I thought about making a topic like this for a couple of months, if not this month after my polls, I’ve notice the US is a bit tense. Riots over speeches, complete panic over a button pressed that Donald Trump pushed and every tweet and action made, businesses and companies in fear of property damage and (in the case of the Trump brand) loss of revenues, it’s literally giving me a headache from the amount of coverage. Where is the cooling point?
Lets assume there is no cooling point and this roller coaster hits bottom as soon as it crashes on the ground, we end up with nationwide riots worse than what we’ve seen so far. What’ll happen to the country? Will we end up in civil war? A revolution? A dud after another dud for the next eight years?
The president is effectively - for those who voted for him - a political anti-hero. This is not grown up politics, it is not a mature democracy. The country is a basket case in terms of representing the people
You have to find a way to reinvent the political class so the choice isn’t between corporate vested interests who actually bought both milli/billionaire candidates.
Did you live through the 60s, ultimate11? If not, go rent The Sixties by CNN. After watching that, you might get some perspective. If you did live through those times… do you honestly think we are anywhere near where we were then?
Or, go watch some news feed of the aftermath of the Rodney King verdict. You want to see some riots? Show me some riots we’ve had recently like that.
And I’m not aware of people going into “complete panic” on a regular basis over tweets. That certainly sounds scary, but has no basis in reality.
Nothing much is going to happen. Trump will do a lot of bad stuff and some good stuff, perhaps even in the same proportion as other presidents. The protests and propaganda will subside to a continuous low mutter, but so long as government wages and pensions are paid, life will go on just as for the last 20 years.
Thrump is, IMHO, self-destructive. His administration will continue to be a bit too scary for most folks, including the Republican congress. It is those people that really worry me. They will get what they want to get, then start worrying about appearing to be sane enough to be reelected. The 1% will become even more overwhelmingly wealthy vs. the average American. The Left will become a powerful bastion of populism and will accomplish the traditional taming of the new president during the next midterm. This SCOTUS nomination will be hard fought, but Gorsuch will get sworn in within the next 3 months. The next opening will be right after 2018 midterms, and that nominee will be mainstream and will slide through without much trouble. Thrump will be unable to stand for reelection in 2020, and Pence will run on his own record, women will finally rise up and send him back to Indiana. The Populist Democrat, Elizabeth Warren will take office in January 2021, with geriatric Mike proclaiming that his proudest moment will be when at the end of her term, she will have accomplished absolutely nothing.
China will attaim a de facto zone of hegemony for all of SEAsia except Australia and NZealand. North Korea will have a revolution or coup, but their outward behavior won’t change all that much. Russia will ally with Iran to dominate the midEast. South America will not change much, nor will Mexico. Mexican trade with China will begin to equal trade with Canada and the US.
Geriatric ? Glass houses…
The gnome Pence is 57.
Elizabeth Warren is 67.
Hillary Clinton is 69.
Donald Trump is 70.
All these old people should be falling to their orisons and seeking forgiveness for their sins in preparation for the Great Divide instead of futtering about trying to rule people. That’s a young man’s game.
I don’t think we’re really a single country and that we’ll lurch from Red State president to Blue State president. Each administration will mostly be an angry rejection of the previous. We’ll have a low level civil war, an abortion clinic bombing here, a mass shooting there. We’ll end up like most third world countries, a layer of ridiculously wealthy elites on top of a mass of angry poors and no middle class. We’ll manage to stave off any kind of meaningful attempt at reform by keeping the poor at each others throats over race and religious differences while the wealthy become security conscious.
I think the fundamental issue is that the Trump voters are expecting their problems to be solved by attacking things they believe to be major issues even though they really aren’t. The way I understand it, the major issue is that white working class in the rust belt and other places is hurting economically. The problem is that the people representing them (all the Republican representatives and senators from places like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, as well as Trump himself) are trying to shift the blame for the cause of these problems to other issues. Currently the boogeymen include refugees from Syria, undocumented immigrants especially in places like sanctuary cities such as Austin or San Francisco, the nation of Iran, etc. How someone looking at things rationally can blame these things for the loss of jobs in the rural rust belt is beyond me. I think it’s just a rationalization to avoid having to do the hard things that could actually make a difference, such as improving education, workers rights, and encouraging new innovations rather than relying on things like coal and steel. Of course Republican politicians can read polls and they know that people with higher levels of education skew Democratic and instead of getting plans to boost higher education like Sanders was looking to do we get Betsy Devos, who seems like she was nominated to dismantle the Department of Education. I think things will continue to not improve until these voters realize that sticking their heads in the sand will not improve their lives. I’m not sure just how bad things will have to get before we reach that point
About a third of the electorate voted for Hillary, about a third for Trump, and about a third didn’t show up. I think that voting takes significantly less effort than participating in a civil war, I don’t really see why the third of voters who supported a major party will get together with the third who couldn’t be bothered to vote and put their lives at risk to take down the other third. Wouldn’t it be easier to just organize a new party or take over a third party (Libertarians are on the ballot in all states but get so few voters that any mass movement could take over their constituency) and take control through the ballot box than to lose everything comfortable in your life and start shooting at people?
