Is the U.S. about to have civil war?

For reasons which I think are pretty obvious, I find myself wondering these things at the moment - and wondering whether Canada would even be far enough to escape, if it happens. Please show your work.

I don’t think we are, at least not yet. Besides the side currently in power has the lion share of the guns anyway it seems like.

But if it did happen, I don’t think Canada or Mexico would be safe places to escape. I would aim for further away.

Civil war? Highly unlikely.

Civil unrest on a level not seen since the '60s? Much more probable.

In general, I’d say that nearly all or most of political acrimony (in current times) is generated through the same neural pathway as sports fanaticism.

Bored, entertainment seeking shlubs get on TV, get on the Internet, and look for team news that is positive to the home team. They chear when their team gets a win (even if it wasn’t honest) and boo when the other team gets it.

Some small number of fanatics would, certainly, be quite willing to get into a brawl over the subject. Most just want to continue cheering and trolling on message boards and comment sections.

When 99% of reality is just something happening as words and images on the Internet, nothing really matters.

I think I might go to Canada at least initially, if only because my Canadian passport is currently being printed right now, so I have the legal right to enter and stay as long as I want. Currently pondering various contingency plans.

P.S. “the side currently in power” also includes a lot of Republicans, including quite a few vets with guns, who have plenty of reasons to be pissed off at the current administration. And they have more reasons to be pissed off every day. After all, there have already been two assassination attempts on Trump (that we know of) and neither seems to have been perpetrated by a woke undocumented lefty of color.

I don’t know why you think Canada is safer.
Maybe way up in the rural areas.

Seems to me you’re safer sheltering in place.

If you think there is civil unrest/war like behavior coming close to your house and home, you’re already screwed if you do not have all plans and prep made.

Good luck.

  • Rule of law
  • Fewer guns
  • Fewer Republicans

Watch Canadian news. Bad stuff happens there. They’re not all nice.
If US has shortages, they will have twice as many.

The right crap is spreading the world over.
I don’t think there’s any place safe.

I had thought a private island would work. But I’ve since decided that’s a foolish dream for most people.

I am at a loss as to why some are predicting a civil war.

Does anyone have an idea who might be the leaders of the civil war on the anti-MAGA side? I cannot think of any.

Is there some halfway plausible theory of how the rebels could win? I don’t think many are going to join the rebel forces without that.

Normally, a country that moves towards autocracy does not experience a civil war.

In order to have a civil war the blue states would have to band together and try to leave the union, which is never going to happen, but if the administration continues to defy court orders I think a constitutional crisis is where we will land, and it’s unclear what will happen if the Executive Branch and Judicial Branch end up going toe-to-toe, but we know who has the guns so it won’t be much of a fight. The wild card is the Congress since they have the power, if not the will, to stop this plutocratic insanity before people die. I expect them to sit on the sidelines and do nothing until it’s clear who the eventual winner is… and then join in on that side as the country collapses into chaos. We’re watching history being made before out eyes,

While talking to my own mother the other day, who is at least as progressive as I consider myself, she straight up said she thinks a civil war is coming. Now to be accurate, that could mean something more like “civil unrest”. I didn’t exactly push her for an exact definition of what that meant, and the thought was offered in what I would describe as “out of the blue” manner. But the thought is out there.

The idea that this question can be asked openly and straight-faced is frightening enough in and of itself.

We live in dangerous and unprecedented times. That much I do believe. Nothing is off the table.

I live in mid michigan. The truth of the matter is I don’t really have the financial resources to call on to move to a different country. And I don’t even know how the immigration process would work. I don’t have any particularly useful skills to call on for work paths. But the Canadian border is like right there. It’s a thought in my mind. But then I also think what good would it do me? If the United States has truly sunk this low Canada doesn’t seem far enough, but it would have to be better than here right? I also think about the fact that if I leave, and people who think like I do also leave, that’s simply abandoning the country? Is that an acceptable option at this point?

I have no answers, only questions.

There are plenty of non-Federal guns out there, plus some Federal ones that won’t be thrilled with the scenario. I can see a situation in which the Feds send the military into blue cities. I live in one of those blue cities. The Chicago Police Department and the Illinois National Guard would probably not be amused.

I agree with PhillyGuy and dolphinboy .

As I have said before, I feel the military would support Trump. They have better guns, combat training, secure communication channles, established logistics for moving food and supplies, and they already have leaders and a structure.

They would destroy the rebels without breaking a sweat.

My Gobhi is in the process of becoming an Indian citizen. She has lived in India before. She speaks Hindi. She has a masters degree.

I have no idea what country would accept me as a citizen. Plus

No, no it is not an acceptable option.

I think we may see civil unrest become much larger and angrier as the weather improves.

Civil war does not necessarily involve secession. A lot of civil wars are about the control of the country, not some parts trying to leave.

Civil unrest is nothing like civil war.

In 2020 and 2023, stores a few blocks from where I then lived, in Philadelphia, were looted. That was shameful, and it was nothing that had ever before happened close to where I lived, but it was not anything close to a civil war. If the same recurred it would be a bigger event, because Trump would order authorities to shoot looters. I also expect he would declare martial law. No one knows what martial law really is in an American context, but it would probably ramp up the fear level, tamping down riots and helping MAGA politically.

I do not think civil war, or unprecedently severe civil unrest, in the U.S., would cause Canada to liberalize its immigration requirements. I rather think the opposite. Fear of violence spreading would lead to border closures.

It is probably hopeless to say this, but violence again MAGA will not work. What will work is a Democratic Party, in which various factions show respect for each other, defeating the GOP at the polls. Trump’s economic policies are terrible. Americans are sensitive to the unemployment rate, and Trump policies will soon (maybe next year) cause great harm there. Swing voters will realize this without being hit over the head. Consider:

Why Shoppers Abroad Are Boycotting U.S. Goods

You say as I buy my $4 CAD dozen of eggs. :stuck_out_tongue:

Your cauliflower?

If people are imagining a civil war along the lines of the War of Southern Oppression, with states seceding and forming armies to battle the federal government, that’s not going to happen.

More likely is something along the lines of the Troubles - intermittent fighting between irregular militias, made up of part-time fighters, who may or may not have loose ties to political parties or state/county/municipal governments.

Think “the ICE facility in downtown Stockton has been bombed by the California Defense Regiment”, not “the Cascadian army is engaging Union forces in the Battle of Cle Elum”.

Huge anti-government protests/civil disobedience are great, but except for agents provocateurs I don’t see who actually wants to take things anyplace violent. The way it is supposed to go is, assuming the government is sufficiently dysfunctional enough that it is time to implement this option (which is disruptive, to say the least), you organise a general strike, block the roads, occupy factories, etc. Attacking/killing Federal troops, especially if you hope to get them on your side, seems not so optimal a strategy.

P.S somebody also actually needs to organize these protest activities (or even civil warfare in that hypothetical), which is hardly saying nothing. Who is supposed to be doing that?