Cameron is set to deliver a big speech in Amsterdam on Friday on Britain’s involvement with the EU. He’s expected to promise a straight in-out referendum following new EU treaty negotiations in a few years time on the subject should the Tories win a majority at the next election (or, this is what I can gather based on the hints he keeps dropping in interviews). Though pro-EU himself, his party backbenchers tend euroskeptic and are pushing either for the repatriation of powers back to the UK or a straight UK exit of the organisation.
Public opinion in the UK largely sides with the Tories on the issue, with a recent YouGov poll putting every region of the United Kingdom as being extremely Euroskeptic. On the other hand, business opinion seems less gung-ho about the possibility, with the likes of the CBI and Sir Richard Branson issuing warnings about any possible exit and its effects on British business.
On the other hand, the direction that the EU is taking is likely to going to force the hand of any British administration. Britain along with ten other countries is outside the Eurozone but within the EU. Only Sweden and the UK have permanent opt-outs of the single currency, with the rest obligated to join at some point, though are able to delay their entry seemingly as long as they see fit. There’s a risk that the Eurozone may start to caucus, wiping out any sort of negotiation position that the UK currently has. It’s widely accepted that the Eurozone has to do something to stop the mess in the Eurozone, and that something is likely not going to be in Britain’s interests.
Further, there’s widespread disaffection within the UK that rules seem to be enforced unevenly (France’s ban on British beef imports after the BSE scare persisting far longer than it should, the French expelling Roma en masse, Germany’s insistence on refusing to accept non-German qualifications, etc.), the lack of any sort of auditing within the EU (the accounts have not been signed off by the EU’s own auditors for a decade, as well as the levels of subsidy and protectionism for farmers, via the CAP, that largely benefits the French.
So, from a domestic and a European politics point of view, it seems that there’s a real risk that the UK may simply leave the EU. Will it? And if so, what is likely to happen?
I’ve actually been wondering almost exactly the same thing, so I’m glad you started this thread.
Unfortunately I don’t have any real insights into the situation (beyond, at this stage, a reaction of “Wouldn’t surprise me”), but I’ll be interested to see what people who have been following it all more closely have to say.
UK is treated very much as an outsider, issues that cause concern is the lack of democratic and financial accountability. The latter has come home to roost in a world class way.
It seems UK implements all the EU directives it is signed up for and in full, but many Euro nations do it when and if they want and usually hardly enforces theresultant laws.
UK is a net contributor, and although we get a rebate, and also some funds allocated for regional development, it basicly amounts to them giving us a portion of our own money back.
The Euros resent our ‘inteference’ when we are seeking accountability, but heck we are a significant bankroller and perhaps we would just like to ensure that our funding is used appropriately to support development that is sustainable and relevant, instead of propping up a German weekend hobby farmer whose idea of more efficient milk production is to buy a larger bucket.
We feel like we are paying for a party, and when we ask what the money was spent on we are told to keep our noses out. Right now the Euros need us but they are hardly making friendly overtures to us.
We are now in a position where the main importance of our Euro membership is one of geopolitical influence, rather than as a free trade organisation.
There are a whole host of issues where UK seems to come out well behind the others, despite things like fishing rights being a matter of our own soveriegnty in our own waters.
Public opinion has been sour against the EU for a long time. I have been and remain generally pro-EU if still recognising it has a lot of flaws, and I blow hot and cold sometimes on whether eurosceptics have a point or are just feeding off deliberate misinformation, tea-party style.
I honestly don’t know how a referendum would swing, and I am completely in the dark as to what the consequences of such a thing would be. The fact that a lot of businesses are hostile to a British exit makes me worried.
The current governent is a coalition with the Liberal Democrat party, there is no reason to believe that in another election they could gain enough support between them to retain power.
As part of the coalition agreement, lots of former conservative voters blame the unpopularity of their party upon the accommodations that were necessary to keep the coalition together, in other words they think their part is not right wing enough.
Those straying former party voters have expressed some support for some ideas by the very anti-European party UKIP.
UKIP will never get enough support to implement its policies, it is unlikely to get enough to become a coalition partner, but what it could do is to split the Conservative vote, and in our electoral system of ‘first past the post’, the effect of this could be dramatic, it could cost many many parliamentary seats.
Cameron is therefore trying to be seen to be repositioning his party as less favourable to Europe, whilst not actually changing his stance - it is largely image. He hopes it will bring him votes from those who he sees as natural supporters of his party.
Cameron has lots of support amongst media moguls, who look at issues such as the Leveson inquiry and they have decided that their interests are better served with a Conservative government which has declined to implement all the findings of the inquiry report, its likely that a Labour government would implement more of the inquiry findings, but to be frank, despite Labour noises , I think they probably would do much the same as the Conservatives, but it makes for electoral politics to state otherwise - promises when not in power are not the same as actions which in office.
So what you have is an anti-Euro image in our media, in an attempt to ensure the Conservatives have a better chance of retaining power in the next election.
That’s basically my take on it - an attempt to take the wind out of the sails of UKIP. Cameron’s problem is that the more he tries to take the centre ground, the more likely he is to lose the ‘traditional’ Tory voter to UKIP. Labour doesn’t really have a similar problem to any great extent.
The BBC, The Daily Mirror, The Guardian and The Independent don’t strike me as anti-EU, and taken together make up a sizeable chunk of the British media.
IMHO, people read newspapers that reflect their political views rather than forming political views from reading a particular paper.
