ETA: Ninja’d, but I actually have the URL, so I win! 
I notice that the RCP average is made by conflating polls from a number of organizations.
In the Florida numbers, all pols have Obama ahead by about 1%, except for a pol from an organization I had never heard of, “WeAskAmerica”.
So I looked them up, and it turns out that We Ask America is the polling arm of a company called Xpress Professional Services. Xpress Professional Services is owned by a trade association called the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association, which was formed in 1893.
The IMA has opposed laws against child labor, supported laws discriminating against women in the workplace, opposed Social Security, opposed trade unions, and
[
](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_Manufacturers’_Association)
We Ask America, their polling organization, has been criticized over it’s methodology. Cite and cite and cite. The polling organization and it’s owners have a clear agenda and bias, and seem to skew results regularly.
Remove that from the RCP numbers, and Obama is still ahead of Romney.
Even assuming those numbers are representative, yes. Did you forget that you called the election for Romney? He needs to win all three of those states, remember.
I may be eventually proven wrong, but the question is, am I out of touch. If Romney is highly competitive, how could that mean I’m out of touch.
No, but that’s OK: In which I meet the President and smooch the First Lady - Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share - Straight Dope Message Board
Anduril: didn’t you say you were a Hillary-supporting foreigner in 2008? Is that still the case? What country do you live in?
The perfect opening for Hilary to mount a rogue candidacy. Call your girl and tell her to get on it!
The only poll so far today, taken from the debate and the day after the debate.
It shows +3 for Romney in Colorado, but the last poll from these guys was +1 for him anyway. It also doesn’t factor in the latest jobs numbers, so maybe that’ll be blunted next week.
What I really want to see is more polls from Ohio. Romney has been trailing there for the past month, and I would be amazed if a solid debate performance would somehow make him competitive there.
What odds do you give him? Nate Silver’s model (which doesn’t fully reflect the debate or the unemployment figures) gives him 20%. Intrade gives Romney 35%. I put the odds in between those 2. If you are saying Romney has a 95% chance then you are either out of touch or you should be heading over to intrade to secure boatloads of cash. If you give Romney 60%… that’s outside the consensus. But hardly out of touch per se IMHO.
Sam Wang’s polling-only model places Romney below 5%, which I am guessing is mis-specified. But until the research goes through a couple of rounds we won’t know for sure. That could take a decade. Or not: if Romney wins with 300 electoral votes, methinks Wang’s model is falsified. http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/05/predictions-october-5th-presidentsenate/#more-6862
Because you didn’t say he would be highly competitive. You said he had already won the election.
I’ve seen similar changes from electoral vote calculations (Obama is now at around 72% probability of winning vs 82% before the first debate)
One question I have: what sort of person changes who they will vote for based on a debate?
That is, in general, you know what policies they stand for, and you know that you agree with candidate A’s policies more than you agree with candidate B’s policies. Why would candidate B doing better in a debate change who you will vote for?
Have any of you Dopers changed your mind based on this or any past debate? If so, can you explain your reasoning?
The question misses the point. Romney could easily improve his chances of winning by 10-20% without switching a single voter by doing two things: motivating his supporters to vote and convincing undecideds.
If you’re a low-information voter who basically tunes into the debates, makes a choice, and then goes back to watching American Idol, then what you saw was a relatively centrist and affable candidate against a beleaguered President.
And if you’re a strong conservative, you saw your Party’s standard-bearer finally take down that arrogant Muslim who thinks Kenyan values trump American can-do spirit.
Although (and this is something I should’ve brought up in another thread of mine), if you think the President is an arrogant Muslim with Kenyan values, would you have stayed home regardless?
I’m an Obama supporter, and I’d still be voting for Obama if I had a vote, but Romney’s debate performance certainly made him more plausible. Remember, most Americans hadn’t seen much of him actually talking before this; he spent most of the Republican primary debates just standing there while the others attempted to out-Poe’s Law each other.
I have to admit these latest polls have made me just a wee bit more anxious about Obama’s chances. I’m also afraid the Veep is going to say something stoopid in his debate with Ryan on Thursday, and that won’t help.
The evidence suggests that the answer is yes. The proportion of people who satisfy the likely-voter screens and plan to vote from Romney is smaller than the proportion agreeing with such sentiments.
This isn’t that unusual. Think of the liberals you know who don’t necessarily vote every election. Do they tend to be more moderate or extreme in their political beliefs? Certainly in my experience (which may be colored by my age), the unreliable voters among liberals I know tend to be not very enthusiastic about Obama because he is seen as too far to the right.
Shayna cited the Gallup poll yesterday. They switched to a likely voter model today, and the result:
Romney 49, Obama 47
And a North Carolina poll says that state is now out of play. And Romney leads in Colorado. Intrade has reacted by dropping Obama below 60%.