Is it too early to say Romney has lost?

[adaher]

@Elendil_s_Heir

I have to admit these latest polls have made me just a wee bit more anxious about Obama’s chances. I’m also afraid the Veep is going to say something stoopid in his debate with Ryan on Thursday, and that won’t help.

The townhall debates have often been important. If Obama can channel a little Bill Clinton he can turn things around.

But if Obama’s the ivy tower professorial type we on the right make him out to be… Well, things could get even worse.

[bup]

@Really_Not_All_That_Bright

I’m an Obama supporter, and I’d still be voting for Obama if I had a vote

Bummer about your felony conviction.

[Jas09]

@adaher

And a North Carolina poll says that state is now out of play. And Romney leads in Colorado. Intrade has reacted by dropping Obama below 60%.

While I’m pretty bearish on Obama right now, that seems like a buying opportunity. I’d put it around 70-75% right now - right where we were before the conventions.

[Tamerlane]

@Really_Not_All_That_Bright

Remember, most Americans hadn’t seen much of him actually talking before this; he spent most of the Republican primary debates just standing there while the others attempted to out-Poe’s Law each other.

This is very much like what happened with Obama in the last election cycle. A number of pundits immediately after the first debate were scoring it slightly in favor of McCain, because he more doggedly stuck to his talking points, often a recipe for success. But polls showed the public were more taken with Obama’s performance. Turns out that whole calm, thoughtful thing ( that pundits were already well aware of, so it was no surprise to them and didn’t factor strongly into their analysis) was perhaps a surprise to the American public at large. In other words Obama didn’t come off as a kook to a large number of people that hadn’t been following the campaign before, which translated into greater public comfort with him.

[adaher]

@Jas09

While I’m pretty bearish on Obama right now, that seems like a buying opportunity. I’d put it around 70-75% right now - right where we were before the conventions.

I think it’s actually been about 50-50 from the start. Maybe 60-40 if we assume Obama should maintain a 1-2 point lead on average throughout the race.

[adaher]

@Tamerlane

This is very much like what happened with Obama in the last election cycle. A number of pundits immediately after the first debate were scoring it slightly in favor of McCain, because he more doggedly stuck to his talking points, often a recipe for success. But polls showed the public were more taken with Obama’s performance. Turns out that whole calm, thoughtful thing ( that pundits were already well aware of, so it was no surprise to them and didn’t factor strongly into their analysis) was perhaps a surprise to the American public at large. In other words Obama didn’t come off as a kook to a large number of people that hadn’t been following the campaign before, which translated into greater public comfort with him.

The difference is that in 2008 the public wanted to support Obama but needed to know that he was a credible Presidential candidate. In 2012, the public wants to remove Obama but needs to know that there is a credible alternative.

[jayjay]

@adaher

The difference is that in 2008 the public wanted to support Obama but needed to know that he was a credible Presidential candidate. In 2012, the public wants to remove Obama but needs to know that there is a credible alternative.

“The public”. Hmmm…doesn’t look like all THAT much of a majority, there. No, “the public” does not want to remove Obama. Republicans want to remove Obama. And not even all of those. Larry Pressler (former Republican senator from SD) just endorsed Obama over the weekend.

[adaher]

Obama’s job approval has been consistently under 50%, although it barely got to 50% during the President’s post-convention bounce.

that implies that a slight majority do not think he’s doing a good job. Presumably, they would want to remove him.

In addition, the last time the question “Has the President earned reelection” was asked, 54% said he did not:

The Hill Poll: Voters say second term for Obama undeserved, country is worse off

That says that a slight majority of voters would like to replace Obama. If that wasn’t the case, there would never have been a race to begin with. It would have been 1984 or 1996 all over again.

[Fiddle_Peghead]

But the public isn’t monolithic. You make it sound like everyone wants to get rid of Obama when that most obviously isn’t the case. Why do you have to do things like that? Why can’t you just say half the country wants to get rid of Obama?

ETA: I realize that’s what you’re doing now, just not in #486.

[HurricaneDitka]

@Tamerlane

This is very much like what happened with Obama in the last election cycle. A number of pundits immediately after the first debate were scoring it slightly in favor of McCain, because he more doggedly stuck to his talking points, often a recipe for success. But polls showed the public were more taken with Obama’s performance. Turns out that whole calm, thoughtful thing ( that pundits were already well aware of, so it was no surprise to them and didn’t factor strongly into their analysis) was perhaps a surprise to the American public at large. In other words Obama didn’t come off as a kook to a large number of people that hadn’t been following the campaign before, which translated into greater public comfort with him.

