Which current players in MLB are shoo-ins for the Hall of Fame?

Cafe Society
1

After seeing this thread, I decided to set up a similar one for players in Major League Baseball. Essentially, of players who were active through the 2003 season, who do you think is an automatic selection for the Hall of Fame on the basis of their present achievements? For me, quite a few come to mind but I don’t want to name them all at once. So, I’ll toss out a couple obvious choices:

  1. Roger Clemens - Yeah, he was a head-hunter, a hot-head, and (if you ask a Bosox fan) a bigger traitor than Benedict Arnold, but with 310 victories, 4099 K’s, 6 seasons where he won more than 20 games, 6 Cy Young Awards, and an MVP, he’s beyond a mortal lock.

  2. Barry Bonds - Yet another player who wasn’t exactly “Mr. Personalty”, but, barring a steroid-related scandal, he’ll go in on the first ballot.

Who are some others?

2

ARod
Piazza
Maddux

3

I’m sure to miss several, but I’d say the following guys are locks:

Barry Bonds
Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Tommy Glavine
Sammy Sosa
Alex Rodriguez
Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez
Pedro Martinez

A few years ago, I’d have said Ken Griffey Jr. was a lock to be elected in his first year of eligibility. While I still think he’s deserving, he no longer looks like a sure-fire, first-ballot selection.

4

Rickey Henderson is easily a first ballot.
Clemens
Bonds
Maddux
Randy Johnson
Sammy Sosa (tho’ scandal may delay entry)
ARod isn’t, based on the OP of present accomplishments
I’ll also take Ivan Rodriguez at backstop over Piazza

5

I hate the Yankees as a concept. That comes partly from my Dad being a Brooklyn Dodger Fan and me attending Game 5 of the 2000 WS at Shea Stadium.

I agree that most of the names mentioned thus far will get in. Yet I have so little respect, as a fan, for them. Even Mike Piazza - sure he’s gonna be the greatest hitting catcher - but he’ll never be the greatest catcher. Had his last AB in that 2000 WS gone over Bernie William’s head for a homer - I maybe wouldn’t even be mentioning these Yankees:

Derek Jeter: You gotta like and respect that dude. One of the best, ever. Though I want to see the Yankees languish and crumble into dust - it’ll suck to see Age diminish his performance.

Jorge Posada: Again, timely hitting. If Gary Carter is in - Jorge is.

Mariano Rivera: Class all the way. If you like baseball, you gotta like this dude. He’ll retire before he diminishes.

Don Mattingly: Donnie Baseball. Unlikely. Though he was a staple of NY baseball for years - he retired before the string of championships.

6

My guesses:

Rickey Henderson
Barry Bonds
Greg Maddux
Randy Johnson
Sammy Sosa
Roger Clemons
Rafael Palmerio
Mike Piazza
Chipper Jones
A. Rod
Jeff Bagwell

Two years ago, Roberto Alomar was a lock, now I’m not so sure. Guess it depends how many more seasons of .260 ball he’s going to play. He still could get 3000 hits in 2 years.

McGriff: Never liked the guy, but he’s got the raw numbers. According to his stats he’s met the standards of the HOF.

7

Randy Johnson is an interesting choice. I’d wager he’d get in…but there’ll be some discussion about it. Because he was TERRIBLE when he first came up. But when he put it together…OH MY!

ARod, based on current accomplishments, doesn’t qualify yet so based on the OP, no. But he’ll go right in.

The one’s who are CLEARLY HoF players if they retired right now…

Maddux
Clemens
Sosa
Bonds
Rickey
Piazza

Palmeiro will face resistance because of all the DH time…and Molitor this year will be an interesting leading indicator of how the voters feel about that.

Jones and Bagwell are on the bubble. Could go either way and they should both either cement their credentials or damage them with how the next few years play out.

If I could only choose four I’d go with Maddux, Clemens, Bonds, Henderson.

8

I don’t consider Roger Clemens a current player, but he’s a first-balloter.

Shoe-ins:
Bonds
Rickey
Piazza
Maddux
Sosa
Pedro
Randy

Probables:
Rivera
Palmeiro
Hoffman
Glavine
On the bubble, but deserving:
Edgar
McGriff
Smoltz
Bernie
Bagwell
Nen
Percival
Mussina

The next wave:
ARod
Pudge
Chipper
Jeter
Vlad
Billy Wagner
Posada
Helton
Nomar
Thome

9

I’m only counting people who played last year. And I’m assuming you are asking who would be automatically in if they retired right now, not based on expected future performance.

