I don’t think they push this claim very much anymore, if at all. It’s really being pushed from the other side, with the CCP asserting Taiwan is part of China.
Well, the sovereignty of the island was given to The ROC after the war. Prior to that, it wasn’t part of the ROC and never part of the CCP. You have to go back to, IIRC, the Qing dynasty since China actually controlled the island, and even then it was a very light control.
Where are you getting the maybe here? The ROC was granted this even prior to the end of the war at one of the conferences between the various allied nations fighting Germany and Japan. The ROC formally took possession of Taiwan in late 1945 and established a garrison there fairly quickly, again, from memory.
One thing that might not be apparent, especially if one looks at CCP war propaganda, is that the CCP actually didn’t fight much against the Japanese…they spent the war either building up forces or fighting the ROC, only fighting the Japanese peripherally. They had zero clout during the discussions with the other allies and weren’t really supported much by anyone during the war. It was only after the war that the Soviets started to really help them out…at the same time, the US decided, in its infinite wisdom, to cut support for the ROC and basically leave them on their own. This is why the CCP ended up winning the civil war in fact…a combination of letting the ROC wear itself out fighting the Japanese (ironically, Mao actually acknowledged this in a backhand sort of way later on) and Soviet aid with the US backing away and not really providing much assistance. At any rate, the CCP wasn’t part of any of the discussions about things like what the ROC would get post-war, including Taiwan, from the Japanese-occupied territories.
Yes, that’s definitely the case. The CCP never had any access or claim to Taiwan since they were never in possession of it. That’s kind of what this is about for them…ending the civil war and crushing the last vestige of ROC power.
Plus, you have the uncomfortable fact that the CCP has been saying all along that Chinese people aren’t suited to democracy as the West understands it, and that they need the CCP and will only be successful under the CCP and under that sort of government. Then you have Taiwan basically doing all the stuff that they say the Chinese people aren’t suited for and making them look bad in a number of ways. It’s a huge thorn in their sides.
I think the question partly comes down to a question of whether Taiwan was ceded to the sovereign country of China, or the then government of China. It would be very unusual for the government of the time to be the one receiving possession as a body in its own right. The ROC may claim Taiwan because they lay claim to all of China, but as an entity in and of themselves, the 1945 move doesn’t seem to provide the ROC any claim over that of the PRC.
Later acts by Japan just seem to muddy the waters. The later Treaty of Taipei should, but doesn’t help at all.
I think that Russia’s failed invasion of Ukraine has spooked China. Analysis before that was probably:
Length of war = time it takes troops to march the 40km from the landing zone to Taipei.
Now they are probably not so sure about that.
I think anyone who assumes that it would be easy in any sense is deluded.
Organizationally and logistically it would be tough. The Taiwan Straits are slightly wider than the English Channel distance traversed for D-Day. The US and Allied armies had recent experience with amphibious warfare as well as many veteran units, and engaged in a huge buildup of war material and troops, and also engaged in a lot of logistical work- the Mulberry harbors, the post-D-day underwater fuel pipelines, and so on.
The Chinese don’t have all that stuff. They don’t have veteran units, they aren’t building Mulberries or underwater pipelines.
And probably most important of all, D-Day was virtually unopposed by the Kriegsmarine. I doubt a Chinese invasion would be unopposed by Taiwan, and probably not by the US either.
I think it would be a boondoggle along the lines of Russian’s invasion of Ukraine, with the caveat that the Chinese might win if they were willing to just throw men and machines at it until they won.
That’s sort of like saying in a long and detailed fashion that all is well, the world is safe, nothing bad can happen, because we can all trust that a Frenchman would never eat cheese.
I’m not sure that I want that to be the end-game condition.
All I’m saying is that it’s an operation on the order of D-Day, and that was unprecedented. And more importantly, unopposed in a naval sense. Both during the actual landings AND afterward, when all the logistical support came across the English Channel.
