I sometimes make the trip between Europe and the Middle East.
Does anyone around Iraq/Syria/Afghanistan have access to missiles that can down a commercial airliner?
I don’t know much about this but I would not be surprised to learn the Iraqi government has something laying around. If they do, I would not put it past ISIS to steal a couple of them.
Syria has had access to the Buk launcher, the current likely suspect in the shooting down of MH17, since 2011. The SA-7 Grail has been used in Iraq and Afghanistan, with al-Qaeda training manuals on the weapon found in Mali, although it’s usually aimed at helicopters.
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Syria has had access to the Buk launcher, the current likely suspect in the shooting down of MH17, since 2011.
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I noticed on my last flight, the plane made a slight detour around Syria and flew straight through Iraq.
[QUOTE=Mr. Kobayashi]
The SA-7 Grail has been used in Iraq and Afghanistan, with al-Qaeda training manuals on the weapon found in Mali, although it’s usually aimed at helicopters.
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When I first saw the photo in your link I was like “Wow! Either that black guy is huge or that white guy is tiny!”, but then I saw the shadows which broke the illusion caused by the camera angle.
Iraq has a contract for SA-22 SAMs with Russia, which are not quite as capable as the missile believed to have shot down the airliner. However, and SA-22 is plenty capable of attacking a cruising airliner, while an SA-7 (mentioned earlier) simply is not.
I do not know whether Iraq has taken delivery of the SA-22 systems. I suspect they also have longer range systems, but I am not sure of that.
Did they ever take possession of that 2.4 billion USD arms package (which included Hawk SAMs, a similar system to the Buk implicated in the MH17 shootdown)? It was mentioned widely in the press around Aug 2013, but I don’t know if it ever went through.
The biggest danger in the region to airliners would be the IDF and the USN.
Shooting down commercial liners is a great way to get on everyones shit list.
With the SA-7 the idea is to strike on take-offs and landing, as commercial flights cruise above its effective range. This was attempted in Mombasa, fortunately they missed the plane.
Sure, which has nothing to do with the OP’s question.
I wasn’t aware of that, but typically it takes a couple years to build and deliver such a system when there isn’t a hot production line. My WAG is that those systems most likely have not been delivered, since that was a fairly recent announcement.
It was the usual slumgullion of goodies, with (sticking to SAMs) Stingers, Avengers, and Hawks. Not I-Hawks, which made me think they were planning on grabbing them from some depot, as I don’t think the Hawk production line’s been active in the States ever since the USA switched to I-Hawk. Then again, I dont know how similar the systems are. I’ve also no idea if the motors’d still be good after all that time in a depot, assuming that’s where they’d be sourced from, or whether the motors are compatible with I-Hawk.
Hopefully cooler heads prevailed. I’d be as thrilled to give the Iraqis a medium range radar guided SAM system, as I’d be to give one to the Afghans. Anyway, I haven’t found any data one way or the other on what INA has in that regard since the US officially left.
Sure, if the plane doesn’t take off or land. It shot down an AC-130 over Iraq in 1991 so they’re capable of taking down a plane in flight, not just helicopters.
To the OP’s question. Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Israel and Lebanon all require overflight permissions for any air traffic.
Most of those countries Civil Aviation Departments will issue those permits based on either their routing, or the requested routing of the aircraft trying/seeking permission to overfly.
Specifically Iraq, is transitioning back to a civilian air traffic/ and civil aviation ministry after having both functions operated by the US Military for the last several years.
Is Iraq safe to fly over? Yes, provided you fly at the permitted altitudes, on the correct airways, and at the approved times.
There has been a huge amount of civilian air traffic operating both in and out of, as well as overflying Iraq for the last 10 years. Even during the height of military operations there.
If your question is more general such as will some jerk with a portable ground to air missile take a shot at me as I fly over? It has happened. The majority of the incidents were involving aircraft transitioning at lower altitudes and therefor more exposed to the threats.
If you want a professional opinion on “where is it really dangerous” I’d say taking of or landing at any of the Bay Area’s 3 major airports, especially KSFO and KOAK.
3 major airports, San Francisco, Oakland, and San Jose, all with very different approach and departure patterns, all three areas often with completely different weather.
You’ll be in quite the aerial ballet / airshow without ever knowing it.
Cheers
Interesting.
As long as the plane in flight is at roughly 5,000 feet or lower, which is not a cruising airliner that the OP asked about.
True. Didn’t mean to give the idea that the SA-7 was anywhere like as dangerous as, say, the Buk launcher. Just thought it was worth throwing out there as an anti-air weapon that we know is in the area and miscreants have access to.
It seems Emirates doesn’t think it is safe to fly over Iraq.