The pitchers will be:

Roger Clemens
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Mariano Rivera

Position players will be:

Rickey Henderson
Barry Bonds
Pudge Rodriguez
Mike Piazza
Sammy Sosa
Rafael Palmeiro

10

Frank Thomas have any shot (assuming he produces roughly the same as he did this year before his career is over)?

11

Sorry but even though I may be biased because I am a Mets fan (was at game 4 in 2000 that they at least won) I am going to have to question you reasoning here.

Jeter - Yes a very smart player and good contact hitting SS but not even in the top two (possibly three) in baseball today. Hell he’s just average defensively. ESPN.com has done numerous statistical reports on his overrated defense ability. But I concede that he will probably get in.

Posada - Are you kidding me!? If you watched any of the playoffs you would have noticed that Posada can not catch. He was an embarrassment behind the plate. Carter went in for his catching/defensive ability and for some of his hitting. Piazza will go in primarily for his hitting. Posada is not HOF material in either.

Rivera - Most likely because he has been so dominating over his career. But remember he has been the Yankee closer for less than 10 years (1997? - after Wetland left). He may need to build up those stats for a while before he is a shoe in. Just because he has the benefit of playoff stats should not cloud the issue.

Mattingly - Correct, he was not a first ballot inductee but I wonder why you bring the WS into the equation? WS is a team accomplishment and not an individual stat that should be considered. He has somewhat comparative stats to HOFmer Kirby Pucket and that might (I stress might) one day get him in. Hell Phil Rizzuto got in.

Most of the other choices I agree with. Astorian, interesting selection on Pedro. He has comparative stats (almost identical) to Sandy Kofax at the end of his career. So technically he should be first ballot selection if he retired today.

And Clemens goes in with Boston on his hat. Any other team on his head is a joke.

12

My picks -

1B:
Bagwell: a mortal lock. He’ll probably finish with more than 500 home runs, and he’s got an outside chance of making it to 300 hits, as well (he’d need, I guess, about six seasons of 150 hits/year, which is unlikely but certainly possible). There’s no way Sosa gets in and Bagwell doesn’t.

Palmeiro: Yes, but not a shoo-in, because the writers tend to be irrational.

Thomas: Definitely. His numbers are even better than Bagwell’s, although he’s got the DH thing (unfairly) pulling him down.

2B -

Craig Biggio: Guy gets no respect. He’ll get in eventually, I think, but if Ryne Sandberg wasn’t a shoo-in, Biggio can’t be. Still some great numbers for this position, for a long time.

SS -

Alex Rodriguez: But only if he continues to produce at a high level. If he has a Griffey-esque decline, then his shoo-in status disappears pretty quickly.

Derek Jeter: No. If his fielding was better, if his numbers all-around were more impressive, maybe he’d have shot. But I think he’ll be remembered as the third best shortstop of his time. Not good enough.

3B -

Ask me today, and I say nobody. Ask me in five years, and I’ll probably say Scott Rolen.

C -

Piazza: First ballot. Easy.

Rodriguez: Likewise. Especially after the incredible WS run we just saw.

OF -

Bonds: Duh.

Sosa: Well, I wouldn’t vote for him, because I think his power numbers are the only impressive thing he has, and other than one or two out-of-this-world seasons, even they aren’t that impressive. But he’ll go, and probably pretty quickly, too.

Henderson: Yes.

Gary Sheffield: Not today. But if he hits 50 home runs for the Yankees, gets an MVP, and wins a World Series… he’ll get in.

SP -

Randy Johnson

Roger Clemens

Greg Maddux

Pedro Martinez: I think if he retired tomorrow, he’d get in. Yes, he gets hurt, and yes, he’s annoying, but…

RP -

Mariano Rivera.

So, to sum up, I’d say the shoo-ins are: Henderson, Bonds, Sosa, Johnson, Clemens, Maddux, Rivera, Piazza, Pudge, Bagwell, and Frank Thomas.

Fun topic!

13

Absolutely, Stover. I assume he’s got 4 more years in him and let’s say he averages 35 homer runs and 90 RBI in each of them (very doable for him, barring injury). That will give him 558 home runs and 1746 RBI with the likelihood of finishing with a career BA over .300, a career OBP over .400 and a career SLG over .500. Definitely a viable HOF candidate. And there’s a chance he could hit 600 home runs. Barring injury, I think there’s a good chance Thomas gets in - but not on the first ballot.

14

I forgot to add John Franco to the list. Say what you will but he is #2 all time in saves at 424 (and possibly more counting) and #1 all time as a Lefty.

Unfortunately i just checked and Lee Smith has not been voted in yet (last year was first year on ballot) so Franco is no shoe in nor is Mariano. Smith (most saves ever) only received 42.34% of the votes (need 75% I think). Most likely Smith will eventually get the nod but he’s not a first ballot HOFer.