It wasn’t just the pundits that said Romney won. Surveys by just about everyone doing surveys on who won debate found that debate watchers felt Romney won by huge, often record-setting margins.

[DigitalC]

Not even close to that either. Close to half the voters, and Republicans are more reliable voters than Dems.

[HurricaneDitka]

@Tamerlane

This is very much like what happened with Obama in the last election cycle. A number of pundits immediately after the first debate were scoring it slightly in favor of McCain, because he more doggedly stuck to his talking points, often a recipe for success. But polls showed the public were more taken with Obama’s performance. Turns out that whole calm, thoughtful thing ( that pundits were already well aware of, so it was no surprise to them and didn’t factor strongly into their analysis) was perhaps a surprise to the American public at large. In other words Obama didn’t come off as a kook to a large number of people that hadn’t been following the campaign before, which translated into greater public comfort with him.

It wasn’t just the pundits that said Romney won. Surveys by just about everyone doing surveys on who won debate found that debate watchers felt Romney won by huge, often record-setting margins.

[Marley23]

@adaher

Obama’s job approval has been consistently under 50%, although it barely got to 50% during the President’s post-convention bounce.

Not true. You also seem to be relying on a weird definition of “bounce.” The Democratic ended a month ago; even before the debate you could not Obama’s improved standing a convention bounce. Those were gains in the polls. The whole concept of a bounce is that it’s temporary and short lived. You’re not the first person to do this; some Republicans seems to have decided that any gains from the convention should be called a bounce in the hope they will just go away.

Anyway, Obama’s job approval rating remains over 50 percent.

Fifty-one percent of American adults surveyed in Monday’s release approve of the president’s job performance, compared with 44 percent who disapprove.

@adaher

that implies that a slight majority do not think he’s doing a good job. Presumably, they would want to remove him.

“Do you approve of the job he’s doing?” and “Should someone else be president?” are different questions. That’s particularly true in a one-on-one election.

[Lantern]

@adaher

Obama’s job approval has been consistently under 50%, although it barely got to 50% during the President’s post-convention bounce.

that implies that a slight majority do not think he’s doing a good job. Presumably, they would want to remove him.

Actually Obama’s job approval numbershave held up remarkably well during his post-debate polling slump. He is currently at 53-42 in Gallup. This leads me to suspect his poll numbers will also bounce back in the next few days.

[Really_Not_All_That_Bright]

@HurricaneDitka

It wasn’t just the pundits that said Romney won. Surveys by just about everyone doing surveys on who won debate found that debate watchers felt Romney won by huge, often record-setting margins.

@HurricaneDitka

It wasn’t just the pundits that said Romney won. Surveys by just about everyone doing surveys on who won debate found that debate watchers felt Romney won by huge, often record-setting margins.

Errk! A bot!

[HurricaneDitka]

@Really_Not_All_That_Bright

Errk! A bot!

No, not a bot, just a double-tap

[HurricaneDitka]

@Marley23

Not true. You also seem to be relying on a weird definition of “bounce.” The Democratic ended a month ago; even before the debate you could not Obama’s improved standing a convention bounce. Those were gains in the polls. The whole concept of a bounce is that it’s temporary and short lived. You’re not the first person to do this; some Republicans seems to have decided that any gains from the convention should be called a bounce in the hope they will just go away.

I actually think Democrats are doing exactly this same thing with regard to Romney’s gains in the polls following the debate.

• that includes Nate Silver calling it a “bounce”

[pulykamell]

Well, as I posted in the Ohio thread, Nate Silver’s latest tweet says:

Awaiting a couple more polls, but possible our model will show its largest one-day swing of the year.

I’m guessing this swing isn’t in Obama’s favor…

[Really_Not_All_That_Bright]

How did you double tap five minutes apart?

@bup

Bummer about your felony conviction.

Convicted of being a British citizen, as it happens. Nearly as bad.

[HurricaneDitka]

@Really_Not_All_That_Bright

How did you double tap five minutes apart?

I blame Bill Gates. IE9 sat there and spun for a few minutes, I thought it was stuck so I refreshed the page.