I actually prefer Sam Wang. He has Obama as a well over 95% favorite.
There’s also the relatively simple RCP No-Tossup map: RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House
Oh no, baby boy. One doesn’t simply ‘admit I was wrong’ after clocking in with this many confident-ass posts. You will have a nice steaming bowl of crow stew, and you will eat it without salt nor bread.
And if **Romney **wins…oh boy. I will push the imaginary button on my imaginary intercom and I will tell Ms. Hoffenfeffer to hold my calls for the day. It will be a verrry interesting day on the dope, indeed.
That doesn’t have anything to do with anything, especially since you’re ignoring the fact that Republican registration increased while Democratic registration decreased. The “primaries” excuse doesn’t work for the latter.
So he’s going to increase his share of the non-White vote from 2008? That’s a pretty hard stretch to make. As I said elsewhere, Obama may increase his share among Hispanics, but that will be the only minority group in which he would do so. And there simply aren’t enough Hispanics to make up for even a 1% loss of support among other minority groups. And that’s even assuming that the White vote isn’t any higher than what it was in 2008. If it is, that threshold becomes even higher.
Swing states 2012 vs. 2008.
I even posted this once before, it updates slowly but good luck arguing that Obama is performing anywhere close to where he was in 2008 (that’s for Ohio, ftr). He isn’t.
So your argument is “they’re wrong”, even though early voting trends conform to state registration data (showing a Republican uptick amid Democratic downturn) and not any given state polls,which show the exact opposite? Yeah, okay.
Not quite. I gave you a graph showing historical turnout all both presidential and primary elections from 1980 to 2010, showing that the numbers are pretty stable. Except for one year, 2008, which was the outlier.
Not all; state polls. There was an article on this showing the discrepancy between state and national polls to be because state polls were assuming a much higher Democratic turnout relative to 2008 than were national polls.
The “author” of that doc says in the sidebar that because OH doesn’t track registration, only the last primary the voter voted in, it shouldn’t be taken as particularly meaningful. What say you to the NV and FL numbers I showed?
Will you also throw Romney under the bus, or will you entertain the idea that conservatism is not preferred by most people?
Wow, that’s impressive. What’s the alternative?
So what? It’s looking at counties, which provide a good idea as to how the race is going there. Unless you’re going to argue that there’s a disconnect between counties and the county’s population, where a county that voted for McCain could see an increase in request ballots because of more Democrats requesting an absentee ballot in that county, or that a county which voted for Obama is seeing a decrease in requests because of Republicans choosing not to request an absentee ballot this time around-- which is possible but not likely-- you’re going to be hard to argue the underlying trend (good for Romney and bad for Obama).
What about them? Are you trying to tout a relative decrease in early votes for Democrats across the board to argue that Obama is winning? That wouldn’t make sense as most of those early voter numbers are closer to 2004 than they are to 2008.
How DARE you overlook Republican-leaning left-handed albino Eskimo lesbians! Harrumph!
The Plain Dealer, Ohio’s biggest newspaper, blasts Romney’s latest auto-jobs speech and ad: Flailing in Ohio, Romney rolls out Jeep ploy: editorial - cleveland.com
Pee-Wee has endorsed Obama. You HAVE to read it, in your head, in his voice for it to work:
Game over, man. Game over!
[PeeWeeVoice] I know you are but what am I? [/PWV]
BTW, someone asked where Paul Ryan’s been. Living near Janesville, WI, we know, and it’s one more piece of the puzzle: he’s been campaigning hard for his Congressional seat. As his latest ad finished, I said “Wow, he really is NOT planning on being Vice-President, is he?”
I’m just showing numbers that demonstrate that Obama is doing slightly worse in early voting compared to 08, but still by ahead by a margin that suggests he is probably ahead overall, to refute your point that his early voting numbers are “poop”. They’re obviously not- they’re just not quite as awesome as they were in 08.
Wow, I totally read that sentence as Paul Reubens instead of Paul Ryan and had the very weird experience of imaging Pee Wee’s campaign ad.
Now THAT is cool. Thanks for sharing!
Do I think Romney can win? Probably not. But I do think Obama can lose.
Looks as though the independent vote is in doubt for Romney…
It’s looking as though the counter-indicators to an Obama win (“National polls show Romney ahead”, “Huge independents gap”) are collapsing and coming to meet the Obama-positive state polling results as we move in on Tuesday.
Zogby’s about as credible as a random number generator.
Obama’s early voting numbers are worse than 2008. They are closer to 2004 and, in some cases, the early voting numbers for Democrats are worse than 2004. No amount of obfuscation will change that; it’s a cold-hard fact evidenced by numbers. Now Democrats almost always do better in early votes where Republicans almost always do better on election day. The fact that you’re relishing in a Democratic advantage in early votes is a bit of a head scratcher, as you should be worried because the Democratic advantage in early votes is not nearly as high as it needs to be to overcome Republican turnout on election day and nowhere near what it was in 2008.
Not really.
Zogby is trash and PPP is nothing more than a push polling organization. The Politico poll is more interesting, though Romney’s “drop” among Independents is explained in the analysis on the front page:
Though the actual data shows the opposite-- Republicans without leaners went from 41 to 40-- though Independents with leaners did go from 33 - 30. Not sure where the rest went of the Republicans went, but whatever.
And I have acknowledged that. But Obama won by a really, really big margin in 08. The early voting numbers are worse than in 08, but not a lot worse- you’re just wrong on that. They’re pretty strong in Nevada, and still show enough of an advantage in FL that I think he might be the favorite. No amount of obfuscation will change that; it’s a cold-hard fact evidenced by numbers.
Wow, Obama can lose Florida, Ohio, NC, and Virginia and still win. Clearly, this is good new for the McCain campaign.
Nevada 2012: Democratic 46.0%, Republican 38.0%
Nevada 2008: Democratic 52.0%, Republican 30.6%
In four years, that’s D-6%, R+7.4%. Ignoring Independents, that’s over a THIRTEEN point swing.
Florida 2012: Democratic 42.5%, Republican 40.3%
Florida 2008: Democratic 45.6%, Republican 37.3%
In four years, that’s D-3.1% and R+3%. Ignoring Independents, that’s a over a SIX point swing. In no world can you somehow say that either of those numbers are “not much worse” than 2008. Obama will still win Nevada, thanks largely to a growing Hispanic population, but not Florida. Going into election day, Obama will have a quarter of the lead he had in 2008 going into election day. Or to put it more succinctly.
You don’t have to believe it, and I know you won’t, but Obama’s early voting numbers really are poop-- especially when you consider the amount of time he invested in emphasizing the importance of early voting.