Is North Korea ready to commit "State Suicide" ?

[Dissonance]

@Broomstick

I’m not talking about China invading North Korea. Do you fail to see where I keep saying it’s up to the Koreans? What if, entirely hypothetically, the majority in the North decided they’d rather be connected to China that the south? Are you seriously saying that if the North Koreans made that choice China would say no?

I’m perfectly aware of what you are saying. Where have you seen me saying you are talking about a Chinese invasion of North Korea? You are the one who brought up the invasion of Tibet to try to prop up your position, I wasn’t the one bringing invasions into the question, you did. And to answer your final question, yes, I am saying that China would say no. They are saying no right now. They deport every North Korean they catch who has snuck across the border right back into North Korea. They have shown no desire to make North Korea’s problems their own. You have also yet to present the tiniest shred of evidence to support your bizarre hypothetical that North Koreans have any desire to become a part of China.

Actually, the US did annex a fair portion of Mexico - that’s where the US got California, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico. You’re right, Mexico wasn’t happy, but since the US had marched all the way to Mexico City it could have been a lot worse. On the other hand, why some ethnic Mexicans in those states might want to be part of Mexico again there is no big push for it, everyone seems to have learned to live with it.

/golfclap. Yes, the US annexed parts of Mexico. In a war. I thought you were the one just asking where you were calling for a Chinese invasion of North Korea. The point is nobody is calling for the annexation of Mexico to solve the problem of illegal immigration from Mexico. You seem to think China would want to do just this with North Korea, and that annexing North Korea would be a solution to the problem of illegal immigration from North Korea rather than what it would be: China making all of North Korea’s problems its own problems. If you want to work Tibet into this again somehow, the US considered it Manifest Destiny to stretch from coast to coast, and the fact that some of it happened to be Mexican was immaterial. That didn’t mean that it wanted to annex the entirety of Mexico or ever considered all of Mexico to be a part of the US. China has at times had Tibet as part of its nation and considers Tibet to be a part of China, and the fact that Tibetans don’t consider themselves to be a part of China is irrelevant from their own Manifest Destiny point of view. They have never, however, thought the same about Korea or considered Korea to be a part of China.

They’re already the main prop that keeps that nation from collapsing. There are already people wanting to emigrate to China.

As I’m sure you are perfectly aware, North Korea is still a failing economy in spite of support from China, and China would have to start pouring massively more amounts of treasure into North Korea if they were to annex North Korea and make all of North Korea’s problems its own. And again as I’m sure you are perfectly aware, China is deporting all of those North Koreas who want to immigrate (in order to escape starvation level poverty, mind you, not out of any desire to be Chinese) and manage to sneak across the border back into North Korea as quickly as they can catch them.

Again, you’re assuming that it would be China driving this. Again, consider if the North Koreans got to vote on their fate and remarkably made that decision.

You’ve got this completely wrong. I’m not assuming China would be driving this. I’m assuming China would be running from the idea as quickly as they could, because that is what they are doing right now. They have shown zero desire to accept refugees from North Korea, much less take over North Korea. Why would you imagine any North Korean desires for annexation to be of any value if tomorrow in bizarro-world this came to pass? China still doesn’t want them. If Mexico held a vote tomorrow expressing its desire to be annexed by the US, does it follow that the US is obliged to annex Mexico? Or to take an example where the amount of political freedom and the ecomony are closer to as bad as they are in North Korea (honestly -if North Korean’s got to vote tomorrow?), if Somalia voted to become a part of the US tomorrow, does it follow that Somalia is now a part of the US and that the existing US has no say in the matter?

Right - the people of North Korea eat ONLY Korean food, read ONLY Korean - more specifically, only North Korean - writings, etc. They have no exposure to anything else (well, some is starting to seep in, but not much). The South, on the other hand, happily consumes global mass culture.

Uh-huh. All of Korean culture was obliterated in 1950? North Koreas only eat traditional North Korean food dishes invented in 1950? No great writings by Korean authors who lived before 1950 exist anymore in North Korea? People in the North and South don’t have relatives on the other side of the DMZ? Aside from it being absurd to think this true, what is your evidence that North Korea is culturally closer to anyone other than South Korea, and in particular why you think it is culturally closer to China than to the South?

I also must say it is amusing to see you to question Monty’s credentials for his opinions on Korea.

