My argument that 3.8 billion years is not enough time was based on a gut feeling and, even though I don’t think it’s wrong, I probably won’t have the ability to defend it, so I withdraw it from the discussion. However, responses jumped on the weakest link of my argument. Can we please move on to discussing, say, bacterial flagellum, or, if you prefer, present to me clear examples of the development of complex new features using evidence other than presumptions based on the fossil record?
[QUOTE=Mangetout]
Actually, let’s not ignore it - because this statement illustrates - I believe - a flaw in the way you’re thinking about it all.
On all those planets where this amazing coincidence didn’t happen, is it the case that there are people sitting around complaining that there hasn’t been enough time for them to come into existence? It is only possible to make the observation that ‘wow, everything seems just about right for me to be alive!’, in conditions where that is already true. So it’s not really an amazing coincidence at all.
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You’re describing the anthropomorphic principle, which is often used to counter creationist arguments involving fine tuning, or the extreme improbability of life spontaneously originating. The atheist argument usually makes the point that anything which occurs was actually a highly improbable outcome. For example, what are the odds that every molecule of air in the room will be in its current position? Almost infinitely small, right? So is there no value in pointing out the unlikelihood of a particular event? What if you instead ask: What are the odds that the molecules will be in positions such that my next breath will supply me with oxygen? Pretty good, close to 1:1, I suspect. So when the creationist argues that it is highly improbable that life would emerge, he has to be careful not to assume dependencies that aren’t really there. We can’t say that the odds of the random combination of all 26 amino acids (I forget the number and don’t feel like checking at the moment) being left handed is 2^26, and therefore the odds of life arising are at least that small, because who’s to say right-handed amino acids wouldn’t work? That would be inserting the bias of our current viewpoint. While I understand the trap that lies in using this type of reasoning, that does not mean the argument is fundamentally flawed. The theist simply needs to be careful not to include factors which are not true contingencies.
So is it possible to estimate a probability for life spontaneously arising, assuming ideal conditions (whatever those are)? To start with, it is very difficult to define what constitutes the minimum criteria for “life,” but it seems reasonable to me to use the simplest forms of life we can observe today as a starting point. That doesn’t mean there couldn’t be simpler life forms, but it’s useful to examine these organisms to determine what features are necessary to support life. In regards to even the simplest organisms having self-replicating DNA, I found point 5 interesting on this page from Science Week. Now, I’m certainly no scientist, but from what I’ve read about the makeup of the simplest self-replicating life forms we can observe today, to even use the word “simple” is a stretch. They have DNA with a genome containing several hundred genes, cell membranes, metabolism, and so on. It’s pretty clear that these structures could not have formed as-is from a blind combination of available proteins and amino acids, radiated or otherwise. There would have had to be simpler organisms capable of self-replication and metabolism, which in turn could lead to the current mechanism of DNA replication, without using natural selection, since the genetic mechanism for passing on traits would not yet be in place.
So, my point is that, anthropomorphic principle aside, it is possible to demonstrate the difficulty of life spontaneously arising, without knowing all the details of how such a thing might happen. For some more points in this regard, the following were interesting:
http://www.answersingenesis.org/docs/196.asp
http://creationwiki.org/index.php/(Talk.Or…redibly_complex
[QUOTE=Pochacco]
If the diversity of life did not arrive from a succession of changes, what alternate mechanism are you proposing? Are you suggesting that different life forms on Earth do not share a common ancestor?
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That is correct. I believe natural selection takes place and leads to incredible variety, but that an intelligent creator is responsible for progressively adding new features and functions (i.e., new complex sets of genetic instructions) throughout the history of life on the planet. In that case, whether or not evolution is an otherwise viable explanation is pretty much irrelevant, since any such intervention would be outside the bounds of a naturalistic definition of evolution.