It’s always best to play safe an chose a number far off not to be checkable. That was the mistake that Russian scientist made who saw America splitting into 6 nations ruled by others like Carolingian divisions. He definitely said 2010. Big mistake.
Anyway Trumpo the Magnificent is now gaining support steadily from his grateful people, 53% of likely voters approve ! So it’s all moot.
I read it to suggest it is happening now but I could be wrong.
I’d say the US is more in a Civil Cold-War. Political polarization has increased in this country…dramatically in the last few years. The two sides are more unwilling than ever to compromise (witness the republican congress with president Obama the last eight years).
Now we have large swaths of the population literally rejecting facts (not opinion but actual facts) in favor of “alternate facts” that fit their narrative. As a result it is impossible to even discuss the problems since there is no agreement on what the problems actually are.
So, it is not a hot war and I do not think we are remotely close to that but it has devolved into serious dysfunction and distrust.
We’ve been “close to civil war” on and off since our country’s inception, so anyone who is concerned about another civil war should try to study a bit of American political history to get a broader perspective. Not saying it will sway you one way or the other, but given the nature of our country, I think knowing a bit of our history in that regard is necessary to form a real opinion about your question. For instance, our country barely ratified the Constitution without fracturing, and we nearly went to civil war over whether Jefferson or Burr would be president after they tied.
No revolution, no civil war, and a big ‘no’ as well to the notion that 2016 was our final election. (If there was ever a chance that this would happen, the fact that Cheetolini is The Fascist That Couldn’t Shoot Straight has pretty much taken care of that possibility.)
No, we’ll do this the old-fashioned way: there will be midterm elections in 2018, and in the meantime, there will be plenty of constituent pressure on Congress, just like we’ve been seeing. The Capitol switchboard continues to be overwhelmed, I’m gratified to say. (Which reminds me, folks - please just call your own Congresscritters, so that the constituents of Congresscritters in the news can get through to them. It isn’t easy, these days, fighting your way through the busy signals.) And Republicans even in the most conservative areas of the country are ducking and running from town halls. (Note to Jason Chaffetz: Las Vegas is an 11-hour round trip from Salt Lake City. Denver, 15 hours. You really think all those people at your town hall weren’t Utahns? Bullshit!)
How things go from here, I can’t say. Will the Dems retake the House in 2018? Hell if I know. But nobody’s gonna take up arms against the government. Nobody’s gonna secede. (Sorry, Yes California. Well, not really. :)) This country isn’t gonna fall apart. We will do this the democratic way. Hopefully we’ll keep enough pressure on to make Congress afraid of doing serious damage to this country. But we will do this the democratic way, and with any luck, it will all work out.
There may be a political realignment as the boomers start dying en masse. Absent a disaster that dissolves systems of control, such as economic armageddon or a nuclear exchange, the idea of a violent revolution inside America is difficult to envision. What form would it take? Would it be against the government and business? The people against each other? Has a country ever had a violent revolution where a signiciant portion of its adult population is obese?
As usual in these sorts of threads, I’ll refer to Crispin Sartwell’s concept of “squishy totalitarianism.”
Gridlock. The presidency will continue to swing back and forth between parties every eight years. The opposition party will be crazy and every Republican will be called Hitler and every Democrat Lenin. Very little of substance will get done as no one will be able to compromise without getting kicked out of the party.
Federalism. As the federal government gets less done, the states will have to do more. States are less divided and partisan so there will be much more ability to try things and get things done.
Stagnation. The inability to change policies will lock in many of the current debates and people will still be fighting about the same things for decades.
Detachment. The population will bifurcate between the hyper partisans who follow politics like a religion and the rest of the people who will be disgusted and disengage from the dysfunctional political sphere.
I really don’t know if the 1000 or so protesters at Chaffetz’s town hall were Utahns or not, and whether they were all residents in his district or not (I suspect not, but that’s just speculation). It doesn’t really matter though. It was just AstroTurf. Chaffetz won re-election last year with the support of 73% of voters in his district. He won by more than 133,000 votes. He’s not in any danger and he’s not unpopular in his district. A few angry SLC libs got together to shout and stamp their feet and give Democrats around the country the talking point that “Republicans even in the most conservative areas of the country are ducking and running from town halls.” It’s not true.