[Magiver]

@Broomstick

I’m not talking about China invading North Korea. Do you fail to see where I keep saying it’s up to the Koreans? What if, entirely hypothetically, the majority in the North decided they’d rather be connected to China that the south? Are you seriously saying that if the North Koreans made that choice China would say no?.

The North Korean majority have no basis from which to make any kind of decision other than their current lives suck. The younger generation is aware at some level what life is like in South Korea.

This isn’t about what the population of NK thinks. It’s about what 1 man thinks.

[Broomstick]

@Monty

Broomstick: Having lived in South Korea for approximately a total of nine years, I think I’m fairly conversant on the issue.

Well, sir, your location field lists a place in China, and I don’t follow every one of your posts so I had no way of knowing that you had resided there for nine years. I will henceforth weight your posts appropriately given your direct experience.

[sweat209]

Has any war scenario been done on how long war will be and death toll.

scenario one no nukes use and scenario two nuke used.

[Broomstick]

@Dissonance

They have shown no desire to make North Korea’s problems their own.

Then they might want to reconsider their present agreements with North Korea as China is more directly involved with them than anyone else.

You have also yet to present the tiniest shred of evidence to support your bizarre hypothetical that North Koreans have any desire to become a part of China.

I don’t think they desire to become part of any other nation. I do think that should Pyongyang fall they won’t be given a choice. Either China, the US, or someone else will become their keepers.

You seem to think China would want to do just this with North Korea, and that annexing North Korea would be a solution to the problem of illegal immigration from North Korea rather than what it would be: China making all of North Korea’s problems its own problems.

North Korea is already a problem for China. If Pyongyang falls then there will be a refugee problem. Either way, China will have to deal with the situation.

If you want to work Tibet into this again somehow, the US considered it Manifest Destiny to stretch from coast to coast, and the fact that some of it happened to be Mexican was immaterial. That didn’t mean that it wanted to annex the entirety of Mexico or ever considered all of Mexico to be a part of the US. China has at times had Tibet as part of its nation and considers Tibet to be a part of China, and the fact that Tibetans don’t consider themselves to be a part of China is irrelevant from their own Manifest Destiny point of view. They have never, however, thought the same about Korea or considered Korea to be a part of China.

So… by that argument, because Spain was at one time ruled by Muslims you feel that Muslims have some sort of legitimate claim to Spain? You’d be OK if a coalition of Arab States attempted to take over Spain? Or are ancient borders relevant only in Asia?

As I’m sure you are perfectly aware, North Korea is still a failing economy in spite of support from China, and China would have to start pouring massively more amounts of treasure into North Korea if they were to annex North Korea and make all of North Korea’s problems its own.

Or some hypothetical non-*juche *overlords could institute reforms to clean up some of the problems, like not preventing people from growing their own gardens, removing beach barriers preventing them from securing a living from the sea shore, stop the random crackdowns and persecutions of local traders, and so forth.

By all accounts North Koreans are resourceful and not afraid of hard work. If some of the stupid crap getting in the way of people being self-sufficient/self-supporting were eliminated the country would definitely improve. If they no longer had to support a massively oversized army and a decadent ruling elite there’d be more for everyone else.

Would it make North Korea a paradise? No, but it would make for a real improvement.

You’ve got this completely wrong. I’m not assuming China would be driving this. I’m assuming China would be running from the idea as quickly as they could, because that is what they are doing right now. They have shown zero desire to accept refugees from North Korea, much less take over North Korea.

The problem is that everyone wants to run away from the problem of a post-Kim North Korea. The US doesn’t want it. China doesn’t want it. South Korea speaks of reunification but I suspect they want reunification after things improve.

So… let’s say Pyongyang falls - who gets to clean up the mess? Who isn’t going to try to run away from 23 million indoctrinated and starving North Koreans?

Why would you imagine any North Korean desires for annexation to be of any value if tomorrow in bizarro-world this came to pass?

I have this queer notion that people should have some say in their own destiny.

China still doesn’t want them. If Mexico held a vote tomorrow expressing its desire to be annexed by the US, does it follow that the US is obliged to annex Mexico?

No, but I’d like to think that the US would at least address the question instead of merely running away.

Or to take an example where the amount of political freedom and the ecomony are closer to as bad as they are in North Korea (honestly -if North Korean’s got to vote tomorrow?), if Somalia voted to become a part of the US tomorrow, does it follow that Somalia is now a part of the US and that the existing US has no say in the matter?

