And to have failed to accomplish this perfectly subjective goal, what would he have had to do? Parroted Obama’s policies in regard to health care and foriegn affairs? Make charges that a six-year-old with internet access could easily disprove? Forget the Persian Gulf existed? Disowned most of the positions he had argued forcefully during primary season?
I agree that this are all major disqualifications, but I don’t think he needed to go quite as far as this to disqualify himself.
I maintain my earlier contention that Nevada, Iowa and Colorado are the three states Obama needs to win to get re-elected, and is at most risk of losing.
And it seems, based upon his and Romney’s travel current travel, they would agree.
I agree that those are very important, but if he has OH (and he has a small but relatively stable lead there) then he just needs one of those three to win (assuming he keeps states like WI and PA, which he has a larger lead in).
I’m assuming the absolute worst in OH and FL and VA for Obama. Also operating under the assumption that he’ll hold PA, WI, MI and NH. That means he needs IA, CO and NV-- and those are ridiculously close. But. Obama really has a huuuge advantage with his GOTV ground game in two of those three states.
“Sentient Meat” would be a great Dope name.
You forgot Obummer and Chairman 0/Zero (a very, very clever take on Chairman Mao!). Two weeks from today, I hope the best nickname for Romney is simply, “Who?”
I think that’s a bold assumption. Since the debate, the polls there have been:
Tie, R+4, Tie, O+1, R+1, O+9 (!), R+2, R+2.
Losing in half the polls, and tied in another 25% is hardly a sure thing.
I think, overall, that when the OP posted “Is it to early to say Romney has lost?” the answer would have to be “Yes.”
Huh? There is only one poll listed which includes post-debate figures: Rasmussen’s Tuesday poll (R+2).
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-12
4 out of the 5 national polls show a move towards Obama and the TPM national average is now +2 for him. We will have to wait a few days to be sure but this may be early evidence of a post-debate bounce.
Oh, man! I would so love that. I feel a little better now.
Had a robopoll call last night, asking me about the Presidential and U.S. Senate races (incumbent Sherrod Brown vs. GOP challenger Josh Mandel) here in Ohio. The poll was commissioned by the American Future Fund, which I learned when I checked Wiki is connected with the pro-Romney Koch Brothers. I don’t think I gave them the answers they wanted.
Sorry, I meant since the first debate.
Gallup, a pretty severe outlier since they switched to their likely voter model, has Obama gaining on Romney another point today with Romney at a +3 (he was up to a +7 at one point, I believe).
ETA: They also show Obama gaining in approval, up a point to 53%.
Oh, okay. Carry on.
Shoot. I was hoping Gallup would continue to be a big outlier, because whenever they are, as Nate Silver points out, they perform very poorly. 
I’m being a bit facetious, because you can’t argue with a narrowing of the gap for Obama…
Bad lip-reading Mitt: http://www.gotchamediablog.com/2011/10/read-mitt-romneys-lips.html
A Time poll has Obama +5 in Ohio. Pretty sure the 538 forecast will be above 70% again when Nate updates it next.
Thank you, that was quite amusing!
Would anyone object if we just had the election tomorrow? I am getting polling fatigue.