero, Hoffman, and maybe Kent,
Fair enough; seems odd, though. Why? Anyway, recently retired Hall-bound players are going to get listed too, so keep an eye out.
Also, Sosa won’t make it. McGuire has a chance depending on what happens with attitudes towards steroids down the line.
As yet another Mets fan, let me assure that he has. He’d be a solid “maybe” just on his stats, but his roll as the offensive leader for the '90s Braves dynasty will cement it.
I hadn’t thought of Kent. Baseball-Reference has his comparisons pretty favorable though.
The main reason I’m interested in active players only is that I’m trying to get an idea of the percentage of players that are HOFers. Just curiosity, really.
Kent I think is a ‘probably.’
Hoffman should get in, and Wagner will have an interesting case.
Come on. Sosa has never been seriously linked to steroids (beyond overzealous reporters talking about Sosa and McGwire together because of the HR chase) and his numbers are obviously there.
He may not get in on the first ballot, but I would be shocked if Sosa isn’t elected within three years.
Oh, and Chipper is the real deal and probably the best 3B since Mike Schmidt (Alex Rodriguez will always be a SS to me).
BR has these players as"similar" through Kent’s age. This list has 3 HOFers and a few close calls. Not sure this clears anything up…
I guess there has been a drought of 3rd Basemen. He has 1 MVP, but only 1 other Top 5. That doesn’t seem that dominant to me. Is he a Gold Glove-caliber fielder?
He’s still linked to steroids in people’s minds, and because of that his HRs are being discounted just as much as McGwire’s (besides, there’s about as much evidence for one as for the other in that regard).
And the numbers are not quite so obviously there. Well, ok, one number is there (609 HRs), and it’s possible that that one number alone might someday get him in. Look at the big picture, though. He was a one dimensional power hitter, playing a position that pretty much requires one to be a good hitter, playing in a strong hitter’s park, with a short peak that was located smack-dab in the middle of the most hitter-friendly run environment in recent decades (that’s me soft-peddling the steroids issue). He had a lot of years there with just ‘pretty good’ power, and (more damningly) even more years with middling-to-bad OBP, which kinda sucks if you have rely entirely on your value as a hitter to get into the Hall.
Despite he’ll need to play into his early 40’s to make 3000 hits, Ichiro Suzuki HAS to make it. Good on the basepaths, good at the plate, good in the field. Even if he were to retire today, you’d have to take his Japanese stats into the equation.
-Pujols is still young, but he’s played long enough that unless he gets injured, he’ll get the numbers if you map out his trajectory.
-Johan Santana has two Cy Youngs and I suspect you have to look long and hard to find a player who has won two Cy Youngs and isn’t in the hall of fame. Again, still pretty young…
Pujols and Santana haven’t met the (arbitrary) 10-year mark yet. I’d give Ichiro an exemption for his years in Japan though.
Yes it does. Similarity scores do have a fairly substantial penalty for position differences, but even then there’s no 2B on this list, and just one other middle infielder (Banks, a 1B for half his career)-otherwise you’ve got mainly 3B, 1B, LF types. Kent is 2nd all time in home runs and 3rd in RBIs among second sackers; he’ll go, tho it probably won’t be until his 10th year on the ballot. His D was probably decent enough to not hold him back (or rather the perception of same).
I’m not sure I’ve discussed the following here (as I have on the baseball boards that I frequent), but there’s going to be huge logjam of arguably worthy players hitting the ballot in 4-6 years, and many of them likely won’t come close to election by the BBWAA. Reasons:
The steroid issue. Not only will some otherwise worthy players (starting with McGwire, followed closely by Palmiero in a couple of years) get blackballed, there will be enough writers voting who will refuse to vote for anybody (or almost anybody) from this era, even if “untainted” by direct accusations and/or evidence. Thus a Tony Perez level type of player, who squeaked in just above the 75% threshold, will now fall short.
The 10 player limit on a given ballot will really start to squeeze a lot of the borderline guys off pretty quickly (below the 5% level for staying on the ballot). Up to now the Raines-es and Trammels of the world have managed to hang onto the lower end of the ballot, perhaps lingering around long enough to get a bandwagon going behind them like Jim Rice has. That level of player (yes Tony Perez too) will probably get bounced off the first ballot now, as the voters will be putting the no-doubt guys like 1-5 on their ballots, with 6-10 reserved for their usual idiosyncratic choices (which assumes they will indeed fill all 10 slots-see #1). At best these guys will hang on with between 5-15% each year if they’re lucky, but won’t get the bandwagon effect like their predecessors have (sometimes) gotten, as more obviously better new candidates appear each year.
The 10 vote rule was formed more than half a century ago, when we had almost half the number of teams (and hence the number of candidates) that we do now. So far the candidate lists haven’t quite caught up to the current sizes of the leagues, but it is about to. So kiss the likes of McGriff, Sheffield, Edgar Martinez, and yes probably Kent goodbye pretty quickly. Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa probably will linger for the full 15 years, with ~25-50% of the vote each year. Guys like Maddux and Junior might get enough to get elected tho, but it will be a slow trickle as the ballot gets more crowded each year (and more candidates crowded off).
These two effects will synergistically combine to create a real cluster****. Yeah I’m going to hate it too, and I hope it doesn’t come to pass, but the math is pretty convincing.
I think there’s a good chance that he will be the second member of the 500+ club to not make it.
I don’t disagree with your overall point, but Maddux will be a 1st ballot automatic, and Griffey won’t have much trouble either.