In fairness, some people just don’t like betting. I can really understand not wanting to bet with anonymous people on a message board.
Monday, November 5, 2012 in Columbus, Ohio, Team Romney and Team Obama will be conducting their own **
Battle of the Bands!!!**
Team Romney will be appearing with The Marshall Tucker Band who?
Team Obama will be appearing with Bruce Springsteen
This alone is enough for me to say it’s time to stick the fork in good ol’ Mittens.
Marshall Tucker?!?!? WTF?
Certainly not if both sides can declare victory. In a scenario where Republicans capture the Senate, they can plausibly claim that Romney was the weak link.
What I wonder is how to interpret an election where everything stays pretty much the same. If projections are right. pretty much NOTHING is going to change. Republicans are forecast to lose few seats or even gain a seat or two in the HOuse, they are forecast to gain only one seat or no seats in the Senate.
Does this mean the public likes the way things are going now?
Losing has a way of focusing the mind. So does a new four year term for the President. It was all well and good to do what they did after the midterms, they were elected to stop the Democratic agenda and to create a contrast for the next election. But if Americans vote for divided government in 2012, then Republicans have to deal. And so do Democrats. No more spending cuts in the future for tax increases right the hell now.
I’m an Obama supporter, but what’s wrong with Marshall Tucker??
Musically, nothing. However they peaked in about 1977. That’s a while ago.
yawns
(1) Just to quote myself:
Post #1540
(2) Nate Silver doesn’t know what the hell he’s talking about. The fact that you guys continue to quote him is rather astounding, to be quote honest.
Link, for the second or third time this thread. It updates slowly, not everything is the most recent data and they haven’t yet updated the top line yet, but they’ll get around to it eventually. Anywho…
In 2008, Cuyahoga cast 283,752 early votes. As of 11/04/2012, the number of early votes cast in the state was 288,216. In 2008, Democrats cast 151,296 votes versus 36,232 votes for Republicans. As of 11/04/2012, 144,618 votes have been cast for Democrats while 52,734 votes have been cast for Republicans. In 2008, Democrats led in overall votes by 41% in Cuyahoga county; today that lead is down to 32%.
In 2008, Franklin county cast 269,801 early votes; this year that number as of 11/04/2012 is 233,433. In 2008, Democrats cast 48,811 early votes while Republicans cast 40,334 votes. This year Democrats have cast 34,664 votes to 36,526 for Republicans. In 2008, Democrats led in overall votes cast in Franklin by about 3%; this year they are down by a bit less than one percentage point (~0.8%).
So while Cuyahoga has surpassed its 2008 totals, the Democratic lead from 2008 is down in both actual numbers and percentages. In the case of Franklin county, not only is the county not going to reach its 2008 early voter numbers without a massive push the last two days, but the Democratic advantage has been outright reversed. And that’s without mentioning the fact that there’s been about a 260K swing in favor of Republicans in early votes from 2008, due to decreased Democratic turnout and increased Republican turnout. As I said, utter poop, which is actually quite startling considering that Obama made it a mini-mission to get his supporters to early vote.
And just to throw this out there, here is the in house voting comparison for Cuyahoga county for 2008 and 2012. Notice the drop.
But I’m sure the fact that Nate Silver said everything is unicorns, rainbows and roses will invalidate the data provided.
There isn’t anything inherently wrong with them. But, they are kinda done aren’t they? The best Romney can muster is a group coasting on work they did a few decades ago. Yeah, they still tour but from what I can tell it’s just a rehash of the past.
ETA: ninja’d by Euphonious Polemic
So Romney is spending more than Obama now? Big deal. I doubt you said anything when Obama was outspending Romney (or McCain, for that matter). Did you happen to forget that Obama was outspending the Romney campaign early in the election? Hell, Obama was running negative ads against Romney before Romney had even secured the Republican nomination.
Most of Romney’s supporters also peaked about 1977, so it’s probably a great choice.
They’re really just a tribute band at this point, as the only original member is the singer, if I recall correctly.
I was going to express surprise that Ted Nugent wasn’t on the bill, but then he peaked about 1977 as well.
Nate says Obama’s chances are now up to 86% (88% in the now cast)
His average sees Obama getting 50.6% of the national vote…
It looks like it’s going to be a comfortable day for the Dems on Tuesday…
Oh, I can understand a reluctance to have money change hands. But AFAICT, **adaher **and OMG refuse to negotiate wagers on message board behavior, signatures, etc. There’s also a curious refusal to set odds. Upthread, in post 1569, you can see adaher blowing smoke with a non-responsive comment. We have a real signal to noise problem.
ETA: Woops, I should acknowledge that OMG summarized his views in the Skald thread though, which deserves a respectful nod.
Hah. You are funny. Or to be more acurate, the whole republican party is, the point was only to be amused at millionares investing so much on a candidate that is very likely to lose.
The big deal is indeed that not all people are fooled and if there was not all that money coming from people who instead of investing in America invest in the Caiman islands, Romney would not be as high in the polls as he is.
You mean to say 1992, when Damn Yankees second album was released.
86% is pretty close to being sure, and as a matter of fact Nate Silver challenged Joe Scarborough to bet him on the election. So Silver’s reputation is riding on this one.
So if Romney wins, how long before Fivethirtyeight is no longer affiliated with the NY Times?
Actaully, that would be an interesting side discussion - I wonder…
a) how much is the 538 brand worth?
b) Is it Nate’s property or NYT’s?
I believe it’s Nate’s, based on comments I’ve seen, but don’t hold me to that. If anything, especially if Silver nails it again, I really think that the NYT needs him a lot more than he needs it. All being on the NYT has done, as far as I can tell, is stick a paywall up on content that used to be free.
Obama may have an advantage with independent voters now. That’s the trend with the most recent polls.