When I said “throw men and machines at it” I meant something on the order of hundreds of thousands of dead- it would literally be some kind of Zapp Brannigan type strategy.
I don’t think the Chinese have any desire to get Taiwan bad enough to incur those sorts of casualties as well as suffer the diplomatic and economic consequences of such an action.
Perhaps, but Russia has illustrated that sometimes an aggressor will attack anyway despite the invasion being fully well known to go contrary to all rational interest, leading to economic recession, great loss of life and prestige, international sanction and a military quagmire, just because it decides to do so. China may see all the drawbacks with eyes wide open and still give the invasion orders anyway.
Of course they don’t put it just like that. But reading what PRC citizens commonly say and write, they have greater desire for Taiwan than Russians had for Ukraine.
This isn’t to predict war. For every war that comes, there probably are 2 or 3 that looked likely and didn’t materialize.
But the answer to the thread title question is a tremendous Yes.
Irredentist passions in the PRC are stronger with regard to Taiwan than the Indian border demarcation. But if I was Xi Jinping, India would seem a safer bet, since a partial victory there is more realistically possible if war goes badly. War with Taiwan seems closer to an all or nothing throw of the dice. And last I heard, Xi doesn’t like casinos.
Ever since moving to Taiwan, I’ve followed this fairly well and read articles saying China can successfully invade; they can’t now, but can in X years; and who knows.
This type of war would be quite different than what we’ve seen before. China has a lot of capabilities that Russia doesn’t but also has more challenges.
That’s the million dollar question, isn’t it? With inflation and the stakes involved, I suppose it’s the trillion dollar now.
They have have consistent that they will initiate war if Taiwan declare independence. That is one of their clear red lines. However, you never know until it actually happens and if they did declare war, if they could win.
So far, Taiwan leaders have never gotten close to declaring independence. The KMT officially rejects that option and the DPP has never attempted to test it.
Exact poll numbers are hard to pin down because there seems to be a wide variance depending on the alliance of the polltaker, but more Taiwanese seem to support independence after watching China’s actions in Hong Kong and Russian’s invasion of Ukraine. However, there still is a considerable minority opposed to independence.
One thing that I will say is that the US is doing poorly by forgetting that we really are amenable to the One China Policy.
It should be made clear that we understand that China wants to be one united nation. But, if you have two people promised to wed each other, there’s a difference between the man kidnapping the girl, locking her in his basement, and beating on her until she submits to the wedding; and him demonstrating himself as a kind, caring person who intends to be just as dedicated to her as she will be to him - both seeking the most bountiful and joyous partnership that can be accomplished.
A wedding is only as good as its basis. It’s all losers when you try to go about it the wrong way.
Done the right way, though, it’s a thing to be celebrated and cheered for by all; including by the USA.
I ran across this book/white paper (published in 2022) while looking for another RAND report.
This is a pretty comprehensive view of potential PRC actions with respect to Taiwan (the PDF is 384 pages, so the link is to the National Defense University page where it can be downloaded).
The 30 page introduction provides a pretty solid summary and guide to the remainder of the book, which consists of individual chapters by different experts. Some conclusions from the Introduction (just some single points, without the more expansive reasoning in the Introduction):
First, any Chinese decision to use force is much more likely to result from a deliberate cost-benefit calculus incorporating both domestic and external considerations than from unintended escalation.
Second, while the prospects for peaceful unification are narrowing, China’s menu of military intimidation and warfighting options is expanding.
Third, the PLA is making wholesale changes to ready itself for higher end Taiwan contingencies.
Fourth, despite recent reforms and new capabilities, the PLA continues to wrestle with challenges in hardware, organization, training, and doctrine.
Finally, opportunities remain to strengthen Taiwan’s defense.
There is no right way of unifying China and Taiwan. China wants to subjugate Taiwan to its every whim. Transgression of its rule will be met with death.
Remember, China said it would leave Hong Kong alone to carry on as it always had once they were re-united. China most certainly did not leave Hong Kong alone.
