In my own experience it most definitely is. I have over eighty gigabytes of music because I’ve collected the collections of a few friends. Sometimes I’ll test my theory by continuing to listen to those songs which didn’t grab me in the first three seconds. Without exception I have not liked them. So my assertion is that anyone who has musical talent that matches my tastes is likely to be able to indicate their talent immediately in their music.
I dunno. It could be a bit of confirmation bias or it could be a genuine thing. I’ve often wondered the same thing, as I cannot recall a piece of music that I didn’t like immediately upon first listen subsequently growing on me with additional plays.
Depends on the music. 3 seconds of most rap music is enough to tell me I won’t like it. 
No, generally not. It often is within 30 seconds, though.
It’s accurate more than half the time for me, but occasionally I purchase a used CD at places where I could listen to it before I bought it where I would buy something I think I like but I rarely listen to anymore, and some times I buy a CD without knowing the contents and I originally hate it but it grows on me (for instance, Panic at the Disco’s Pretty. Odd. (I really liked the first track right away. It sounds more like their previous stuff and it loudly proclaims that they’re “still the same”. Ironically the rest of the album is a big departure from their previous stuff.)
Pop music? Yes. Anything else? Almost certainly not.
I defy anyone to fairly assess Yes’ “Close to the Edge” based on the first three seconds. 
Not for me. Sometimes it takes many listens over several months for a song to connect with me. And then, sometimes that won’t work and I’ll ignore a song for a while and come back to it and find out it’s really working for me. Sometimes a song hits with me right away, but I usually have to live with it for a while.
I’d be a horrible music critic.
Not at all. I know of plenty of examples where the only part of a song I like is the refrain, and that doesn’t come in until about a minute into the song.
Same here. When I hear a rap opening, experience has taught me to just switch the station or turn off the music altogether.
People keep saying “You can’t say that you hate ALL rap, because you haven’t heard it all.” My response is that I’ve never, EVER liked any rap that I’ve heard, and I get exposed to it just by going about my business. Some businesses play rap. I might stay in that business long enough to establish that they are playing two raps in a row, and then I get out, never to darken their door again. My neighbors to the south and to the east play a lot of rap, and I’ve never heard any that I like.
As for other genres, sometimes I know that I’ll like a piece of music right off, and sometimes I’m undecided.
Definitely not with classical music. Have you ever listened to all of Also Sprach Zarathustra?
I don’t think it is with me because there are so many songs I have on my iTunes and that I don’t listen to right away because I resist change. Then when I’m not near the computer and I don’t have a chance to turn to a new song right away and I’m forced to listen to it, many times I end up liking it in spite of myself. In some cases it’s that I needed to give it a chance, in others it’s that I needed to listen to it once or twice.
If it’s popular mainstream music, chances are the answer is yes. It’s pretty much designed to have this kind of appeal. With some of the music I listen to, no.
Eh, I have to give it a little longer, if just because I like a lot of techno/electronica. A lot of those songs have intros that are quite long and often aren’t at all indicative of what the rest of the song’s going to sound like. I give those a good minute or two before deciding.
I’ve also had songs where it sounded good for the first 30 seconds, then pulled stupid crap afterward.
I know what you mean! I’m not surprised if I can instantly like a song, but I really can’t instantly dislike a song.
I need to “bond” with a piece of music, so it’s familiar and I know it. Only then can I decide if I dislike it or if I was just hesitant because it was unfamiliar. There are plenty of songs I didn’t care for on first (or second or third or fourth) listen, but love them now.
No way! My tastes change and vary. Like zweisamkeit, sure, I can instantly like a song, but it might take years for me to start liking it.
My general rule is that I don’t like a song after I’ve heard it 7 times, I probably don’t need to bother. 3 seconds? That’s barely enough time to know if I like a smell, let along a song.
Nope. I can’t tell whether a song is clever, or becomes interesting at the end, in three seconds. I can’t even always tell on the first listening of the entire song whether I like it.
Like Freudian Slit, I’ve found that forced exposure to songs has led to me liking them even if they didn’t immediately strike my fancy.
The most compelling cite I can think of is a job with my buddies; they listened to a Shania Twain CD ALL DAMNED SUMMER. You’re not going to find Twain on my ipod but I still know every word and I remember that summer fondly.
3 seconds just isn’t long enough. Some songs take awhile to get going. The protracted motorcycle revving at the beginning of I Would Do Anything for Love is silly and used to drive me crazy, now I cherish it as a part of a song I love.