As I write this, it is unclear who will win the 2020 presidential race. But sadly, one way or another, you have to admit, there’s little enthusiasm for Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
That is why I have to ask. Next time around, should the Democrats try playing the liberal card again?
The last time they did this was in 1988. It was an interesting race. And I am one of the few people old enough to remember. Democrat Michael Dukakis was initially winning. Or so they said. Then his Republican opponent, George Bush, Sr. ran a very dirty campaign. And he won that way. Or so they said.
Also, it is interesting. Bernie Sanders insisted to have his delegates given a voice at the convention. He didn’t win. But he was also looking to the next time around, when maybe he, or some other über liberal may win the nomination.
A liberal Democrat candidate would get the younger vote. And who knows how he would resonate with African Americans and other (so-called) minority groups.
Could that be the way to go? They’ve tried everything else.
Too early to say. Depends on your analysis of the final results. Do Democrats totally give up on the rural white voters? Are they a lost cause at this point? Is the path to a stable coalition through the various Latino communities or is it suburban women? Is the future of the party the young voters who will grow up to be middle aged voters over the next 2-3 elections?
Totally depends. If you run a progressive like Bernie, you’re probably counting on the youth and that’s a traditionally unreliable cohort. If you run AOC say, how many of the suburban women do you alienate? What about the Cubans and Mexicans? Is there an old-school pro-labor Democrat that can maybe shave off a bunch of the Trump coalition once he’s no longer in the picture with his cult of personality?
I think policies are much less important in the primaries and even in the general. It’s about name recognition and positive associations, charisma and all that. I don’t for a second believe Trump won the 2016 primaries because of policies and, for the most part, neither did Biden in 2020.
Both elements are needed - lack of charisma doesn’t get low info voters to the polls and charisma is needed to hold the left wing on board despite centrist policies, and the structural EC/state disenfranchisement of liberals means moderate is the only way to take the presidency or senate.
Who does a liberal candidate win over? Biden already has more votes than any other Presidential candidate. Anyone who was slightly inclined towards the Democratic side showed up and voted.
Is a liberal candidate going to win over conservatives somehow? Picture that the other way around. Conservatives who are particularly forthright about their most extreme views do not have any crossover appeal with liberals so why would we expect the same in reverse?
America may need a liberal candidate but it sure doesn’t want one.
Yup. This is the formula that has worked for Democrats for 60 years going back to Kennedy and yet they keep trying something else. To select the next candidate Democrats should ask themselves who is the closest to Obama,Clinton and Kennedy (Carter in 76 was also similar). I think Cory Booker was the clear answer this year and I suspect he would have won comfortably. He could be the answer in 2024 or perhaps Mayor Pete. Unfortunately I suspect the nominee will be Harris who is exactly the kind of careerist politician who keeps losing Presidential general elections.
The party doesnt “try” anything. The voters pick the candidate they prefer. Joe is quite charismatic in a likable way. The GOP hate machine tried all sorts of shit on him, and none of it stuck.
Mayor Pete fits the model- except he has no national experience and is openly gay- which doesnt seem like it would appeal to the voters in 2024. He also did very poorly in the primaries, but shoudl do better.
Well, Joe is a careerist politician and he will win this one.
We see this type of sour grapes election after election : “Why oh why wont the Dems vote for the kind of candidate I want, instead of the one they want?”
Yeah by party I meant collectively through primaries. Joe will pull this one out but by the skin of his teeth against a highly unpopular incumbent during a pandemic which killed 200000+ Americans and with an unemployment rate of 8%. I don’t think it’s a good template for the future.
As for Mayor Pete I am assuming he gets some national experience in the next four years. I think openly gay is becoming less and less of a problem every election cycle and youthful charisma can overcome a lot of weaknesses. A black guy called Barack Hussein Obama wouldn’t have seemed a promising candidate before he actually won.
Incidentally I don’t think this preference for relative youth is necessarily ideal for actually being President. Kennedy,Clinton and especially Obama were good Presidents but all three would have been better with another 10 years of experience under their belt. But youth and charisma does seem to be what general election voters respond to at least for Dems.
It is just that there are a lot more fucking racists than anyone thought. But Joe wins vs a incumbent.
Yes, Pete gets more and more electable every 4 years, no doubt. 2020 was too soon. I am thinking 2028, maybe Joe will give him a cabinet job or something.
Yeah. People—the masses of people, at least—don’t get enthusiastic about policies, or competence, or where a person falls on the political spectrum. They get enthusiastic about charisma.
I sometimes think that the best way to win the presidency would be to think like a Hollywood casting agent, and pick the person you would pick to star in a blockbuster movie about a president.
If that person is totally unqualified and/or uninterested in actually doing the job once they get elected, have them act as a figurehead and/or resign right away, and make sure their running mate is the person you really want in the White House.
Or pure, unadulterated animus. But I agree, policy wonks and technocrats have no place in American elections any more. Social media has ensured that. Charisma and the ability to orate have everything to do with it.
These are the last 9 men the Republicans have run for president.
Donald Trump
Mitt Romney
John McCain
George W. Bush
Bob Dole
George H. W. Bush
Donald Trump
Gerald Ford
Richard Nixon
These are the people that Trump defeated in the 2016 primaries.
John Kasich
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
Jim Gilmore
Chris Christie
Carla Fiorina
Rick Santorum
Rand Paul
Mike Huckabee
Reagan can be said to have had charisma. Who else on that list did? And, no, I don’t consider Trump to have charisma.
Both parties have to pick their candidates from the available stock. The people who lost to Trump included five governors and four senators. That the voters went for a non-politician celebrity dumpster fire is interesting, but not predictive.
You can’t pull a charismatic capable politician out of a hat. Being a fine orator will not win an election. Biden will win and that’s not a description of him. Nobody knows ahead of time the proper qualities for winning the presidency. They seem to change each election. Remember when everybody was saying that Biden couldn’t possibly win? Then everybody talked about a blue tsunami.
Trying to predict four years out what kind of person should be nominated to win a hypothetical election against an unknown candidate is meaningless noise. Everybody is always wrong until hindsight allows them to cheat.
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