In order to avoid hijacking the Red Sox/Yankee thread, I’ve created this one for us to discuss active players who are likely to make the Hall of Fame.
I made it a thread on active players so it doesn’t turn into another Bonds/McGwire debate.
A few current players I think will make the Hall.
I don’t like Manny Ramirez as a person, but he’s got the numbers for the Hall as well.
Pedro Martinez
Mariano Rivera
Derek Jeter
Do we want to get into players that might make it if they keep up their current pace for a few more years.
Josh Beckett
Jake Peavey (sp?)
Prince Fielder
David Ortiz
I would consider all those named above, including Ramirez, to be definites.
I would add on
Derek Jeter
Ivan Rodriguez
Mariano Rivera
Pedro Martinez
as no doubters
The first three aren’t anywhere close. Beckett has had one year with 200+ innings and an ERA under 5 (yes that is cherry picking a bit). Peavy likewise only has a couple seasons in which he has been both healthy and really good. Fielder is just entering year 3. It is possible that they will put up hall of fame careers, but the odds are against it, especially for the pitchers.
With a good year this year, I think Ichiro Suzuki will also have done enough to make the Hall.
Your list is good, although I do wonder about Frank Thomas. Sure he’s got 500+ HR and he had some killer years, but I don’t know. He could be the first 500 HR slugger not accused of using PE drugs to be held out.
Add:
Derek Jeter
Vladimir Guerrero
Chipper Jones
Mike Mussina (has a ton of wins)
Pedro Martinez
Mariano Rivera
Potentials:
David Ortiz - needs another 7 or 8 good (.290/30/110) years. Even then he might be held out because he’s a DH.
Omar Vizquel - one of the best ever SS.
Curt Schilling - I said in the other thread that he was a first-ballot inductee, but I’ll go back on that. When he’s done, it’s definitely going to be debatable.
Albert Pujols - Almost in already…
Agreed on all of the above. In addition,
Manny Ramirez
and especially
Larry “I Hate Him Too Much to Use His Nickname” Jones
will moonwalk into the Hall-of-Fame.
In addition to those mentioned, Albert Pujols is in with a few more good seasons. His elbow problems are somewhat ominous though.
Mike Piazza is in also (is he active?)
Johann Santana is on pace, but needs 5-6 more good to great seasons.
Chipper Jones? Is he going to be a forgotten all-around player in a home run era? His numbers are better than I had expected, but seems to have the “Hall of Very Good” aura around him.
It took until post 6 for someone to mention Pujols?
People, come on.
Well, Pujols isn’t eligible yet. If he plays for ten years he is in.
Hm. Jeter, Jones, Martinez, and Rivera are locks. Vladimir Guerrero will probably get in, but then he might not. There are those who wouldn’t vote for Manny Ramirez and Manny Ramirez is a better hitter than Vlad. He’d have my vote.
As for Mussina, if Bert Blyleven doesn’t get in the Hall of Fame, neither will Mussina. Like Blyleven, Mussina won’t make it to 300 wins; their other statistics are relatively comparable.
Mussina is questionable. I don’t think he’ll make first ballot, and he’ll need a weaker year to get in. Tons of wins, but never more than 19 in a year. Lost a few late no-hit bids late in the game. If he had converted one or two of the 19s into a 20, or held on in a no-hit game, it would raise his profile immensely.
Surprised the Jeter-haters haven’t shown up yet. His fielding is over-rated, but he will likely end up with a 3000 hit career, which will enable him to skate into the Hall with ease.
Griffey’s career was marred by injuries. He’ll need a light year to make it, but probably will.
How could they not vote for Manny Ramirez? He’s arguably the best non-juiced hitter of the steroid era.
I thought about the Mussina/Blyleven similarities and you’re right, but isn’t there a problem that Blyleven’s not in?
Another vote for Ichiro. Not only does he meet all the “qualifiers” despite missing seven complete years of data due to playing in Japan, but he deserves to be in.
Not to derail, but I hope Ichiro breaks Rose’s all-time hit record, then we’d be done hearing about Rose.
Just because no one has pointed a finger at him (yet) does not in any way make this a fact. There is no way to tell simply by looking at someone, and there will never be a complete juiced/not-juiced list. Personally, I suspect a high percentage of players have dabbled (60%+), with maybe 1/3rd being chronic users. But that is only gut feeling which I can’t back up objectively.
Yeah, I can’t really imagine a rational argument against Jeter for the Hall of Fame. He’ll cruise past 3000 hits, and if he plays until he’s 40, he could get to 3500. He’s slugged .460+ for his career as a shortstop. He was a very good base stealer for most of his career. And of course, he was the highest profile player during the highest profile five-year period of the highest profile team in baseball during his career. He should be on the first ballot.
I don’t know. Griffey’s later career was marred by injuries, but he had near to 450 home runs already when he came to Cincinatti. When he retires, he’ll have more than 600, behind only Bonds, Aaron, Ruth, and Mays. He has an outside shot of passing Mays. To even consider keeping a player like that out of the Hall, he’d have to have some seriously special issues: he’d either have to be incredibly one-dimensional (in his prime, Griffey was the best centerfielder in baseball, and his OBP is .374 for his career - he’s not Dave Kingman by any means) or marred by scandal (cf, Bonds, Sosa). He won an MVP, he was the most feared hitter in the game for several years running. He’s in, light year or not.
You don’t have to convince me. I’d vote for him (although I take issue with your conclusion; as far as we know, Alex Rodriguez is not juiced, and is the best hitter of this era). But the thread is about who will make the Hall, not who should.
Again, yes. Change the question to “who should be in the Hall,” and that’s a different thread (although I’d still argue against Mussina and for Blyleven, I think, but it’d be a close thing).
Everyone in the OP, Ramirez, Martinez, Rivera, Jeter, Pudge, Pujols, Griffey, Chipper, Schilling… all those guys seem like locks to me. I wonder about Guerrero - at 32, injuries may already be slowing him down. Will he have enough to get there? He strikes me as being more than good enough; he’s been one of the best hitters out there for years.
Ichiro needs to play at least two more years to be eligible, and he should get his 2000th hit long before that - maybe next year - and that would leave him at age 37 with a few years to add to his stats. That’s pretty incredible; I say he makes it on his own MLB merits, even if you pretend he never played in Japan.
Gary Sheffield, maybe? A scary hitter, but he’s been linked to steroids and is a huge jerk.
What about Carlos Delgado? The numbers look impressive, but I’m not sure he’s done enough. Was he ever the best at anything?
Miguel Tejada probably had a shot, but with the steroids I think his credibility is ruined.
Andruw Jones? A great CF, but his batting average keeps falling, his weight keeps rising, and the notion that he’s underachieved considering his talents is probably snowballing. Could he possibly miss?
Im curious what people would think Helton would have to do to get in. He will always have the stain of “But it’s coors field numbers”, and he has less HRs than most people imagine, but a career .330 is still hard to dismiss out of hand. AT 34 with a history of injuries, he may likey not have the productive years left, but ya never know might yet. What would you like to see from him to get in?