SecDef Gates said Monday there’s no proof. But now there seems to be new evidence.
If so, can/should the U.S. and/or NATO do anything about it?
Almost certainly…as well as similar arms to the various insurgents in Iraq. Proving that will be difficult of course…and proving it to some will be essentially impossible, especially in light of the administrations past track record. From what I’ve read and some of the folks I’ve talked too, its pretty much a slam dunk though that Iran is doing SOMETHING…exactly what and how much is the debate.
Can they? Well, thats a silly question. Of course they can. Both diplomatic and military solutions are available to NATO if they choose to take them. WILL they is a better question…IMHO the answer to that is: no.
SHOULD they? Well…yes. I think they should do something about this. What, exactly, is probably the actual debate. Personally I think they should try a bit more forceful diplomacy but back it with some kind of backbone (for a change)…and let Iran know they are done screwing around. I’m pretty certain however they won’t do this…and Iran I’m equally certain knows this. All Iran has to do is make sure these things are covert enough that the Euro’s have plausible deniability of some kind they can hide their inaction behind. That and the example of the US in Iraq (always a popular thing for the Euro’s to shake their heads at and feel superior to us over :)) should keep them from actually doing anything.
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I say “No”. Unless there is concrete proof that the Iranians are supplying arms and we should stop accusing them of doing so. It seems to me that these accusations are used to demonize the Iranians and to lay to incite another war. Far as I am concerned, I won’t accept anything less than a full admission by the Iranian government.
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Honesty
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Honesty
The distinction for me would be between ‘Iran’ and ‘Iranians’.
As in how much is it an organised activity vs something being done by various people within Iran. Supply and demand makes it almost inevitable some level of arms sales are happening, its whether its actively state sponsored or not that would be the question Id have thought.
Otara
I’m willing to believe if shown sufficient evidence that the Iranian government is supplying arms to the Taliban, but I can’t for the life of me imagine why they’d want to. The Taliban and their Pakistani supporters have been a major pain in Iran’s ass, e.g., stirring up Sunni Baloch separatists in Iran’s southeastern border province of Sistan-Baluchistan.
For Shi’ite-majority Iran to encourage the growth and re-establishment of militant fundamentalist Salafi Sunni theocracy right on Iran’s eastern doorstep would be a move so boneheaded that I really can’t see what they’d get out of it. Sure, encouraging instability in Afghanistan is sticking it to the despised “Great Satan” to some extent, but how could that be worth it in the long run? Eventually US troops are going to leave Afghanistan, and the Afghani Taliban are still going to be sitting on Iran’s eastern doorstep. And I somehow don’t imagine that they’re going to be saying “hey, thanks for the guns guys, let’s be buddies!”
It would really surprise me if it turned out that the Iranians were too dumb to realize that. But then, I’ve been surprised by the dumbness of political leaders before this.
Indeed! There’s a market for weapons out there, and no matter what the official stance of the Iranian government, there will be Iranians who seek to profit from it.
It depends on whether or not we are pushing to invade Iran this week.
It doesn’t have to be worth it in the long run, if the Mullahs decide the short-term gain is large enough. As much to the point, they may be using the threat of the US to create/maintain/improve contacts within the Taliban groups to make it easier to deal with them (in whatever fashion) once the US is less of a factor locally.
I agree. It’s against their own self interest, and however foolish it appears to outsiders, the Muslim world has demonstrated that it takes the Sunni/Shi’ite split very seriously.
And after all the lies coming from the warmongers, it would take some truly impressive evidence for me to believe any claims in that direction.
As for what we should do about it ? Leave the area, and cultivate alternative energy sources.
There have been alliances between various Sunni and Shiite groups. Why would Iran want to arm the Taliban? For the same reason the Germans might provide arms to the Japanese. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Bog the U.S. down in Afghanistan, and they’re more likely to leave Iraq. Plus, it incites radicalism which creates a whole lot of new enemies of America.
Plus, Iran strives to be the leader of the Muslim world, at least in the Middle East. By funding the Taliban, the Iranians are winning hearts and minds.
Why would they want us to leave Iraq ? As long as we are stuck there, we hurt ourselves and are less of a threat to them.
Because if the U.S. leaves, the Shiite can take control of the entire country, punish the Sunnis as they see fit, and Iran’s tentacles can reach deep inside its neighbor.
Sounds like the plot of a hentai anime movie.
Anyway, the Iranian govt. arming their long-term enemies sounds fairly dubious. But boy, doesn’t it sound like a PERFECT excuse to attack Iran? Sure does! How neat! Let’s try it, shall we?
This administration has anti-credibility with its alleged intelligence at this point. If they told me that they had evidence that the earth was round and orbited the sun, I’d be pretty damned suspicious.
I don’t think I buy this. Iran’s already got the tentacle thing going strong, for one thing; they are closely linked with Shi’ite-majority southern Iraq, and I’m doubtful that they really want to be running “the entire country”, given the volatility of the Sunni-majority central areas.
The one thing I think we can be pretty positive that Iran does not want is a full-on Sunni/Shi’ite conflict in the ME. And the more out-of-control the Iraq situation gets, the greater the risk of that happening, if Sunni powers in the area decide they need to move in to help their fellow Sunnis in Iraq.
So it’s not at all clear to me that Iran really wants the US to leave Iraq. They certainly want the US not to succeed in Iraq, of course; they want the US to spend as much blood and treasure as they can while failing to establish stability and getting increasingly blamed and hated. That, ISTM, is a much better deal for the current Iranian government than having the US actually pull out of Iraq altogether.
One might infer that that’s what Iran hopes to accomplish in Afghanistan too—i.e., keeping the US bogged down, unsuccessful and unpopular—and so that’s why they’re giving the Taliban weapons, if indeed they are doing that. But as I said, it doesn’t make sense to me, because the negative consequences of strengthening the Taliban seem so much greater for Iran than the positive consequences of hampering the US.