And we have to go all the way back to 2004 to find an election when Ohio was more blue-leaning than the popular vote. I mean, 2004! Is anyone from that period still alive?!
Well, yeah it is like another world out there!
Seriously though I only go to Reddit for the buzz out there and special subjects, I’m not a member, but I know a few things:
As I said in the post you quoted, Ohio tends to lean more Republican than the electorate as a whole, yes. In fact, I’ve said this one more than one occasion.
Obviously, I type for my own amusement.
Odd how you extrapolate from “tends [to]” to “always”. But around here I could expect no less.
It did in 08, but it was more Democratic in 04. And now, the economic numbers in OH are substantially better than nationally, so I think it’s very plausible that Obama could overperform his national numbers in Ohio.
Do I have a choice? Never been much for useless venting. I’d add to that deal. If Republicans do manage to take the Senate, even as Obama is reelected, let’s usher in a bipartisan era here until they actually screw it up.
Exactly. The claim is either trivial (Ohio might lean right but it sometimes leans left) or false (we can safely predict Ohio will lean right).
Charitable interpretation usually assumes one isn’t making the trivial claim, and proceeds to rebut the substantive one in the hope there might be some intelligent opposition to that point.
They did offer revenue increases, through closing loopholes. Democrats want rate increases. In theory, the Republican offer should be fine, since the President has said he supports lowering rates and broadening the base.
Also, if the GOP controlled all of Congress, they’d be in a position of strength regarding budget matters. Congress has more budget power than the President, and worst case, Congress can just keep on passing continuing resolutions keeping spending at current levels, which would cause spending to fall as a % of GDP over time. Obama can veto spending cuts but it would be politically impossible for him to veto spending bills that are the same levels as the previous year.
Clinton beat the Republicans soundly on the politics, but he never got another tax increase. If the GOP controls Congress, the compromise is over what to cut and how much.
Of course, Obama can get the Bush tax cuts expiration easily enough, since all he has to do is nothing and rates return to Clinton-era levels.
I know you already said that Nate Silver doesn’t matter and I know you already have been called on this, but in the interest of accuracy (with bolding for emphasis, mine):
But it’s not quite like admitting that your scientific theory was off, and that your despised opponents were right. It’s not quite like admitting that you stole a cookie from a toddler and then had lied about it.
It’s more like admitting that DST had given sway back to Standard Time.
Oh, and BTW, should Romney manage to win, I’ll admit it and concede that may optimism for Obama was mistaken.
My teenage son and I volunteered to GOTV canvass for Obama in the Cleveland 'burbs this afternoon. After 1.5 hours waiting, along with about two dozen other people, for our lists of houses-to-hit to arrive, we gave up. The worst screwup by the Obama field staff I’ve seen yet, and just two days before Election Day! Bummer.
One thing I wanted to tell **OMGABC ** was that one has to realize that overall, the very expensive (Romney is still spending a little bit more than Obama) poop from Romney has only giving him a tie in the popular vote, it is indeed very shameful when one takes into account all that money put in the effort. And Romney still got also mostly deficits in the battleground states.
IMHO Money talks and bullshit can get elected with it, but not this time, it will be close, the signs shows that it is likely that it will not be enough for the Roll Royce ticket.
