Could this environmental disaster become long-term? (perhaps ten or twenty years?)
If so, what would be the consequences of this spill going on for ten or twenty years?
What would be the ultimate worst case scenario and how likely is it that could happen?
You could look at the long term effects of the Exxon Valdez spill. It has been 20 years and still has lasting effects.
So yes the current spill is expected to have long term effects. It will be many years before a full recovery could occur. As it is a region that has already been declining because of human activity it was unlikely even without the oil spill it would be in as good of condition in 20 years. Now with the oil spill that’s a certainty.
I certainly believe everything you said. But I was hoping for some more specific kinds of scenarios. What will likely happen if this thing keeps spilling the same volume of guck into the ocean as it is today?
What kinds of events do you guess will be the consequences of ten or twenty years of an unabated spill?
SE Louisiana resident here.
One of New Orleans’ local newscasts (Fox 8 News with Bruce Katz, for other locals), over the weekend, showed some kind of time-lapse map of the oil coming out of the Deepwater Horizon bore if the current leak continues unabates. In the clip, the oil slick makes it out of the Gulf of Mexico, up the East Coast about as far as North Carolina, and then starts to drift eastwards into the Atlantic Ocean as an ever-growing blob. EDIT: Forgot to mention that this was over about 6 months time, IIRC.
Going to the Fox 8 website to see if that same clip posted.
Missed the edit window. That should be:
… (ABC 26 News with Bruce Katz, for other locals) …
No problem - just read in this morning’s newspaper that Florida’s Gov. Crist has solved the whole situation. By golly, he has taken the bull by the horns and appointed a task force of top lawyers to take care of the situation! Nobody can say he isn’t on top of the situation. Is this a great country, or what!
not sure what you are asking here.
Are you hypothizing that the oil well continues to spill oil for 20 years? And what would that damage be? You realize that is a virtually impossible eventuality don’t you? But if you want a what if-I guess you could check the last time something like this happened-IXTOC I. But that blowout continued for not quite 1 year. So it gives limited evidence for a very long-term blowout.
Perhaps what you are asking is whether there will be long-term continuing damage from the oil. Certainly there will be long-term effects from the oil-it will be around a long time. There will be serious damage caused this year. Whether one will document continued damage is a matter of definition and supposition. For instance, once a given area of sea-grasses die off, normal water action erodes the sediment and makes it hard for the grass to grow back. This happened in a large scale after Katrina. Does one consider that the inability of the grasses to grow back once they are killed by the oil a continuing damage or just an after-effect? So, yes there will be measurable and noticable oil in the environment for a long time. There will be long-term effects from the oil spill. There will be some amount of continuing damage from the oil. But in my non-expert opinion, the last will be the smallest of the three.
As for how likely the ultimate worst-case condition lasting for 10-20 years. Zero. Unless you assume the collapse of civilization.
Environmental degradation that will last for decades, and probably longer. The longer the well spews oil, the greater that degradation will directly impact the Gulf, spreading around Florida and up the East coast. Maybe beyond. Degradation in coastal areas, bays, estuaries, marshes, barrier islands, etc. Degradation as in offshore fisheries, spawning grounds, etc. Inland degradation during heavy storms and hurricanes as the storm surges carry contaminants inland. Inland degradation as people using their boats carry the crap inland; commercial carriers as they travel up the Mississippi, the Ohio and the Missouri, et. al.
Commercial fishing failures, even complete collapse of some fishing sub-industries along the Gulf coast, spreading around Florida and up the East coast.
Recreation and tourism failures, even collapse along the Gulf coast, spreading around Florida and up the East coast.
Increases in human illnesses and diseases, including cancer. An increase in death rates, potential prenatal and postnatal deformities, diseases and deaths.
Political fallout on local, statewide and national levels.
Economic failures and collapses concurrent with all of the above.
I’m not going to argue one way or another about the long-term effects of this spill. There has been a larger spill, so far, in the Gulf of Mexico: Ixtoc I oil spill - Wikipedia.
That’s assuming you believe Wikiepedia. You can research it’s consequences and draw your own conclusions.
IXTOC was in 50m and still took quite some time to fix. BP is at 1600m or so.
Given the vast differences in depths, noone is really sure I think. Obviously there are some big advances since 1979, but also this is a whole lot deeper as well.
Otara
Red Lobster won’t have their mid-winter promo “Shrimp Feast” deal for the next few years, for sure.
Worst-case scenario?
As the storm surges through the bayous, sparking power lines ignite the fuel/air mix into a roiling, alligator-filled wall of flame…
earth is like the human body,has we put bad stuff in bad things happen but the body has it natural healers so does earth,mother nature has away of healing itself,thru history we have seen many man made industries ruin are land but somehow it still grows flowers and veggies and grass and this spill how bad it is will go away from mother nature
Thanks for your input, George. 