I searched and couldn’t find a thread specifically addressing this; I apologize if there’s an ongoing one that I missed.
Anyway, I know this is going to be speculative, but what’s the going thought on what the long-term effects of this massive oil spill will be? Impact on sea life, maritime economies, etc.? How long are we going to be dealing with this and what is the cleanup going to look like? Are people heading to the US East coast for shore vacations going to be swimming in an oil slick for the next few years?
That was my thought. A year, two years, three years from now, people still may be thinking twice before consuming Gulf seafood. Particularly bottom feeders like shrimp and filter feeders like oysters. Even if it could be conclusively proven that the seafood is safe for consumption, there will be a psychological impact on the consumer. And that translates to a lot of shrimp men and oyster men being put out of work on the coast, a result which would send shudders through the Gulf coast economy.
On top of that will be real estate losses. Already, beach rental companies are having a hard time renting houses and condos on the Gulf because of the spill – even in areas not yet affected by the oil. Poor rental records will make it harder to sell beach houses and condos, and owners who depend on summer rental income to meet mortgage payments may soon find themselves in foreclosure. Another round of foreclosures is just what Florida doesn’t need.
It was just beginning to look like the Gulf coast real estate market might be about to emerge from the double whammy of Katrina and the real estate crash. This will surely squelch any nascent recovery.
The Educated guesses I have seen quote figures of 3-10 years for the environment. My WAG is that the worst will be over in a couple years but there will be noticable effects for about a decade. Assuming we get it stopped soon, that is.
A sea turtle called Kemp’s Ridley, which was already critically endangered before the oil spill, breeds on the barrier islands that are being hit by oil. About 150 have been found dead so far
With conservative estimates at 25k barrels flooding into the gulf a day and [Some recent estimates at 75k a day] that is almost a million barrels a month…if this last three months or more, you’ll see massive amounts of oil in the Mississippi River Watershed for more than a decade. The impact on the gulf ecosystems is catestrophic already even if it was cleaned up tomorrow. The long term effects may include some species placed on the endangered list, economic collapse of small fishing towns, migration of long term gulf families out of the region, tourism evaporation and continued political fallout for politicos who rabidly support offshore drilling.
Possible benefits: Tighter regulations on deep well drilling, more efficient back-up measures for all oil rigs [all measures failed in this “state of the art” rig]
Sure but as your site sez"Results of the summer shoreline survey showed that the oil remaining on the surface of beaches in Prince William Sound is weathered and mostly hardened into an asphalt-like layer. The toxic components of this type of surface oil are not as readily available to biota, although some softer forms do cause sheens in tide pools."
In other words, the effects are not longer very noticable. They are *detectable. *
I finally saw a view of the riser flange. It looks like a regular flange with bolts. Obviously there was no thought of anything beyond the safety systems internal to the BOP. I would like to see a detachable system so that a riser can be swapped out. Heck, they could have bolted ANOTHER BOP in a stack if the flange could have been decoupled. The well could have been saved.
I’d sure like to see boom technology advanced in case of another event such as a super tanker accident.
What hasn’t been addressed is hurricane season. The storm surges will bring oil much further onshore. So inland areas could experience serious groundwater contamination, land contamination, untold damages to inland plants and animals, etc. Then there are the human communities being impacted … long-term health issues, pre-natal issues, etc.
shrimp don’t live that long. They live for 1-2 years. The oil will dissapate in the upper ocean in a few months. At least I think so. No one knows for sure. Certainly within a year the levels will be very low. Shrimp will be effected for a while, but that will pass quickly. As for consumption, well it is hard enough to tell where fresh shrimp in the store come from now. I don’t think people will shun them any more than they seek them out now.
Oysters are a different story. They live a long time, are filter feeders, and can’t move. Considering the political, ecological, economic, and social factors in oyster farming in the Gulf Coast, this one is going to be a tangled mess for many years.
I live in the region.
The oil spill is a large spill. Lots of oil. But untold damages to inland plants and animals? Serious groundwater contamination? Cite?
Frankly, that sounds pretty rediculous. The idea that a hurricane will bring any oil inland at all is a stretch. Do you think the winds pick up seawater and blow it inland? I had 2 feet of water in my house from Katrina. It was fresh water. No saltwater even from the local estuary-which starts about 1 mile from my house.
The hurricane will drive the ships, crews, and equipment away from the wellhead and delay stopping the blowout. But aside from that, we have bigger things to worry about from a hurricane than oil contamination.
In the interest of accuracy, this needs to be fixed. Hopefully few dopers will read this thread and I won’t be widely embarrassed…
First, I do live in the area-S. Louisiana. But I do not live 1 mile from an estuary. I live 1 mile from the freshwater marsh which merges into the brackish water estuary several miles away. It doesn’t make much practical difference, but it needed to be corrected.
Second, there is no chance that measurable quantities of oil (traces-of course. early on when the winds were right we could smell the oil 20 miles further inland. Hasn’t happened again in weeks) will get to land areas in Louisiana. The distances are too great. But certainly, when the oil is just offshore (and on the beaches) of Mississippi, Florida, and Alabama-which it presently is, a hurricane is going to deposit oil on the land in those states. It will be a mess. Nothing compared to what the seawater will cause, but a mess. So I am quite wrong to say oil won’t be deposited on land by the hurricane. And in Louisiana, oil will be deposited on the marshes and estuaries. It is just that we have 20 or more miles of estuaries before the oil can reach land. Down in Burras, and near the mouth of the river, sure there would be oil deposited. Whether anyone would notice or could detect it from the ambient conditions is questionable.
So, I was sloppy and guilty of thinking of only my situation in my post.
As for goundwater contamination-I don’t see how that will ever be possible.
