I see Mussina probably getting in a weak year. He’ll have the advantage of having been a Yankee for many of his playing years.
Mussina with identical numbers playing for the Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins? He’s on the outside looking in.
I was thinking along the same lines and I would add that Jim Thome might be in the same boat. But then I took a look at Thomas’ stat page:
Thomas should pass 2500 hits and 500 doubles this season. Factor in the power numbers, a career average of .302 and a lifetime OPS of .981, I’m thinking he’s a first ballot hall of famer. Of course, he’s played a significant part of his career as a DH. I don’t know how much that will hurt him.
As an aside, looking at the all-time stat pages I noticed that Ted Williams had 521 homeruns and only 709 strikeouts. Remarkable.
Looking over the stats, I was surprised to see that there are only 11 active pitchers with over 150 wins:
Greg Maddux 349
Tom Glavine 303
Randy Johnson 284
Mike Mussina 251
Jaime Moyer 231
Curt Schilling 216
Kenny Rogers 210
John Smoltz 209
Pedro Martinez 209
Andy Pettitte 202
Tim Wakefield 169
I don’t think any of those players with under 300 wins, including Randy Johnson, is going to make it. It seems that in the era of 6 inning starters it will be a long time before someone cracks 300 again. I can’t even guess who that might be.
Smoltz gets in because of his years as a closer.
I think Johnson will also get in. I don’t see him winning 16 games this year and I can see this being his last year so he won’t make 300 wins.
Howerver, Johnson was such a dominant pitcher of the 1990-early 200s. The 5 Cy Young awards get him in.
With all due politeness, you’ve got to be kidding. Randy Johnson was absolutely one of the best pitchers of the era. He’s third all-time in strikeouts, and he’ll finish in second if he pitches a handful of games this year. Up until the last two or three years, when he slipped, he’d won two-third of his decisions. He was a dominant pitcher for a long time by any measure, and don’t forget his performance in the 2001 World Series.
And if anything, Martinez was better than all that. That’s from someone who was always rooting against the guy.
Schilling’s numbers aren’t so overwhelming, but I think the postseason stuff gets him over the top, that’s why I put him in there. And Smoltz, in addition to long-term excellence as a starter and a few excellent years as a closer, also has a sterling postseason record.
I can’t believe I just read that Griffey would need help getting into the Hall of Fame, and then someone else said Randy Johnson would need 300 wins to get in. I’m stunned. Stunned.
Oh Crap :smack:
I meant make it to 300 wins, not the Hall. That was really poorly worded.
I agree with Johnson, Martinez and Smoltz, of course. Schilling will be remembered for his stellar post-season performances and I think that will get him over the hump, eventually.
Phew. 
As far as 300 wins goes, a few pundits have suggested C.C. Sabathia, who has 100 wins and will turn 28 in July, is young enough and already accomplished enough to have a chance. There aren’t too many other candidates at the moment.
Ichiro is not even going to come close to breaking Rose’s record.
Rose - 4,256 hits
Ichiro - 1,608 hits (34 years old)
Thomas, Thome and Mussina are definitely not first ballot Hall of Famers. Mussina because although he was a very good pitcher for a long period of time, he never won a Cy Young, and never has really been in the conversation as the top pitcher of his generation.
Edgar Martinez may get in on his first ballot. I don’t ever see any other DH getting in first ballot. If nothing else, I imagine every sports writer who covers the NL will be reluctant to vote for 'em.
I do like the OP’s list, less Thomas, but adding Rivieria, Manny and Jeter. I would not be suprised to see Pedro wait a year, depending on how long he continues to suck it up with the Mets. While he’s had a less consistent career than Moosey, his unparalleled dominance at the end of the 90’s and the start of the 00’s will certainly get him in, no matter his win total.
Ichiro will probably also get in, but again, I wouldn’t be amazed if the sports writers entirely ignored his pre-US career and made him wait a while. Or not vote him in at all.
Pedro from 1997 to 2003 was possibly the best run by a pitcher relative to his league in the modern era… he is absolutely in first ballot, no questions asked, if his right arm detaches from his torso this very evening.
He would not be eligible yet.
Just going by ACCOMPLISHMENTS TO THIS POINT:
No doubters named so far:
Ivan Rodriguez
Tom Glavine
Greg Maddux (not “Maddox”)
Alex Rodriguez
Randy Johnson
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Frank Thomas
Derek Jeter
Pedro Martinez
Manny Ramirez
95% likely:
Jim Thome
Chipper Jones
Mariano Rivera
Some “Probably” candidates:
John Smoltz - I’m surprised so many people are citing a 209-145 pitcher as a certain HoF candidate. He’ll get support but he just doesnt have the win total, nd since he’s not apparently ending his career as a closer, that won’t be as well remembered as, say, Eckersley’s accomplishments. Getting to 3000 K’s will help him but he’ll need many years on the ballot.
