Even if he has the sociology wrong, the prediction is right: this isn’t about Trump and it isn’t about Clinton. This is the new normal. There is no personality who we can put into office who is going to take us back to a time, even as late is the W Presidency, when the parties worked together on major policy issues.
Instead, we are on the cusp of a new dark ages of American politics at the federal level. It’s time to get used to court rulings, foreign policy, and executive orders as the primary forms of policy from the federal government, and a whole lot more of states and compacts among states setting their own agendas and taking the lead on issues like climate change.
This is exactly what I’ve been thinking, and it’s absolutely correct that this is not about Trump. He’s dangerous but mostly for his lack of stability and utter incompetence and unfitness for the position. However, there are people lurking in the shadows who are extremely dangerous.
Hyper-partisanship is worming its way into our public institutions. The obvious political infighting within the FBI is nothing short of terrifying, and I have no doubt that the exact same phenomenon is happening within the military. One of the great attributes of our democracy in modern times is that our agencies and civil servants have been mostly apolitical. But partisanship is eroding these institutions. And yes, we’re returning to an age of “States Rights”…and we know what that means.
That is why we need to go back to institutionalized corruption like earmarks that grease the wheels of politics. This what you get when there is no reason to make deals; there is nothing in it for the party making concessions. Today’s politics is all stick and no carrot; the beatings will continue until morale improves. We have gone overboard in cleaning up government, and now we are reaping the unintended consequences. Let’s go back to the good old days when we turned a blind eye to the sausage-making, just to get something done.
Yeah. Maybe we do need more patronage and more pork so that people like Obama can function more like LBJ.
But I don’t think LBJ would have been LBJ in today’s hyper-partisan world. And I don’t think the death of pork is why it is so partisan (even though Chait suggests as much). I think the bigger factors are the fragmentation of the media and American social life generally, increasing mobility and sorting, and the collapse of the GOP as described in Chait’s account. None of that gets solved with greasier wheels.
There’s no question that the fragmentation of media and the ability for people to live in information bubbles is a major factor.
Another factor is the failure of neo-liberalism or modern global capitalism. Going back to Reagan, I can see how some of his agenda of tax cutting and deregulation made sense back in 1980, but to do so on the backs of taxpayers began a legacy of fiscal irresponsibility that continues to this day. That was extended during the Bush years, a period in which we fought two wars without paying for them – hell we gave money back to the people who needed it the least. All of this culminated in the great failure of modern global capitalism in 2008. The Financial Crisis of 2008 and the Iraq War are important because together they discredited those who supported the political status quo. It would have been nice to have had leaders in industry, on Wall Street, who could have had the foresight to promote not only their own interests and those of shareholders but to understand the broader interests they serve. What we’re left with is the collapse of the system that enriched them and employed us. This isn’t just happening here but globally.
Back on topic, what I see is that Republican extremists have known for some time that their ideas are not shared by the general public at large - the article actually mentions this. The Republicans’ ideas aren’t any more popular in 2016 than they were in 2012 and 2008. Moreover, they have a demographics problem. This might be their last chance to impose their will over the rest of us. We’re seeing that right now in a very real sense with things like voter purges at the state level. I suspect you will see “immigration reform” quickly make the transition to “immigration control” - as in the Immigration Control Act of 2016, 2018 – the kind of legislation that basically locks out immigrants altogether. But the real dirty work is going to be done at the top, with the selection of ideological Supreme Court justices who will make Scalia look like a moderate. Trump, meanwhile, will put constant pressure on federal agencies by doing things that blatantly violate ethics and the law. But as we’ve seen, Trump apparently has his warriors already within the department and I have no doubt that they exist in other agencies as well. Suppose Trump creates a crisis in which FBI agents and military personnel walk – what’s keeping him from promoting hardened partisan loyalists? Nothing at all. Trump himself isn’t as dangerous as the ideas he’s putting out there into the mainstream of consciousness. Trump has said “I don’t give a fuck about the Constitution” – and he has tens of millions of voters and perhaps tens or even hundreds of thousands in government who are absolutely okay with that.
The activity on the right of the spectrum is absurd and desperate. When you see desperation in the enemy that’s a positive thing. When you see the enemy demographically wasting away, that’s good. You got to give some time to all these processes. Can you imagine if we had had the election 6 months ago? We needed time to metabolize Donald. The media didn’t know what the hell to do with him, and still don’t. He’ll get votes, of course, but 6 months ago he would have had a good chance of winning. Why is he losing now? That’s positive. It’s democracy working.
