In this latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, it appears that, from a historical perspective, President Bush has his work cut out for him.
What will Bush have to do to swing independents and women into his camp? Are his falling numbers a product of “unusual” voter interest, or his less than stellar popularity? If Kerry can manage to stay out of trouble, is this election going to be a slam dunk?
Is it really such a smart thing for the GOP to continue with its voter registration activity? I don’t see how they can get that many more republicans to vote. OTOH I don’t personally know any democrats that don’t plan on voting, while in 2000 many stayed home.
Do you guys think that even the capture of ObL or a major attack against the US can turn things around for GW?
[ol]
[li]Keep the economy on its steadily-improving track[/li][li]Make noticeable improvements in Iraq, especially in terms of self-governance and a pullout of US forces.[/li][/ol]
Both could be met by November. OBL would be a big boost. It’s hard to predict what effect a terrorist attack would have. Some would see it has a sign that Bush hasn’t been effective, some would see it has a sign that we need to be more hawkish (which people won’t perceive Kerry has being likely to do), and a relatively bipartisan group would probably be hesitant to change leaders during a new crisis.
Pronouncing Bush the loser now is very premature, I think.
As much as I’d like to cheer and dance and sing songs about how the skies can be blue again, it’s not like his support among likely voters is 19% below Kerry’s, so I’m still holding my breath and scraping bottom of wallet for more money to send.
[side-hijack] Kerry can’t spend the money he raises after the Demo convention, as you may have heard; he’ll be limited to the Federal funds from then until the election. But donations to PACs that support his candidacy are under no such restrictions. Likewise, voter reg drives in swing states are a good place to relocate any extra cash you need to dispose of [/hijack]
I really don’t understand the extent to which Bush still has support. It’s like running a poll, “Would you rather have a backrub from a masseuse you haven’t tried yet, or get a poke in the eye with a sharpened stick?”, and then finding that approximately half of the respondents reply “I’ll go with the sharp stick, John”.
I still think he’ll lose but I’ve always thought it’ll be tight. This looks to be an election of inches and I’m not seeing anything to dissuade me of that.
FAR too early to predict an electoral landslide. Ask again in August or September. If things stay as they are (Iraq still boiling, questions about Rumsfeld and torture, economy not inflating fast enough) it’ll be difficult for things to get better for GWB. But if one or two of those either go away or hit an upswing then his fortunes could improve quickly.
I’m not going to even try to predict how the polls are going to move between now and November, but if you want evidence that the election is not a slam dunk right now then take a look at this site.
The operator of that site currently puts Kerry in the lead, but a huge proportion of that lead is based on heavily contested states. Switch Florida from blue to red on that map and Kerry’s lead shrinks immensely; add in, say, West Virginia or Nevada and Bush moves into the lead. Jonathan’s called it, I think: it’s going to be another squeaker.
My math is off today; that wouldn’t quite be enough to put Bush in the lead. Replace “West Virginia or Nevada” with “Washington” or “Indiana and New Hampshire”. Sorry 'bout that.
You do understand that an approval rating for one person isn’t the same as approval for one candidate over another? The liberal democrats who I work with, whose very job is to separate “wishful thinking” from the " perhaps sad but true," are still betting on Bush.
Bush has his work cut out for him. The Iraq debacle certainly has to spontaneously heal itself. With the new regime’s leaders serving as little more than target practice, it’s really hard to see a positive end to this. Capturing binLaden would help tremendously. A major terrorist attack on election day would probably help, though it would be a wild card. Bush did get a bounce from the Reagan funeral, and Ford is 90 years old…
It’s impossible to see how Kerry’s VP choice could help Bush. Except for Hillary Clinton, ANYBODY that Kerry picks would have twice the appeal of Dick Cheney.
The one thing that I would be most worried about if I was Bush is the potential turnout. Large turnouts are bad news for Republicans, this election at the moment has enormous interest. Between the increasing gender gap, the defection of the non-neocon Republicans, the possible huge turnout, and the prospects for Iraq becoming what Afghanistan was to the Soviets, Mr. Bush has plenty of reason to worry.
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again…it all hinges on the PERCEPTION of the economy. If the economy is perceived to be doing well, improving, etc in, say, Sept. or Oct. then Bush will most likely be re-elected. If not, then Kerry will most likely be elected.
Either way I think its going to be VERY close. I’m sort of in a damned if you do damned if you don’t situation here…I really would prefer that NEITHER candidate wins to be honest. I’m unsure which is the lesser of two evils…
I guess I’ll have to just plod along and hope that the election in '08 has a candidate I can vote for.
To answer the question of the title: No, it’s not at all too late for Bush. In fact, the race is pretty much a dead heat right now. The economy is likely to get better or at least stay the same, and that’s a huge plus come November. The Iraq situation is a crap shoot. Same with ObL. Any positive, significant development in those areas is a huge plus for Bush.
The closer the election looks, the easier it will be. You may be suffering from “all my friends are Democrats” syndrome.
I think it’s pretty clear from the numbers that there are more people who identify as ‘Democrats’ (regardless of their personal leanings) than those who identify ‘Republican’. The biggest difference is that the ‘democrats’ have a higher ‘feckless non-voter’ percentage.
So it’s possible for ‘all my friends are democrats’ to be perfectly true…but not have it mean much in terms of the election.
Judging from the number of bullheaded morons I encounter on a daily basis who want to tell me that Bush is a great American, and how the United States would likely just have, oh, I dunno, exploded or burned down or wandered away in sheer Democrat-ridden apathy if Gore had been President on 9/11…
I think Iraq is going to continue to be Bush’s albatross. If he maintains the present course or escalates American involvement, it can be perceived as a “quagmire”. But if he reduces American involvement, it could be perceived as an admission that the whole invasion was a mistake. Bush’s only hope in the region is a genuine and undeniable improvement in Iraq’s internal situation. Unfortunately, given the nation’s history this is unlikely to happen in the next few months.
As the election grows closer, Bush will increasingly be stuck with the problem of trying to appear like a statesman not a politician. Even if he does something undeniably right, it may be perceived as a cynical gesture timed for the election. For example, I’ve already heard several people saying that they’d be suspicious if Osama bin Laden were suddenly captured.
I think there’ll also be a backlash against the cynical tactic that some people are using of trying to equate President Bush with America and saying that failing to support him is “unpatriotic”.
I’d better there’s a Republican or two to be had from the group of 4M potential voters, especially since we didn’t have an issue like gay marriage in 2000.
If the economy stays the same, I don’t see that as a plus. It hasn’t seemed to help the President yet. If it gets a little better and interest rates rise, I don’t see that as a plus either. Most of the pundits I’ve listened to doubt that the situation in Iraq is going to improve, rather deteriorate as 6/30 approaches and subsequent to the 1/05 elections. I rather doubt that there will be any significant decrease in occupying forces during that time frame. I’ll take any bet at 2:1 odds that conditions in Iraq will at best stay the same.
There is an approximately a 40/40 split between dems and GOP here with the other 20 independent. Most of my republican friends voted in 2000, and probably half of my fellow democrats. They’re all voting this round. I think turnout alone will kill Bush in Florida, unless he can come up with a way to scare 'em off.
There is a strong ‘anyone but Bush’ sentiment in the country which doesn’t automatically mean votes for Kerry. Kerry has been fairly quiet / overshadowed these last few weeks. It’s up to him to hang on when the media spotlight swings back on him, and not do something stupic or get tripped up by the Republican tricks yet to come. I’m hoping Bush is going down, but I’m not ready to call Kerry just yet.
