Clearly, McCain is going to lose these elections. Why, he’s 15 points behind, running as the oldest ever president against one of the youngest, most popular candidates in decades. Not only that but he follows in the party footsteps of one of the most unpopular incumbents of all time.
Quite frankly, the only people benefiting from this excruciatingly long political season are greedy owners of the media who sell billions in advertising and a small cabal of political satirists turned profiteers (Stewart, Colbert, The Onion, etc.) whereas the rest of us see our access to vital information on World news curtailed in favor of such travesties as debates on flag pins, first lady cookies and pundits rehashing unreliable opinions and discussing unreliable polls.
As things drag on, Obama is seeing himself having to pander to more and more controversial groups and alienating more and more people who feel betrayed after allowing themselves to hope, not to mention the inevitable gaffes which offend and hurt the more politically sensitive parts of the American electorate. How is the nation to become united and hopeful if everybody is let down by the time the elections are over?
Instead of wasting billions of dollars in political contribution money running manipulative TV ads, printing propaganda and harassing people at home with bossy phone calls, we should spend that money to build orphanages for the children and hospices for our less wealthy seniors. By not dropping out of this race, John McCain is sending a strong signal that he hates the children and the elderly, even though he is one himself.
Mondale won only one state in 1984, and McGovern won only one state in 1972. Yet they ran anyway, and they would have been crucified had they thrown in the towel even if their losing was a foregone conclusion.
We have parties for a reason. I don’t want one of them failing to run, no matter which one of them it is.
Obama ain’t no Kerry. Sometimes a lead is actually a lead. The circumstances this time clearly favor the Democrat. Not that I think McCain should drop out. Obviously that would be silly (plus I think any other Republican would get beat even worse than McCain), but I don’t think you need a weatherman to know which the wind is blowing.
Does it really compare or matter how Kerry was doing in 2004? Obama is the antithesis of Kerry. Though I do not agree with the OP, as McCain has every right to run and continue to run - I think Obama and he are quite different. I have a prescribed opinion of how I believe November will go down, and I don’t think comparing Kerry to Obama for this debate gives a good window on what is happening now in 2008. Too many variables carrying over from the primaries and historical keynote of this particular election to compare the two.
That poll might be a bit of an outlier as well. Most other polls show Obama with a slight lead - around 5%.
The astonishing thing is that Obama isn’t doing better. He’s had tremendous media coverage for several months now while McCain hasn’t, and he’s spending money on advertising like mad. And he still can’t pull away from McCain. There must be some weakness there. Perhaps like this:
A CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll from 6/21-6/23 had Bush 49%, Kerry 48%.
A Fox News poll from 6/22-6/23 had Bush 48%. Kerry 42%
A CBS/New York Times poll from 6/23-6/27 had Bush 44%, Kerry 45%
I can’t find anything for June 2004 specifically, but as of August Kerry was substantially ahead (cite). Not a fifteen point lead, I grant you, that fifteen point lead is pretty new - cite.
Absurd. Makes no sense. I think he’ll lose, probably big, but it’s early and anything can happen in terms of news that shapes the election cycle, things McCain does right or Obama does wrong. He’s been running since early 2007, and the idea that he should quit now, four months before the election, is ridiculous.
How clear is it? Care to make a bet? If it’s so clear that he should drop out -which would be a terrible betrayal of his party and his supporters, and would make him one of the most cowardly weasels in American history - then you won’t mind giving me, say, a spread, or odds? A ten-point spread in popular vote? Fifteen to one odds? Either way I’ll put down good money.
You guys are whistling past the graveyard, my friends. The Newsweek poll was an outlier, but the daily tracking polls have had Obama consistently floating around between a 5-8 point lead. The electoral map tells the real story, though. It’s going to be an old fashioned.
Thank you for figuring it out. I was contemplating having to post again and rant at my fellow dopers for making me sound insane with their gentle rebuttals. Alessan got it right.
I should also mention that one of my professors used to say that he loves it when students start an answer with “clearly” because he can just disregard their entire argument
I know the OP was a parody, but this is what I wonder: If the democrats manage to lose this election, can they still be considered a serious political party? If they can’t elect a president under these circumstances, maybe it would be best to pack it up.
Why do they have Florida tied, when according to their own graph, McCain has Florida by about six points? Furthermore, they put Ohio in the Democratic category, even though their polling graph puts McCain in the lead. What am I missing there? I also noticed that in a lot of the “barely Democratic” states, Obama is trending downward, as he has been in most national polls - what’s really interesting is where they’re both trending downward (see Colorado, for example), Obama is losing two to three times as many points as McCain to the “undecided” category. McCain has closed the gap considerably in every state. And that’s with all the press going to Obama recently.
So, again, eggs, chickens, hatched.
(FTR, even though I’m a McCain guy, I still think it’s Obama’s to lose…I just think that the likelihood of that happening is growing daily.)