On what basis will we get states rights back? You realize that only white cons want this? Was Chait really saying this is the new normal, or was that just your thing?
If we were going down the road to fascism or dictatorship then why is the conservative party falling apart?
It can be good. It can also be the crumbling of the underpinnings of society that will result in a general collapse.
And if “white cons” control the military, one will hope that they do not get sufficiently irritated to act on their anger.
The political party is being shaken due to conflicting beliefs, but the various factions within the party are becoming more entrenched in the beliefs that each hold with one group being holding a growing belief that they are being treated unfairly. I hope that leaders of both parties begin to step away from partisanship, but if they do not the disaffected may seek less democratic methods to address their perceived grievances.
Don’t you think that we need to give this election season a little time before we start talking about a “general collapse” of the “underpinnings of society”?
I’m not sure what’s going to happen on the right. Beliefs are going to run up against reality too. But you’re first thought is that people “Blow stuff up” when that happens? There are two factions in the schism on the right. One is chasing an old white dream, but what is the other one doing? I’m not sure what they are “digging into”. If they’re out of touch they will not be elected.
I am not a military camp follower but I just think you’re not giving them a lot of credit here. I don’t believe at all that they could just become their demographic median and abandon their oath.
I think we have to realistically look at how many Trump voters there are, after the election, and not decide now that there is a whole army of them bringing us down.
I tend to look at this season as the moment when a lot of lights went on and a lot of bugs started running around. We haven’t had lights on in a long time. We need to let some things play out. For instance: Lets see how many of Bernies planks Hillary will remember when she’s elected. I’m just not one to be saying “It’s always the same, and it never changes and none of them are any good and let’s go eat worms”
Also playing out: Fox news is taking some big hits and is really weird and confused now. I’m optimistic about that.
Yes, that region disproportionately to the military. But before fretting about a Neo-Confederate military. I’d look at the demographics of those recruits. I doubt they are all white. And they aren’t all male.
We don’t actually have to do anything of the sort. What is the practical consequence of the last six years? None that I can see other than Democrats not getting what they want out of DC. Which is not actually a crisis or even a problem. And if it is, the voters can correct that problem anytime they want. Democrats act as if Republicans controlling Congress was some sort of unforseeable thing that they had nothing to do with. Democrats LOST Congress for real reasons, and will get it back for real reasons. As in, when they’ve convinced people that Democratic policies should be implemented.
Moreover, I think Southern identity is somewhat diluted now. There’s now confederacy that’s trying to preserve a culture of white supremacy that is exclusively found in certain states. The growing divide is ideological and more geographically widespread. You find Trumpists in South Carolina, and you find them in Bakersfield, California.
The racial and gender makeup of the military is irrelevant. It’s an overwhelmingly Republican institution, and I’d bet that the 5% of African-Americans who routinely vote Republican are vets.
Sure. I have no strong feelings that society, or even the Republican Party, is on the verge of collapse. That is why I began with “It can be good.” I simply noted that there were alternative views to the notion that everything was going to be sweetness and light because one’s perceived enemies were in disarray.
It will be wonderful if the Trumpists or the Tea party become the 21st century Whigs. However, that is not the only possible outcome and I am reluctant to presume that that is a foregone conclusion.
During the Great Depression, we had similar factions on both the Left and the Right looking to change the direction of the country. World War II brought those efforts to a close as we united to fight a common enemy. The reverse has happened in this century, with one group using an external enemy to get us involved in what has become an unpopular set of wars while simultaneously setting the stage to bring on the Great Recession. I am not sure what major event that we currently face will unite us in the manner of the attack on Pearl Harbor.
Again, I am making no predictions that we are doomed, but I do not believe that gloating over the failure of the Trumpists will necessarily prove to be a successful approach.
As to the military, for 33 years, as the U.S. emerged as a world power, we had a citizen’s army, in which a significant number of is members were simply civilians, rotated through based on the draft. That is no longer the case and there is lots of historical precedent for a professional army getting fed up with the way that “corrupt” governments are being run and stepping in to “set things right.” That the Army and Air Force have each had several instances in recent years of members of the Religious Right trying to shape their troops in particular religious and political directions is not a comforting thought.
I do NOT think that we are on the verge of a coup and I do not believe that today’s military, generally, would support such an anti-democratic movement. However, looking to the future, I believe that thinking people should consider the possibility and look for ways to ensure that it does not occur.