This years voting will be interesting. Eckersley is on the ballot this year and besides having one of the greatest years ever by a reliever (7-1 and 51 saves) he also has 197 wins (46 as a reliever) to go with 390 career saves. I am guessing he will be in this year.

BTW Mariano is currently tied for 18th at 283 saves. So he has a looooong way to go to be a shoe in. 500 save seems to be a good place to start if Smith can’t get right in with 478 saves.

Here is the list a of all time saves leaders:

http://www.hispeed.rogers.com/sports/mlb/stats/career.jsp?l=ml&sid=savesleader-r

15

Are some of you serious in saying that A-Rod would not get in if he had to retire today due to injury???

That is just crazy. His numbers are about equal or better than Puckett’s in everything but hits and his OPS kills Puckett. And Puck played 12 season while A-Rod has 8 full seasons.

And some of these are crazy: Hoffman, Nen, Percival, Bernie Williams, Posada…although Yankee bias may help the last two. Unless you are an absolute STUD closer you won’t get in. You need to basically be the closer of a generation. How many closers are there in the hall? Two or three? Not many. Goose should be in though.

As for my current shoe-ins (if they never set foot on a field again):
Clemens
Maddux
Henderson
Bonds
Thomas
A-Rod
Piazza
Randy Johhnson
Sosa
Pedro

There are a bunch of others close:
Bagwell
Biggio
Glavine
Palmerio
Edgar Martinez
I-Rod

Great Thread!

16

All I said was that ARod doesn’t yet have the service time required to go in. If he dropped off the face of the earth today he wouldn’t even qualify for the ballot.

10 years or bust!

17

NYR407

Gary Carter (Kid) is in the HOF ostensibly for the lion’s share of his career spent with the Montreal Expos. But he’s really there for his essential contributions to the Mets turnaround from last place chumps to contenders to championship team in the mid 80’s. His rally-starter hit in game six of the 1986 series certainly buoyed his HOF balloting.

In 2001 game six, Derek Jeter hits a homer just after midnight on Halloween and is instantly dubbed “Mr. November.” :slight_smile:

The reality is World Series championships do seem to matter to the sportswriters who vote for the HOF. I’ll rethink Posada - who will likely face an anti-Yankee backlash anyways - what with the clamour over Clemens and what hat (should be Bo Sox) he wears, and other borderline Yankees like O’neill.

I’m all for Donnie Baseball getting into the hall of fame. Also Ryne Sandburg, Mark Grace, Tommy Agee, Cleon Jones…

18

Posada is out of the question if he weren’t a Yankee. Nen is debateable, but he’d need a lot of good seasons ahead of him.

But Troy Percival is deserving and Paul O’Neill is borderline? What are you smoking and where can I get some? Neither of those guys have any shot.

Here are two names though that are sure to be up for debate: Jose Canseco and Albert Belle.

Canseco has the raw numbers, but the DH bias and the steroid allegations will definitely count against him. But eventually I think he’ll get in.

Belle is eligible for the career ending injury exemption a lot of writers give players with borderline stats (like Puckett a few years ago). But I’m pretty sure his pure assholeishness will keep him out forever.

19

Corbomite I disagree with your take on Carter. Yes his hit with 2 outs in game six is a nice memory but I doubt any voter used that as a reason to vote for him. It took a lot more than that one hit for the Mets to win that game. Hell I still remember his game ending home run in his first game a a Met at Shea. If they were using his time as a Met so strongly then they certainly would have had him go in as a Met.

Cater is a HOFer for his contributions on the field. Hell why can’t Hernandez get in for all his help with the turn around? He has 10 gold gloves and a co-MVP award with Stargel ('79?). I guess the cocaine use doesn’t help.

Posada is not a HOFer. Not even close. Can you give stats or reasons where he has shown his HOF credentials? .

What is your point with Jeter? They LOST that World Series. So should that be a negative against him?

BTW the Yankees just traded for Javier Vasquez trading away Johnson, Juan Rivera and a player to be named.

20

Some comments to the comments:

In that respect, his career resembles Sandy Koufax, whose early years were mediocre but who, like Johnson, grew to the the most dominating pitcher of his era. Johnson will get in easily.

While his batting in 1986 certainly helped, remember that Carter was considered the best catcher of his time even before he joined the Mets. Leaving him out would be almost like leaving out Johnny Bench.

Yeah, but he’s a reliever, and the BBWAA doesn’t know how to assess relievers. The raw number of saves doesn’t seem to be a major factor, though.