I like to play with www.270towin.com. Right now there are 9 states in play. As I see it, Romney needs Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and one other swing state. Worrying about the rest of the country is a waste of time.
I can see an alternate scenario where Romney loses Ohio and Virginia but wins Michigan and Wisconsin, due to his background and his running mate.
MI, WI, and PA are important simply because if Romney wins any one of those states his path gets a lot easier.
It’s a little fanciful to believe his “background” matters here. Voters don’t care that Romney lived in Michigan 50 years ago and that his father was the governor in the late 1960s. On the other hand they may care that he opposed the auto bailout.
Something has to explain why except for the post-DNC bounce period, Michigan has been consistently close.
It looks like Nate Silver has incorporated the debate into his latest forecast. The bottom line: Obama may lose Florida (he’s now showing it pink), but will win the election.
Gosh, it pains me to keep bursting your bubble. I’m older than most Michiganders and I’m too young to have voted for George Romney for governor. To most of my fellow residents, he’s a forgotten governor. I was also too young to have voted for his wife for US Senator, but she got her ass handed to her. So it’s not people in Michigan ever went “ahhhhhh! Romney!”
Am I the only one who has found the change of tone in this thread humorous?
Nope, I’ve found it quite droll as well.
Has he done something special to “incorporate the debate into his latest forecast” or do you just mean he updated it with today’s polling data?
The latter.
shrug Only a very few people were willing to “call” the election for Obama even at the beginning of the thread. Look back.
Ah, you’re back. Your absence seemed a bit conspicuous…
So he fell behind in the polling for the first time, but he’s got a 76% chance of winning.
Unless Romney gets another boost his debate bounce may tighten the race, but it won’t win him the election. Any Republican has an uphill battle in the electoral college. Even if Romney flips Florida he’s got to flip a few other states as well. If the next debates are declared “draws” by the media, then the story will shift to “Romney’s victory in the first debate did not alter the fundamentals of this election.” It will still be close in the popular vote, with the EC magnifying the result. If Ryan and Romney “win” the remaining debates, or if there’s major bad news for Obama, it’s anyone’s race. Silver’s simulations show Obama winning in about 80% of the trial runs, but the margins are predicted to be tight.
Yes, because national polls do not necessarily relate to the results of the electoral vote. This has been explained to you frequently. Do you not comprehend this?
That’s what’s calling it for someone entails. Somebody then responded that I was out of touch. I then asked, “How out of touch could I be if Romney is competitive?”
270towin turned MI and PA blue a couple of weeks ago. If they start swinging again, then Romney will have a lot more options. I’m a Republican myself, so I wouldn’t mind. Romney has gotten some better results in the last couple of polls, but not got enough to change colors.
Because it’s a silly assertion.
You’ll eat these words.
Pay attention to the individual state polls. And realize that Nate Silver’s analysis incorporates the results of several polls, and evaluates the Electoral College advantage, which is still Obama’s, like it or not.
Edit to add: look at this chart.
Notice how many swing states Romney needs to win. Any many fewer Obama needs. Now do you understand why the odds remain in Obama’s favor? The hole Romney dug himself through September was very deep.