Trevor Hoffman - An excellent pitcher, who in his entire career has pitched about as many innings as John Smoltz did in four seasons. Not as good as Rivera, and I think people are starting to clue in to the fact that being the career saves leader doesn’t really mean a lot when “Saves” is a really stupid stat.
Curt Schilling - Like Smoltz, his W-L record (216-146) is not going to look impressive to voters. As time passes, a guy’s personality matters less, and his numbers matter more, and Schilling does not have the numbers.
Trivia question: Curt Schilling is one of only three pitchers in the history if baseball to strike out 3,000 men while walking fewer than 1,000. Greg Maddux can also claim this but he’s still pitching, and is only 28 walks away from hitting 1,000, so he probably won’t end up that way. Who is the third pitcher who did this?
Mike Mussina - Really good for a long time, never great. No highlights.
Todd Helton - An excellent hitter, Coors or not, but at this point his career would be exceptionally short for a Hall of Famer who was never really the BEST hitter around. His career has been about as valuable as that of Brian Giles, and nobody has mentioned Brian Giles.
Carlos Delgado - A truly awesome hitter, will be a certainty if he gets to 500 homers, but I think he does need to get there to be a sure thing. No defensive value and no postseason credentials makes the 500 homer thing a must-have.
Vladimir Guerrero - Great hitter but his career is too short at this point. No reason to think he won’t play for many more years and pile up numbers, but if he got hurt today and drifted out of baseball he would be a tough case.
Gary Sheffield - Legitimately superior hitter, but a lack of ancillary qualifications and a glut of home run hitters would make him a lot safer if he’d get to 500 homers. A steroid link could hurt him.
Albert Pujols - Not eligible yet. Obviously, he could rack up 700 homers, but could also get hurt next Tuesday.
Probably Not:
David Ortiz - I’d say Ortiz has very little chance of making the Hall. He’s had a hell of a run but he’s already 32 and built like Grimace. Players who look like David Ortiz generally do not last into their late 30’s as productive players.
Omar Vizquel - A very good player for a long time. Never really great, but wouldn’t be a bad choice, I guess.
Andruw Jones - Clearly not qualified as of yet. Still young enough to turn things around, but he’s off to a horrible start this year. At this point his future, and hence HoF chances, look murky.
Trivia Question: Since I looked it up, I won’t answer, but there are two besides Maddux and Schilling. Also, if Smoltz manages to strike out 14 batters before he walks 12 more, he’ll be in the club, briefly.
You’re right about Smoltz not being a sure thing. He does have fewer losses than Eck, and a lower ERA. If he can play a few years and reach the neighborhood of 240 wins, you throw in the 154 saves and he probably makes it.
Ichiro hopefully will make it to 3000 hits though, and that would be an amazing achievement.
Some potential candidates that I think have not been discussed:
Magglio Ordonez - a long shot, to be sure, but 5 or 6 more years at his career averages would start getting him some impressive career totals. If he can keep his average significanlty above .300, he’s got an outside shot.
Jeff Kent - I’d vote him in first ballot, but he won’t make it first ballot. I think he gets in eventually. Good enough for long enough, at a position where hitting is at a premium. The MVP pushes him over the top I think. Although I notice from looking at his Baseball Reference page, he’s got ZERO black ink - has never led the league in any stat.
Edgar Renteria - he’d have to get to 3000 hits to have a shot. He’s young enough to do it potentially, but personally I don’t think he’ll age that well.
Adrian Beltre - no, wait, stop laughing… IF he plays another ten years, and if he keeps going at his career rates, he’s a 3B with 3000 hits and 450 homers. If he does that, the voters might put him in. Again, extremely unlikely, but not impossible.
Roy Oswalt - well, not if he keeps going like he’s been pitching this year… but he’s got a great ERA, a great W/L percentage, and already a couple of 20 win seasons. Another one I don’t think will age well, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could make it.
I don’t think he’ll be going at this rate when he’s 39.
You can always use this if you want to see an etimated projection of a person’s odds of reaching 300 wins. Johan Santana has a 6% chance of reaching 300 wins. Sabathia is at 10%. Carlos Zambrano is at 12%.