Its not hard for a small shift in a few states to add up to a big shift in electoral-votes.
I think people are forgetting how this works: if Obama loses it’s bad for Nate Silver because hardcore conservatives have decided it’s bad news for Nate Silver if Obama loses and have ginned up a story to fit their interpretation. In 2008 they decided ACORN was engaged in voter fraud, and ACORN doesn’t exist anymore. That’s how hardcore conservatives work, and it’s also true that most people do not really understand how polling and statistics work. That means they’re susceptible to people who seem really confident they know how the numbers work. If Obama loses there will be a lot of handwringing about the unreliability of polls because many polls will have been off (for conservatives this will mean liberal media bias), and polling organizations and Silver and other analysis will adjust their methodologies. So in four years they may have better models. But whether they do or not, conservatives will still say the media is biased and few people will understand how statistics work. In any event, I don’t think Silver has that much to worry about.
But since there’s a LOT of pent-up demand for commercial air time (which was too scarce during the campaign), and is only now going to be available to holiday season advertisers, the TV stations aren’t going to have much to complain about.
Heh. I remember the Marine Band played that at Bill Clinton’s first Inauguration.
In a national mock election, high schoolers go bigtime for Obama: Obama Elected By American High Schoolers In Nationwide Mock Election | HuffPost Latest News
I noticed that. I wonder if anyone brought that up (who chose that selection, whether any consideration was given to its associations, and whether a statement was being attempted).
FOX News’s front page: ZOMG, Black Panthers are invading polling places in Philadelphia! The Democrats are cheating?
Shocked, shocked I am that FOX is breaking this story.
Did you see the video? A courteous African-American gentleman opened the door for some white ladies! OMG!
I can’t watch streaming video out here on the boat with my very limited internet… is that really what happened?
Wait, if it just takes being African-American and opening doors for white women… I just realized I may be married to a Black Panther.
Well, he should have at least tried to be less black looking!
OMG…A Black Courtesy
My spouse is loudly predicting that Obama will win by 300 EVs or more. I think the count will be a lot closer (although still an Obama win). A steak dinner at Bradley Ogden is riding on the outcome. Is there any chance I will have to pay up on this one?
It could happen if most of the swing states break Obama’s way, yes. He’d have to win Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Colorado along with the states that are more solidly behind him, but that’s certainly possible based on the polls.
What? AHHHHHHH! A black man gave me my *I Voted *sticker this morning! I’m still wearing it!
I’M A PANTHER!
Not a cougar?
Nate Silver is predicting an Obama win with 313. She may not be wrong.
Well, that’s cool because I held the door open for an elderly black man when I voted in South Carolina.
We’re good, baby. We’re good.
I am confident Obama will not win by 300 EVs or more. He may very well win with 300 EVs or more, though. So it depends on the exact wording of the bet.
It could just frighten old white people into staying home…which would not be the desired effect.
I love that my wife’s cousin on Facebook has posted links to dickmorris.com and breitbart.com to demonstrate how the GOP ‘tsunami’ of votes is surging to an easy Romney victory, 325-213. He’s so excited. Bless his heart.