OK. Inspired by the great sports debate we were having about Bonds, I got to thinking about sports greatness. Who, if they retired TODAY would be first ballot hall of famers in their respective sports? Not who will SOMEDAY be in the hall, but would be if they hung 'em up TODAY!
My thoughts
MLB
T. Gwynn
R. Henderson
B. Bonds
M. McGuire
R. Johnson (the 300 win rule can no longer be used)
G. Maddox
R. Clemens
C. Ripkin
CLOSE OR NEED A FEW MORE SEASONS: Griffey, ARod (quite a few), Sosa (maybe 1 or 2), Pedro.
NBA
M. Jordan (if he’ll EVER retire)
H. Olajuwan
P. Ewing
R. Miller
D Robinson
S. Pippen
J. Stockton
K. Malone
QUESTIONABLE (OR NEEDS ANOTHER YEAR)
Shaq
Richmond
Mullin (I doubt it)
ON THEIR WAY WHEN TIME IS UP
Barkley
Drexler
Dumars (He’ll get in because EVERYONE loves the guy)
T. Chambers???
Magic (gotta stop coming back)
Worthy has to get in someday.
NFL (I can only give offensive- with a few exceptions)
J. Rice
Andre Reed?
Bruce Matthews
J. Seau
Darrell Green
Emmitt Smith
Brett Favre
C Carter
ON THEIR WAY WHEN TIME IS UP
Dan Marino
Steve Young
John Elway
Barry Sanders
Deion Sanders
Troy Aikman
Give me the benefit of the doubt and assume an obvious ommission was oversight and not a snub. NHL fans feel free to add a hockey section.
I can only comment on baseball, which is the only sport I follow.
All the hitters you named are first-ballot HOFers, right now.
The three pitchers you named are probable HOFers. First ballot, right now? Clemens, yes; Maddux, probably; Johnson, not if his career ended today (if history is any guide, he’ll need to tack on another 20-25 victories minimum). It’s a little harder for pitchers these days, even great ones: Today’s hitters look increasingly good next to earlier players; pitchers look a little worse.
Griffey–possible, right now; Sosa, I agree, he’s reeeeal close. A Rod–way too distant to tell.
Pedro Martinez–He’s had a few great seasons, but he has had too many injuries and doesn’t seem durable enough. I’d say his chances of making the Hall are not terribly good, but if he can stay away from arm trouble that will change.
Well, I posted almost exactly the same question here. As I asked for that thread to be closed, I beg your indulgence for reposting my OP here:
Today I was at the Yankees game for Cal Ripken’s final game at the Stadium. Seeing Ripken face Roger Clemens, I realized that I was watching a show-down between two players that unquestionably will be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame as soon as they are eligible.
Besides breaking Lou Gehrig’s consecutive game streak, Cal Ripken redefined the role of the shortstop and is among the all-time career leaders in just about every offensive category. Roger Clemens has won a record five Cy Young awards, and is a leading candidate to get his sixth this year.
Other active players in this category are Mark McGuire and Barry Bonds, who are currently numbers 5 and 7 on the career homers list and will end this season (one way or the other) as 1 and 2 in the single-season home-run record books. Rickey Henderson is far and away the all-time career stolen base leader, and is currently 2 runs short of leading the career runs scored list.
What other active players, based on the statistics they currently have (if they hung up their cleats tomorrow), do you think are guaranteed first-ballot Hall of Famers, and why?
Great topic!
I’m more of a football fan so I’ll add:
Rod Woodson
Marshall Faulk (even though he’s only 28!)
Bruce Smith
Larry Allen
Morten Anderson
Aeneas Williams (deserving, but might be hurt by playing for the Cardinals for most of his career)
J. Bettis (close to 10,000 rushing yds, but probably not 1st ballot)
Curtis Martin (almost 100 career TDs)
Ryan Leaf (just seeing if you’re paying attention)
MLB:
Roberto Alomar (close, anyway)
Glavine (2 Cy youngs and a 223-132 record)
Piazza
Ivan Rodriguez
Kenny Lofton (maybe not 1st ballot though)
(don’t follow NBA or NHL close enough to say)
oops. Before I get flamed, allow me to take C. Martin off my list. I misread his stats. Seems I substituted his career long TD reception (41 yds) for his number of career receiving TDs :o
All these players are clearly Hall of Famers. Only Johnson would even have a question, and he’d get in on one or two ballots. I would also argue that Glavine and Alomar are certain to go in.
I realize that Johnson doesn’t have many career wins, but his career is unique; there’s never really been anyone like him save Sandy Koufax, sort of. He’ll go in easy.
I agree with all of Watsonwil’s selections, but will add a few more:
Pudge Rodriguez
Mike Piazza (VERY few catchers in ANY era have comparable offensive numbers).
I’ve never liked Robby Alomar, even before the spitting incident, but he’s about as good as any second baseman ever, in the field, and has superb offensive numbers, too.
Those are the STRONGEST unnamed candidates. Some MAYBE Hall-of-famers include:
Juan Gonzalez
Derek Jeter (A-Rod has raised the bar on offensive numbers for shortstops… otherwise Derek would look like a MUCH stronger candidate).
