This. There wouldn’t be a “war”, just the one sided annihilation of the resistance.
I agree with the general tenor of the responses that say “war no, unrest yes.”
Civil war requires two sides with, if not actual parity, then enough strength on both sides to make armed conflict plausible. In the US, one side will have personal firearms and improvised explosives while the other side will have tanks and warplanes. That won’t be a war. What it will be like instead is an occupation.
There’s a good line in the first Captain America movie where the Stanley Tucci character says something about how before the Nazis attacked the rest of Europe, they invaded their own country first. That’s what’s happening now, and that, I think, is how we should understand what comes next.
In this scenario, in eighteen months or so, the US will resemble Iraq after the fall of Saddam, or some other similar historical equivalent where a militarily superior occupying force is trying to keep a lid on a restive civilian population. The unhappiness and disorder will be regionally specific (blue states and cities), and you won’t have just official uniformed troops patrolling the streets, there will be a lot of red-state irregulars coming into the trouble spots, “volunteering” to help root out the “disloyal” and suppress dissent.
It will be asymmetrical, ugly, and likely prolonged.
Why do we not see this in Hungary under Orban? Why did we not see it under Law and Justice Party rule in Poland (2015 - 2023)? Why do we not see it in Turkey today?
There was a civil war in Turkey until recently, but it predated autocratic rule. Civil war is far more likely to be due to ethnic conflict than dictatorship.
Lots of people do greatly dislike living under autocracy. But I do not see why that is expected to lead to widespread civil unrest or war. It rarely does.
I very much doubt that we will see unrest on the level of the 1970s, when there were about 2,500 domestic political bombings:
However, Trump may cleverly convince Americans there is unprecedented unrest in order to justify draconian security policies. He wins with fear. Don’t fall for it. Unrest will be a blip compared to our normal murder rate.
Because the US version is going to be about systematically persecuting (or worse) over half the population. Women + non-whites + non-Christians + non-Rightists = the majority of the population. And hurting people is what the American Right is all about. None of the examples you used even approach what the American Right wants to do. Nazi Germany didn’t, for that matter.
It may be starting. Resistance is alive and well in the United States | Waging Nonviolence The authors report that protests are growing rapidly, though not much covered in the media. You may be thinking of something more violent when you use the term civil unrest.
Meanwhile, the official stupid continues to grow US blocks Canadian access to cross-border library, sparking outcry | US news | The Guardian
A library built in the early 1900s to straddle the Vermont/Quebec border is now policed.
At the worst? The Troubles, American style.
At best, a continuation of the mass protests, petty vandalism, and isolated acts of violence we’ve been seeing since November.
My guess is that we’ll land somewhere in the middle.
I think the one that started 164 years ago is still going on.
Because Orbán and Erdoğan spent 20 years slowly and carefully constructing a governing model which Trump is trying to force in 20 weeks? I mean, it’s not like the differences in the situations aren’t staggeringly obvious.
I did read somewhere that he is going faster than they did. I’m not so sure this will impact the chances of violence, but I see evidence in this thread that Trump’s recklessness is increasing non-violent protests.
As of now, I am thinking that:
– The level of violence will be low.
– Trump will use the level of violence, however low, as a reason for a crackdown on his opponents.
– There is risk of a Tiananmen Square type massacre.
I’m constitutionally skeptical of the value of protests messaging great certainty that the protesters are correct and their opponents are wrong. And if Trump really is a classic fascist, protests, however admirable and brave, are useless.
Any violence will be used by Trump for his benefit. If there is no violence, he may falsely claim there was, but he will be less credible if he has to resort to that lie.
I am still unsure what term to use for her. I was referring to her as “my beloved”. But apparently people disliked that. One of my pet names for her is Gobhi. So, I’m using that now.
At this point, I have very little confidence that free, meaningful and democratic ekections will take place. I am not sure how they will be prevented or to what extent. But, I am not seeing votes meaning anything at this point.
The cost of eggs is directly related to the bird virus. Not Republicans.
Supply chain issues because folks are hoarding. Gouging prices, cause they can.
It all creates this.
You are making an argument I can agree with here. So tell me how you think these scenarios would work out:
- I’ve posted this before but - protests happen in multiple cites, mostly Blue but some Red ones too. The protests turn violent much like the BLM protests or even more so. DJT would not hesitate to invoke the Insurrection Act and declare martial law. The military is sent in to put down protests, mostly in Blue cities and states. How do you imagine Governors will react to that? What if these Govs call out National Guard troops in their states to confront Fed troops? How do you imagine this turning out? Because to me, that could be a match to a powder keg of really intense anger.
- The 2028 midterm elections happen and it appears the GOP loses control of at least one chamber of Congress. The House of course is most likely. Given the behavior DJT, Musk and minions have engaged in since 1/20/25, do you REALLY think they will give up total control of the Congress? Losing the House would likely kneecap all of their plans. I don’t know how they will do it but I’m convinced they will not allow enough Red seats to switch Blue and cost them the House.
In that situation do you really have trouble seeing violence breaking out? By '28 the outrage is likely to be at a boiling point.
I saw an article today where conservative commentator Bret Stephens said if DJT starts to ignore Federal court rulings, he would feel compelled to be at the barricades.
Barricades? To me that is civil unrest language. From a pretty hardcore Conservative.
When haven’t these people been persecuted? In any real sense?
It will be a matter of degrees.
If there is widespread people disappearing, or large camps(remember this is half the population) built and filled with innocents maybe the right leaning persons, who have some good sense, will stand against the leaders.
The left can do nothing. They can fight, go on a spree but it will end badly and quickly for them.
If you live in a red state and are surrounded by it you are doubly disabled from fighting.
If you live in a blue state you will be subject to worse treatment, systemically.
Yeah, we’ve always been persecuted as women, differing colors, disabilities, religious differences, imigration status,
economic level.
It’s not new.
However eggless plebs need to justify their situation is fine with me.
I’ll now be off, I’ve got to finish preparing my double egg crepe batter for tomorrow. I think I’ll drown half of those in maple syrup and other half I’ll stuff with savory omelettes.
Not on the scale that’s coming, not since the Civil War. You need to go back to the genocide of the Native Americans to get to that level.
My walmart has a dozen for $4.74.
I also have hens. I won’t be doing without eggs.
I take offense at being called a “pleb” very insulting.
Also, I’m not your enemy.
(I may make Angelfood cake, I can actually have some of that)
No. Talks of civil war and secession aren’t anything that should be taken seriously at all. I don’t know a single person who wants to die over politics. Now will there be random and some ‘spontaneous’ protests and violence? Of course. But door to door street fighting and anarchy is tough to stomach when life is so good.
That assumes that life remains relatively “good”. I can easily foresee a turn of events where some misstep on Trump’s part completely devastates the economy and we fall into a Second Great Depression with mass unemployment, general poverty, and widespread civil unrest. The last time that happened we nearly avoided a fascist coup, and if it happens while we’ve already got fascists running the country, then all bets are off.
Problem with current events compared to historical events is we disproportionately view with importance what is happening in the now. We honestly aren’t really seeing that profound of an event. Daily news that is designed to stimulate intense emotion in order to grab attention and engagement makes the magnitude of the problems we have greater than they actually are. Now in 30-40 years when truly transformative events are going to take place I don’t have any predictions.
I think another magnifying effect to people’s perceptions is that politically it’s very chaotic as we are having a party realignment.
I do agree that we’re probably experiencing the troubled birth of the Seventh Party System. “And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?”