I think the rule of thumb is that it takes about 6 months for good economic news to manifest iteslf in increased public optimism. That should start kicking in soon. The more the economy stays the same, ie pretty darned good job creation, the less Kerry can talk about job loss under Bush. The US economy is really in good shape right now. It will be hard for the Dems to mount a rallying cry come Sept/Oct.
I’d tend to agree, but the big swing factor is what happens after June 30th. I have a feeling the Iraqis will clamp down on the insurgents a lot harder than the US has. A lot harder.
Still, though, I think the situation in Iraq is much more likely than the state of the US economy to sink Bush. There are so many uncontrollable variables in Iraq right now.
The President has a long way to go before he can come close to the job creation that the prior administration enjoyed. Back in those days, republicans were quick to point out that the PotUS didn’t have anything to do with job creation or the economy, true or not. Senator Kerry would be wise to make that counterpoint if the President pushes the issue.
Between the Reagan feuneral and Clinton’s book, the best thing for Kerry to do is hunker down and wait until the news novelty wears off. I suspect he won’t make a big campaign push until around July or August, myself.
Due to the fact that I would like to be alive come the end of 2008, I will be voting Kerry. That is all. Bush scares the hell out of me.
I would vote for Nader if he had the chance of beating Bush that Kerry does, but when the election is this close, I’m not voting for someone with no chance of winning.
The last labor statistics I saw were a net job loss of 1.5 million jobs under the Bush Administration (down slightly from a high of around 2.5 million, IIRC). Sure 1.5 million is less than 2.5 million, but that’s still a helluva lot of jobs. I don’t think Bush has a prayer of downplaying that statistic.
Bush is also going to have to make at least a token attempt to reach beyond the narrow ideological base of support he’s been running his administration with. This was probably the reason for his recent cordial meeting with the Clintons. But I think overall, he’s going to have a hard time convincing voters he’s been listening to moderate, let alone liberal, points of view during his term.
Which Bush could counter with “But if you look at recent trends, job creation is quite robust, especially when one considers the devastating economical impact of September 11th and the fact that I inherited an economy on the downturn of it’s cycle from the previous administration.”
Or, to put it another way:
Those that want to see the positives for Bush will see them.
Those that want to see the positives for Kerry will see them.
Some of the undecideds will finally see a votable positive and jump to a side.
The rest will continue to wander around like slack jawed yokels until they are in the voting booth.
And Kerry can respond, “As soon as you got elected the job rate started going down and as soon as it looked like you weren’t going to get a second term, it started going back up.”
For every attack a counter-attack.
Can anyone remember when we used to vote for the candidate we liked the best instead of the one we dislike the least?