I believe we can do a bit better than that, but exits in the round of 16 are not out of the realm of possibility, though exits in semifinals are not impossible either, I’d guess we’ll go out in the round of 8 more often than not, but Scaloni and the Scaloneta may yet surprise us, for good (I hope) or ill.
really difficult to say. National teams are notoriously fickle in World Cups. Italy won the WC in 2006, then went out meekly in the group stage in 2010 and 2014, and hasn’t been back since. France won it in 1998, then went out in the group stage in 2002 in disgrace. Spain won it in 2010, won the Euros in 2012, came into the 2014 WC as the favorite, then went out meekly in the group stage.
I think Messi is the clear GOAT, but I also don’t think his retirement is going to hurt Argentina much. He scored a lot of goals in the most recent WC, but did basically nothing outside that. Now, I know that’s been a criticism of Messi at least since like ~2020, but if you rewatch some 2022 games vs 2026 games it’s night and day. 2026 Messi gets stripped in 1s by Gvardiol during that famous assist.
Similarly Portugal is going to be better once the other one finally retires or is forced out.