I’m not sure I accept the validity of “Number of MVPs > 1” as a useful measure of a player’s dominance. Derek Jeter, who I grimly admit is a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, never won an MVP at all.
Chipper Jones isn’t a borderline case, in my opinion, at least. He should get in easily, and probably will. As a hitter he’s not dissimilar to Alex Rodriguez, actually; the latter has a bit more power and Chipper has a bit better on base ability. He’ll most likely get to 500 home runs; he only needs to play until he’s 40 and average 25 home runs a year to do it, and there’s no reason to expect that this would be impossible. Among third basemen all-time, only Rodriguez has a higher career slugging percentage; only John McGraw, Wade Boggs, Bill Joyce, and Denny Lyons have higher career on-base percentages (and three of those guys played some or all of their careers during the William McKinley administration).
The other no-doubters, at least if I had a vote, which of course, I don’t:
Maddux
Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Rivera
Griffey, Jr.
And, for me, at least, very strong options:
Thome
Randy Johnson
Glavine
Frank Thomas
Ivan Rodriguez
Schilling
Pedro Martinez
Manny Ramirez
Not sure:
Kent
Vladimir Guerrero
Smoltz
Jorge Posada (I don’t know how you call I-Rod a mortal lock and ignore Posada altogether)
Leaning No:
Hoffman
Todd Helton (but it’s a modest lean)
Mussina
Incomplete, Check Back Later:
Pujols
Berkman
Roy Halladay