Clemens, Maddux, Bonds, Henderson, P. Martinez, Piazza, Randy Johnson and probably Sosa seem like locks. Roberto Alomar looked like a lock a couple of years ago, but his mediocre showing the last two seasons and the lingering memory of the spitting incident are likely to cost him some votes – a couple more seasons at his former level might restore the luster enough. Assuming A-Rod lasts a few more years at anything approaching his track record so far, he’s in. Glavine ought to be a lock, but I suspect there’ll be some voters who don’t like the idea of putting two pitchers from one team from the same era in at almost the same time. Curt Schilling is nearly up to Glavine’s level, but has a few mediocre-to-bad years and a lot of time lost to injuries in his career to overcome.
If Griffey can manage another couple of decent seasons, he should have no trouble. If not, it’ll be close. Palmeiro deserves it, but has the DH factor working against him, even though his defense was solid enough to win him three Gold Gloves (even if he did damned little to deserve one of them). Frank Thomas also probably deserves it, but also has the DH stigma to carry without the mitigation of the Gold Gloves. Ditto Edgar Martinez, only more so.
I’m a little surprised no one else has mentioned Larry Walker yet – most of the other guys with similar career numbers are either in the Hall or aren’t eligible yet (his .967 career OPS is among the top 20 of all time), and it’s not like he’s ever been anything but an asset in the field, but people have stopped paying much attention to anything but monster offensive numbers from Colorado players. Bagwell is up there as well, and Biggio should get a boost from his demonstrated ability to play several defensively important positions well. Pudge Rodriguez improved his chances a lot this year, and a couple more seasons with 500+ PA and an OPS over .800 should seal the deal. Chipper Jones shouldn’t need a lot more to make the grade, though he has only nine full seasons under his belt so far; in those nine seasons, he’s had an OPS of over .900 seven times, including an OBP of over .390 each of those seven years, has played at least 153 games every year, and seems to be channelling the spirit of Charlie Gehringer in his consistency. After a slightly slower start, Carlos Delgado has put up six straight seasons of HOF-worthy numbers; four or five more and he’d be nearly a lock. Manny Ramirez has the numbers on his side (he’s never had an OPS below .953 in his nine seasons with over 500 PA, and has been above 1.000 the last five years straight), and five more seasons at his current pace would give him around 550 HR, but the Hall hasn’t been all that kind to players with a rep for being “difficult” (cf Dick Allen). Hasn’t necessarily kept them out, either.
For me, everyone else who’s been mentioned either doesn’t quite rise to the expected level, or has at least several more years of quality performance to deliver. Helton, Pujols, and V. Guerrero seem like the safest bets, though all have a long way to go. There’re a half-dozen other position players in the last few years of their careers who haven’t made it yet, but could with two or three outstanding seasons before they hang 'em up. Ichiro would have to play until he’s 37 just to be eligible, but if he can continue to hit over .300 and steal 30 bases a year (at least for the next four or five years), he might get a special “pioneer” pass from the voters.
With the pitchers, it’s a lot harder to call. I can’t think of anyone beyond the above who’s likely to make it just by doing a bit more of what they’ve already done: Mike Mussina possibly, John Smoltz perhaps (though see my comment on Glavine above), Mariano Rivera probably (assuming that he and the Yankees keep up their standard of the last several years for another three or four more), maybe Kevin Brown if he can mount a miraculous comeback and pitch near his peak level for another couple of years, but with the exception of Rivera none of them really “feels” like a HOFer to me. Great pitchers, all, but not quite of that caliber. There are already lots of guys with comparable careers who’ve been passed over for years, and there’s nothing about this group that makes any of them stand out above the others. It’s so damned hard to have a long, consistent career as a pitcher these days that it’s a crapshoot which of the promising young guys like Halladay, Prior, Wood, Zito, Hudson, Mulder, Gagne, etc. are going to be healthy and effective long enough.
(I don’t know why I had three players with Ks pop in my head)