A valid argument against it is, statistical likelihood doesn’t apply because reality is already happening. The chance that we’re in a simulation is either 0%, or 100%, depending on whether or not its true.
If you don’t like that, then consider this. We didn’t always have X simulations. For a very long time, we had exactly 0. Yet, the probably of reality being a simulation isn’t going to have been varying every time somebody makes a computer game.
And, further, all simulations that only exist in this reality are not candidates for being this reality, obviously. That’s even if you limit it to the number of simulations that could be mistaken for reality (which, at this time, is exactly 0). So, how many simulations do we know of that exist outside of this reality? Exactly 0.
The logic of this argument is foul to the core. What is the definition of ‘reality’? This argument explicitly says that reality is a simulation, period, just a particular simulation. (Look at it. It says, of X total simulations, we have a 1/X chance of being in reality. That means that ‘our’ reality is being drawn out of that pool of X simulations, with a 1/X chance of being some specific simulation, that for comeletely unknown reasons that argument has decided to call ‘reality’.) Therefore, this arguement assumes the answer from the beginning.
The meaningful question that this argument is trying to address is, is our reality the ‘most’ real question there is? The answer: there is no way of knowing. Not even by counting the number of computer games on your shelf can you tell. shijinn does have a point; if you choose to believe in most dieties, then there are ways of thinking of things that place God in a ‘higher’ reality, to which ours is a simulation. (You can also choose to assume that God shares this reality with us, and simply doesn’t live next door, but rather on another co-existent plane that we have difficulty observing. After all, if there is any way to observe him or his effects, aren’t all those manifestations occuring in our reality? Either way, your choice.) hawthorne has a better point, though: