Exactly: perfect weather. Although there is drizzle and there is drizzle. What I would label drizzle others might call light rain. In Florida rain is so common that it feels like it needs to be bumped up a category in order to count. It would also be a different story if I habitually did a lot of stuff outside except hike and run.
Weather here (southern Ontario) is less than perfect, but at least it was well above freezing – around 45°F and sunny and many birds are singing. Tomorrow will be about 50°F with rain and, oddly, the possibility of wet snow and ice pellets.
You, Sir, are sick. 
80F at night, 85F in the day and 15 minutes of afternoon thunderstorm or half hour of pre-dawn coastal rain to keep everything clean are perfect.
As the famed Red Baron of WW-I said, “… All else is rubbish.”
More seriously you do you and with my sincere best wishes.. But I genuinely hope AGW warms FL’s winters before it drowns our land.
I’d gladly move 500 miles farther south if it was available in the USA. Winter sux utterly.
This one you’ll have to take up with Daniel Swain whose office hours video I sourced it from (can’t remember if this was the most recent or 2nd most recent off the top of my head - he has yet another one tomorrow I believe which should be equally fascinating). I tried to go back and find the specific parts but… each of his videos is generally an hour plus (shocker - a long weather/climate video). I would give pause however to acknowledge that since I can’t currently find the specific segments I’m not absolutely positive that I did not mischaracterize them to some degree. If so - that is on me and I apologize.
I guess I would say that sometimes it’s not so much a “gut feel” as “very preliminary data using equipment that lacks a great deal of precision” (i.e. my eyes). Think when you look at a scatter plot and can clearly see the trend line before you’ve run any regression. You’ll still run the regression because that’s good science (also publishing with “yeah, I eyeballed it” would probably get you some, ah, interesting reviewer feedback), but with just a preliminary scan using the ol’ human eyeball Mk. 1 you can tell there’s something there. That’s not nothing. It’s just not as precise as we can get with more sophisticated equipment.
Swapping over to the heat wave, I see something that bears a lot of resemblance to the 2021 heat wave - but more extreme (larger area, earlier in the year, likely more records broken, etc). If 2021 was climate change linked, and this seems worse, I don’t personally consider it a controversial leap to make.
Am I out over my ski’s a teensy bit though? Yes. I’m still confident I’m going to stick that landing though (or whatever you do when you’re out over your skis and don’t crash? analogies are hard)
I didn’t know that particular detail about the 2021 heatwave. I would have assumed it was higher, so good context and valid point.
Also, the OP image updated. Here’s a static image 
Image posting hint:
You want to post the link to the image itself, not to the page containing the image. Of course the hosting website wants the opposite, so they can show ads to everyone who sees or clicks your link.
Depending on whether you’re on a phone or a computer changes how hard getting past all the “help” to get to the actual link to the actual image is. But that should be your goal: a url ending in .jpg, .png, .webp, or .gif.
They say we’re all products of our environment, so I assume you must be from Venus, where I’m sure the climate is much to your liking (average surface temperature is a cozy 464 °C (867 °F)!
Me, I’m a little more like Petter Hörnfeldt (“Mentour Pilot”) who recently began one of his aviation videos with the weather description “it was sunny and 9 below zero Celsius, or as we would say back in my native Sweden, a perfect spring day”. 
The way I consider ideal temperature is in relation to the typical indoor setting that we can actually control. For me it’s 21.5 °C in winter (just under 71 °F) and 22 °C in summer (just under 72 °F). I love our “transition seasons” in spring and fall when the outdoor temperature is close to that and neither heating nor cooling is needed.
These are the correct temperatures for both humans and canines, if rather chilly for Venusians and Floridians. All else is rubbish, to quote the Red Baron.
Managed to find the direct link. I don’t know what’s worse. This heat wave or trying to upload and share an image…
As an added bonus if you’re out west, you also likely have record low snow pack to contend with which is only going to get more record breaking over the next couple weeks of obscene aseasonal temperatures which should be fun.
And then we can all top it off with a likely strong to very strong El Niño kicking in this summer.
I’d say wake me up when 2026 is over, but it’s likely one of the cooler years we have left so might as well enjoy it I guess?
But one location in the Bahamas is tying their daily record low! Checkmate, atheists!
March in the Midwest has always been chimeric, switching (often on a dime) between wintry and springlike weather. However, this has been becoming more extreme in recent years.
In the last 10 days, in the Chicago area where I live, we’ve had:
- An intense severe thunderstorm event on March 10, including record-sized hail and a storm cell which spawned several EF3 tornadoes across Illinois and Indiana
- Snow and ice this past Sunday night/Monday morning, and low temperatures in the teens
- Several days of extraordinarily high winds (30-40 mph, gusts up into the 50+mph range)
- High temperatures in the 70s several times
200 miles north of me, where my parents live in Wisconsin, they got 26" of snow this past Sunday into Monday, one of the biggest snowfalls in recorded history there, and were under blizzard warnings for over 24 hours. It had been in the 60s there the week before, and they are back in the 50s now.
With more energy in the system overall, I wouldn’t be surprised if this kind of spring whiplash effect becomes the norm as that extra energy gets shunted about. I saw some pictures of some of the hail y’all got. Terrifying.
Exactly. Warmer air = more energy and more water vapor (in this part of the country) = more intense storms. And, as we’re often at the boundary between the arctic and southern air masses at this time of year, it just whipsaw back and forth.
We were fortunate that we only got about quarter-sized hail at our house. My SIL, 10 miles southwest, got baseball-sized hail.
I’m a trained weather spotter with the local NWS office, and have a number for calling in severe weather reports. When I called on the 10th, to report the quarter-sized hail, the meteorologist there said, “Oh, you’ll be getting bigger stuff shortly.” Thankfully, he was incorrect, but only because we’re just a smidge too far north.
Just a couple of further notes on this that you may find interesting, especially the second article which appears to support your claim, but I’ll have more to say about that in a moment.
Regarding Daniel Swain, I don’t know the man and haven’t seen any of his videos, so I’m no position to argue what he may or may not have said. But since you seem to have high regard for him, have a look at a lengthy article on his blog about the current heat wave, written on March 11, just before it began, discussing the reasons it will happen. Nowhere in that blog does Swain – a climate scientist – even use the terms “climate change” or “global warming”. He does, however, at one point in the essay state:
Get ready…for some meteorology! The atmospheric dynamics proximally linked with this historic ridge-building-then-amplification-in situ process are quite interesting to consider.
He then goes on to explain the meteorological phenomena behind this heat wave. This is sensible and interesting, and is exactly in line with my previous point that one can often discern meteorological causes for a specific heat wave event, but it’s generally impossible to attribute those meteorological phenomena to climate change, except probabalistically.
But then OTOH here’s something that will make you happy, because it quotes your contention pretty much word for word:
… events as warm as in March 2026 would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Climate models strongly underestimate this observed trend but still show a significant increase in extreme heat. We combine models and observations, giving equal weight to both lines of evidence, and find an estimated increase in intensity of 2.6°C for such events, with an increase in likelihood of a factor of about 800. This means that without climate change it would have been virtually impossible for the event to occur.
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/record-shattering-march-temperatures-in-western-north-america-virtually-impossible-without-climate-change/
My observation here is that worldweatherattribution.org is a mix of science and advocacy whose reports have to be treated with caution. It was originally founded by two climate scientists and now has affiliations with several important institutions. It has scientific legitimacy, but its mission is rapid assessment of weather events (rather than thorough analyses later) and making forceful declarations that are policy-driven rather than scientifically neutral.
They use strong language intended to be impactful in public communication in order to influence public policy, so they tend to oversimplify and overstate levels of confidence beyond what is scientifically justifiable. Phrases like “virtually impossible” are a leap of interpretation and not justified by model outputs.
Furthermore, the statement that heat waves are “800x more likely” due to climate change seems to be selectively drawn from the most pessimistic models, and in any case is an oversimplification that doesn’t justify conclusions like “virtually impossible”. Among many other problems with that, climate models are least reliable at predicting extreme events at the tail ends of probability distributions – an important nuance that they’re quite happy to ignore.
So there you are. Take it for what it’s worth.
It’s also the same group whose pronouncements heavily featured in the cites which @doomtastic provided early in the thread.
I was listening to the CBS radio news earlier today, and in a news story about the California heat wave, they, too, cited World Weather Attribution. So, it seems like that group is, at a minimum, doing a fair amount of PR to get their POV out there, and picked up by the media.
He actually talked about this topic specifically in his opening remarks yesterday (about 45 seconds in) which is handy. Even specifically calling out the rapid attribution and concurring with their probabilistic assessment, which you might (or might not) find interesting.
What won’t be clear without consuming some of his backlog of videos is how out of character it is for him to be using these kinds of superlatives. I consume lots of the content on this topic which isn’t nearly as careful with language (the guy that runs the climate casino blog comes to mind and his “Hiroshimas per second” scale for measuring energy imbalance).
That’s good context, and I appreciate your willingness to do the due diligence. It seems like we’re all more or less in agreement on the facts as they currently stand, and the big bone of contention essentially boils down to “what degree of statistical anomaly is required to support qualitative terms like ‘virtually impossible’”.
From my point of view once we’re getting into even double digits of “more likeliness” - in conjunction with mechanisms that have explanatory power from a pure physics point of view - its good enough to be getting on with. I don’t have anything more substantive to add to the discussion at that point.
What’s far more interesting to me is trying to extrapolate what this means for the near future because it’s completely unprecedented. We’ve never seen conditions like this before. We quite literally can only guess at what it means for later this year in terms of things like water availability or fire risk.
In other news, the dots currently appear to be forming factions? Where were you during the great color war of this afternoon?
OMFG! I was wondering why it was so hot in the house. It does retain heat through the greenhouse effect, but I have the AC on.
We’re in the 90s (upper 30s)! In March! It was literally below freezing on my birthday a few days ago!
I’ve never had to turn on all the AC units in March.
That is indeed what’s going on. Based on the forecast models it’s likely to be with us for a bit too unfortunately, though hopefully not quite as strong after this weekend?
Here’s an interesting little side note. The redistribution of mass caused by rising sea levels is slowing the earth’s rotation at a rate that is likely the highest in the past 3.6 million years. Which is quite a powerful statement if one takes the rate of ice sheet loss and sea level rise as a proxy for the rate of global warming.