Bettis was an oversight. He is certainly right there. What about Ricky Watters. Both have similar numbers probably. Bettis at least played in the big game (that seems to act as a tie breaker if the candidate’s numbers are close).
Chuckle
Alomar is solid. You kind of get some leeway based on position. A case could be made that he is the best 2B ever (I disagree and say either Banks or Sandburg).
Glavine was someone I left off. If he gets to 250, I think he is in. He may be in either way. He should have been on my questionable list.
Piazza needs a few more years. Great per season numbers but need a few more to pad the career stats. Same with ARod.
Lofton, I just don’t know.
I will say this, if you get that many rings, you got a chance. I think Jeter will wind up with more rings than Yogi (9 is the baseball record, right?) and maybe more than Bill Russell (11- NBA and team sports record).
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by astorian * I agree with all of Watsonwil’s selections, but will add a few more:
Part of watson’s criteria would be if they retired today. Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera would not be eligible for the Hall of Fame if they retired now.
Even without the ten-year requirement, they wouldn’t be elected. Jeter’s career is too short and in retrospect he’d look buried next to the other shortstops of his era. Rivera hasn’t done anything in the regular season to distinguish himself from a dozen others guys, and HoF voters wouldn’t give it to him just for playoff excellence, so he wouldn’t go in either. He has a long way to go to be a Hall of Famer.
Watson: Ernie Banks wasn’t a second baseman. My all-time second basemen would be
For the NFL Hall of Fame, I think that if Ravens TE Shannon Sharpe retired today, that he’d be a first-ballot HOFer – especially considering his two rings. He holds pretty much every NFL record at tight end.
I think I was thinking of Joe Morgan. Big Red Machine. Thanks for the clear up!
I didn’t know there was a 10 year rule in baseball. It makes sense and would seem to be necessary even if it wasn’t. I do agree when Jeter’s career is done, his numbers will be decent. I seem to remember Joe DiMaggio’s being less than I would have expected from the “Greatest Living Player” (not that he holds that title now). Anyone got a line on DiMaggio? Clearly he was worthy, but I’ve heard guys on sports radio (I know, I know) say he was overrated.
[tangent]
When Dimaggio died, Ted Williams inherited the title of greatest living player. When he passes, who gets it?
[/tangent]
DiMaggio’s career numbers are:
1390 runs
2214 hits
1527 RBI
.325 average
361 homeruns
There’s also the 1941 season with his record 56 game hitting streak - that season he struck out only 13 times in 541 at bats!
DiMaggio’s numbers are solid, but not as high as may be expected for someone of his legendary status, but he only played for 13 seasons. If we extropolate those numbers to a career of 18 years, he has:
1924 runs - 8th on the all-time list
3065 hits - 18th on the all-time list
2114 RBI - 3rd on the all-time list
499 homeruns - 18th on the all-time list
A bit more math for a 20 year career gives DiMaggio:
2138 runs - 6th on the all-time list
3406 hits - 8th on the all-time list
2349 RBI - 1st on the all-time list (Hank Aaron holds the record at 2297)
555 homeruns - 8th on the all-time list
So, while his numbers don’t look like much at first glance, just keep in mind he didn’t play as long as many of the Hall of Famers we’re used to seeing. Had he kept playing, he’d be all over the record book.
Good question. I’d have to say Willie Mays or Hank Aaron.
I just want to add that he’d be all over the record book, if he kept playing at that level. Age or injury, of course, could have affected his play had he stayed in the game.
Unless he murders his wife and a waiter, Jerry Rice is as close to a guaranteed first time out HOF’er as you can get. A few years back, a sports magazine contacted the actual electors who vote on admission to the football hall of fame and asked them the same question as the OP. All of them said they would vote for Rice’s admission on the first ballet.
What’s everyone’s opinions on Barry Larkin? While probably not a first ballot choice, he’s probably the best shortstop I’ve seen, with good stats in all areas.
I would agree with Crunchy and say either Mays or Aaron (my pick would be Mays). In fact, I would say Mays had that title when DiMaggio was still around, and Aaron was a very close 2nd.
On another tangent, how close does everyone think Bonds is to the “greatest living” tag? My opinion is he might actually be fourth behind Mays,Aaron, and Williams. Of course, his problem is his lack of playoff performance, but his regular season numbers are amazing.
As for what Little Nemo said, anyone who doesn’t vote for Rice on the 1st ballot should have their HOF voting rights revoked. Course, Babe Ruth was not a unanimous selection either (in fact no baseball player has ever been a unanimous selection)! Anyone know if any other HOFs have anyone that was a 100% selection?
Shaq is a no-question.
Mitch Richmond is also a no-question.
For MLB:
Ken Griffey Jr.–if he weren’t injured as often he would be best in game. He still is great.
Ivan Rodriguez–he is a better catcher than Piazza, best of all time in fact.
A-rod can’t yet, but he is getting there.
Randy Johnson is a lefty–damn right he goes in, or else he does that palm ball over the voters’ heads.
Derek Jeter definitely is, when he does 10 years–he is one of the best playoff players ever, now that the playoffs are a second season.
Also from the Yankees:
Bernie Williams–the stat that owners use to determine salaries have him #1 in majors for five years for overall skills.
Paul O’Neill
Mariano Rivera (in a few years)
