Things really started to unravel within the Republican collation when the cold war ended, but now they have completely fallen apart.
On the issues front, McCain tried to preform magic by appealing to both social conservatives and independents. He went too far to the right, the illusion disappeared, and independents are now supporting Obama. The party now only enjoys support from Republicans, which since the days of Regan has been a loosely held coalition of political factions (i.e. Neo-cons, libertarians and paleo-cons.)
In addition to this, there now appears to be a cultural split. Georgetown Republicans (that’s what people call George Will and Willaim F. Buckely types) want McCain to deliver a positive message on the economy and stop smearing Obama. Jizz Monkeys (the technical term for the Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh types) want McCain to step up the associations with Ayers and Rezko.
These two groups have tolerated each other before, but now McCain has gone too far with his appeal to the ignorant wing of the party. The Georgetown folks seem to be struggling to hold back their complete contempt for John McCain. The only thing stopping them from denouncing him outright is that it would be bad for the party as a whole.
If McCain keeps up his appeal to the Jizz Monkeys, he just might give Obama some Republican votes. Since the Wall Street crisis, Obama has won the support of white blue collar Democrats (the last Democratic demographic that wasn’t fully supporting Obama), and independents. He now has a chance to whittle away at McCain’s Republican base. A good politician might seize this moment by somehow appealing to Georgetown Republicans without compromising his platform. Or maybe Obama should just somehow fuel the contempt Georgetown folks have with the rest of their party. Is it possible for Obama to pull this off? Will he even attempt it?
The question is whether you think Republicans will turnout for Obama, or will they simply just stay home in disgust?