I just had to check this thread to see who got in the decisive “no” and when.
Winner (and a pony) goes to Smapti at 11:36 yesterday (my local Eastern time).
Has Karl Rove taken his fingers out of his ears and quit muttering “I Can’t HEEEAR You!” yet?
:):)
I won’t believe it til Nate updates his projections. He still has Romney with almost a 1 in 10 chance of winning.
Golly it sure is quiet here today.
This article at Redstate actually has me howling with laughter -30 Reasons Republicans Lost the Election.
O. M. G. That is some utter lunacy. If the GOP had run the campaign they propose, Obama would have absolutely steamrolled his opponent. Who might have been…
Oh please don’t throw us into that there briar patch. Bachmann barely carried her own little fiefdom of Batshit, MN this time around.
Interesting that 538 might have gotten Montana and North Dakota Senate races wrong. I guess we downgrade Nate to only probably a witch if that happens.
And in the “wrong” direction, too. Once again, predicting a Republican win where the Democrat ekes it out. Damn liberal conspirator!
But, seriously, he should be wrong on some of the races. If every single one of his predictions turns out right, then his model may be underestimating certainty.
Agreed on both counts. It also emphasizes how reliant the model is on having a critical mass of polls. I’ll bet you could draw a pretty clean correlation between the model’s error and the frequency of polling in a race. Indeed, both ND and MT had relatively few polls, consisting largely of GOP-leaning pollsters.
The comments actually had some fairly decent comments/takedowns of the list and the R battle plan in general. On the other hand, there are some like this:
I thought it was the liberals who didn’t think that people could make the proper decisions for themselves.
Some of the comments under that article show a glimmer of self-awareness:
Well, that’s not really Rasmussen’s function. They don’t need to be any good at actually crunching numbers for the same reason a phone-sex worker doesn’t need to actually be any good in bed.
MO, the GOP ran the wrong candidate, Mitt was not will never be the right person for Pres. I was not a bit surprised when he lost. My opinion only.
Where the fuck is adaher and klaatu?
No need to read further, if the rest is as barking-mad delusional as the above.
In Montana the polls showed Tester to be ahead though. He lead in four of the last five polls and tied in the other going back to Oct 10. Relatively infrequent polls but a fairly clear pattern over a month.That's why I thought it was such an interesting test case: the polls and 538 came to different conclusions based on the state fundamentals adjustment that Nate made. It turns out he was wrong and a straightforward poll average would have got it right. Not a huge deal and I am sure he will learn from it and tweak his model if required. And I expect a really detailed post soon where he looks at how his presidential model performed, which should be worth reading.
Still gathering up all the skull fragments and brain tissue after the explosion.
Oh, you haven’t really gotten to the good parts:
[QUOTE=Transmission From RedState Alternate Universe]
13. To the Contrary, Romney Jumped To Condemn Candidates Like Todd Akin And Richard Mourdock, Because The Media Ordered Him To Do So. He presumably thought that by denouncing Republican Senate candidates and throwing away the Senate, he could save himself. But, to the contrary, the Dems just proceeded to use the tiny, but universally condemned slips to label the Republican Party in general.
[/QUOTE]
It’s strange how pulling shit out of your ass yields nothing but more shit, isn’t it?
Today is the best day.
They actually got one kinda right:
**
7. And, Yes, With ObamaCare The Most Potent Weapon In The Republicans’ Quiver, It Was A Mistake To Nominate The Guy Who Invented It.**
Or, the less loony way to phrase it: you shot yourselves in the foot, and took Obamacare off the election debate table.
ETA: Of course, the guys who didn’t invent Obamacare were utterly un-electable. So: damned if you do, damned if you don’t.