Yeah, I would agree with that assessment. Trying to assign a single probability to the event would be meaningless since it would be based on many unsubstantiated presumptions. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t show the extreme improbability of contingent factors of the advent of life, which is what I was trying to point out. I’ll break it down in more detail:
PA1. The simplest forms of life today are too complex (cell membranes, DNA with more than 400 genes and 50,000 base pairs, metabolism, etc.) to be formed directly from an unguided combination of available composite elements.
PA2. The simplest forms of life arose naturally.
CA. There must have been much simpler forms of life than today’s simplest organisms.
PB1. There must have been simpler forms of life.
PB2. Two intrinsic qualities that distinguish living organisms from non-living are growth through metabolism and reproduction.
CB. There must be a minimum set of coordinated chemical interactions necessary to cause an assemblage of bio-chemicals to have these qualities.
PC1. To evolve from simpler organisms into the more complex kind we observe today, there needs to be a method to achieve greater complexity.
PC2. According to evolutionary biology, this method is genetic mutation in combination with natural selection.
PC3. Mutation and natural selection rely on the presence and transmission of genetic information via DNA or RNA.
PC4. Even in its simplest form, the genetic system used to transmit information which directs biological functions is too complex to arise by an unguided combination of available composite elements.
CC. The current understanding of molecular biology does not explain how the complex organisms we observe today could evolve from proposed “simpler forms of life.”
PD1. The minimum number of genes needed to provide instructions for vital biological functions (growth, metabolism, reproduction) is estimated to be over 200.
PD2. Instructions for these biological functions are meaningless without supporting structures to utilize them (viruses are a good example of DNA without supporting structures; they are inherently dependent on the metabolic and reproductive functions of other organisms).
CD. It is highly improbable that both the system for transmitting instructions and the supporting structures which utilize them would arise from an unguided combination of available composite elements.
Putting it together …
PE1. Life arose naturally.
PE2. The first life forms must have been much simpler than today’s simplest organisms.
PE3. There is a minimum set of coordinated chemical interactions necessary to cause an assemblage of bio-chemicals to grow via metabolism and reproduce.
PE4. The current understanding of molecular biology does not explain how the complex organisms we observe today could evolve from proposed “simpler forms of life.”
PE5. It is highly improbable that both the system for transmitting instructions and the supporting structures which utilize them would arise from an unguided combination of available composite elements.
Conclusion: Current scientific knowledge does not provide an adequate explanation for how even the simplest conceivable living organisms could arise without guidance from an intelligent designer and then evolve into more complex life forms.
That’s what we’re discussing right now. Since evidence for an intelligent creator inevitably takes the form “this could not have happened otherwise,” we are now discussing that evidence. I believe there is a lot of other, non-physical evidence, but I realize that isn’t very convincing to the skeptic who doesn’t accept any supernatural explanations in the first place.
Because the bacterial flagellum is comparatively simple, and I already had in mind an idea for how to counter it. Unfortunately, I may be without the internet for a day or two. To be continued …