It pretty much comes down to this. When polled on individual issues, separately from Republican or Democrat issues, a large majority of Americans actually support the Democratic side on a lot of these “divisive issues”, but a lot of the Republicans don’t seem to realize it.
So if there was a large enough shock to the system, large enough to actually wake those people up to the reality that supporting the GOP means losing on a lot of issues they actually do care about, you could Save America.
The question is, how large a shock would do that? I thought COVID would be that shock, but clearly that was a mistake. But that gives us a baseline: Over a million US deaths over two years or so isn’t enough. Either more deaths in that time frame, or the same number of deaths in a shorter time frame might do it, but I’m out of the predictions game, beyond saying, “More.”