Pick and choose, pick and choose.
Historically, poll aggregation analysis has proven to be very aggregate. Picking and choosing and extrapolating based on select demographics and patterns has not been proven to be very accurate; indeed, it usually tends to (amazingly enough) demonstrate bias in favour of the analyst’s candidate of choice. Them’s the facts. Tuesday will reveal whether things have suddenly changed.
According to CNN here though, Obama is at 237 while Romney is only at 206. Assuming you believe those numbers, Obama doesn’t even have to win Florida…or Ohio either…to win. There are a bunch of combinations of the states considered close enough to not give to either candidate at this point, while Romney has to win a lot of the contested states to even have a chance. Working with the map, Romney would have to win Florida, Ohio and Virginia and then one other state to win the election…while Obama could lose all of those states as long as he took the rest and still win.
I think it’s still too early to tell that Romney has lost, as this wishful thinking thread has shown, but it’s not looking too good for Romney right now from where I’m sitting.
Now with more aggregation for extra aggreguracy!
(1) I think you mean accurate 
(2) Y’all keep saying this, but no one is “picking and choosing”, as much as you would like to believe. As I said elsewhere, it’s like this. Either state polls are wrong or national polls are wrong. I feel confident in saying that state polls are wrong; you think the national polls are wrong. That’s fine. We’ll see come Tuesday, won’t we?
(Fwiw, I’m more apt to believe the national polls because most state polls which have been coming out assume a much higher Democratic turnout relative to 2008 than national polls do.)
Two state polls today found Romney ahead in Michigan and tied in Pennsylvania.
http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
A second PA poll found Romney within three. Pennsylvania is in play, and if Romney were to win that one, he doesn’t need Ohio nearly as much.
Romney now has almost as many paths to victory as Obama does.
Isn’t the talking point about state/national conflict a little outdated now that Obama leads the national polls too? Or is RCP is on the conspiracy?
Well, this guy is:
Nope. Obama’s lead in swing states usually runs between 2 - 6 percentage points, on average. If you want to use RCP, Obama has a lead of 0.2 percent. One of those is wrong-- unless you want to assume that swing states really aren’t.
Oh really? What’s Obama’s lead in the swing states of Colorado, New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia?
You’re conflating Ohio with all the swing states. Ohio has been above the trend. What specific historical circumstances might explain that? Show your work.
Maybe, but not really. Ohio is the penultimate swing state, tending to be more Republican than Democrat than the nation as a whole. If Obama wins Ohio by 2%+, he will the popular election by more than his Ohio total.
…BTW> What does “show your work” mean?
So you’re just going to abandon your position just like that? First it’s Obama leads the swing states by 2-6, and now it’s Ohio is the only state we’re talking about?
Fine, then let’s talk about Ohio. Your position is that Republicans do better in Ohio than they do nationally, do I have that right? I want to make sure I have that right before we go to the actual facts (again).
Luckily they didn’t only mention Zogby. But I love the “The polls were all accurate when they showed Romney ahead with independents but now they’re all garbage when they show him tied!” arguments this is getting.
:p. Unfortunately for you and Romney, that tied PA poll reflects a +4 move towards Obama by that polling outfit since the first debate.
DailyKos did a review, and it’s amazing how common it has been for Republicans to give attention to PA on the last weekend before the electiion. They still always lose it.
Keep clutching at straws, pally.
adaher and OMG, I have a proposal for you both:
If Romney wins, I will only post positive things about Romney on this message board until inauguration day.
If Obama wins, you will only post positive things about Obama on this message board until inauguration day.
Deal?
That wasn’t me. I would have said Zogby was garbage at any point, whichever side his numbers supported.
I want Obama to win and I think he will. I think Nate Silver has the best model.
They’ll probably count “he’s the 2nd worst president we’ve ever had!” as a positive. “What, I didn’t say he was the absolute worst!”
That is literally the only polling outfit that has shown a lead for Romney in PA this election, and it has moved from +4 Romney to even.
“Aw, shucks, bad luck! What with Sandy, and Florida, and Ohio all screwed up, the voting is a total mess, and we could have battalions of lawyers fighting for months. Looks like the only thing to do is let the House of Representatives decide!”
And I wake up screaming…
So what’s the ultimate swing state?
OMG is convinced that because OH leaned R in the past, that it must ALWAYS lean R. The polls show it leans D right now- it’s not like any given state leans the same way every single election. We’ll see Tuesday night (or later!).