Again, even if the US did not want them they should at least acknowledge such a vote and reject it in a dignified manner.

Uh-huh. All of Korean culture was obliterated in 1950?

That’s not what I said and you know it

I also must say it is amusing to see you to question Monty’s credentials for his opinions on Korea.

As I already noted, Monty’s location field indicates he is in China. I had no way of knowing he’d spent time in South Korea until he told me so. I don’t know why people expect mind-reading on an internet message board.

[HazelNutCoffee]

I do think Broomstick is right about the fact that most younger Koreans don’t really care about unification. Many of us think it is a good thing in an abstract sort of way but none of us have the same sort of emotional ties to NK as our grandparents do.

[dgrdfd]

So what will NK do tomorrow? They’ve upped the rhetoric each day now for seemingly two weeks. Tomorrow an actual missile test?

[Magiver]

@sweat209

Has any war scenario been done on how long war will be and death toll.

scenario one no nukes use and scenario two nuke used.

considering what happened to Iraq when they attacked Kuwait I would hazard a guess that NK would have 15 to 30 minutes of use of their missiles and artillery before it’s all shut down. They can’t really field much of an air war so they won’t have any air support to back up a mechanized unit. Tank drivers are literally not going to know what hit them.

[Boyo_Jim]

@Magiver

considering what happened to Iraq when they attacked Kuwait I would hazard a guess that NK would have 15 to 30 minutes of use of their missiles and artillery before it’s all shut down. They can’t really field much of an air war so they won’t have any air support to back up a mechanized unit. Tank drivers are literally not going to know what hit them.

This is nonsense, unless NK stops because they run out of ammunition. The US does not have sufficient force in place to knock out thousands of artillery guns in days, let alone 15 minutes. Consider Iraq, where the US had weeks of virtually unopposed aerial bombing and still was unable to destroy a significant amount of Iraqi hardware, and most of that was sitting out on a desert floor, and not squirreled away in mountains.

[Klaatu]

I really appreciate the responses to my OP. My impression now is that the old guard generals consider Kim a dumbass, and they themselves want to go down in a blaze of glory.

There seems to be a growing consensus that Kim is clueless and does not realize the state of the North Korean military, and he is getting bullshit from the generals.

I am wondering if this kid actually understands what he is being told by the old guard and he actually believes he can achieve some kind of “victory”

As I said in my OP, North Korea is taking itself down

[Boyo_Jim]

Forgot to add, despite assigning hundreds of planes to the “Scud Hunt”, the US was unable to prevent the Scud attacks on Israel. Most reports I’ve read say they were never able to destroy even a single mobile scud launcher.

[Klaatu]

@Boyo_Jim

Forgot to add, despite assigning hundreds of planes to the “Scud Hunt”, the US was unable to prevent the Scud attacks on Israel. Most reports I’ve read say they were never able to destroy even a single mobile scud launcher.

Agreed, but would you hope the US comes up with an effective anti-missile system?

And if not please tell me why…

Jus sayin, It would be cool if we could stop missiles aimed at our houses right?
Politics aside.

[Boyo_Jim]

@Klaatu

Agreed, but would you hope the US comes up with an effective anti-missile system?

And if not please tell me why…

Jus sayin, It would be cool if we could stop missiles aimed at our houses right?
Politics aside.

WTF does this have to do with anything? I was responding to the ridiculous claim that the US and/or SK could destroy the thousands (possibly tens of thousands) of NK artillery pieces and missile launchers in half an hour.

And if your public profile is accurate, being in New Mexico means you have no worries at all about NK missiles showering down on your neighborhood.

[Magiver]

@Boyo_Jim

This is nonsense, unless NK stops because they run out of ammunition. The US does not have sufficient force in place to knock out thousands of artillery guns in days, let alone 15 minutes. Consider Iraq, where the US had weeks of virtually unopposed aerial bombing and still was unable to destroy a significant amount of Iraqi hardware, and most of that was sitting out on a desert floor, and not squirreled away in mountains.

fixed position artillery is toast after the first round fired because the trajectory is easily tracked and calculated for return fire. That’s not the problem. The problem is the first volleys of their artillery and field rockets aimed at civilian targets and the resulting casualties which would be substantial. But if NK pulls the trigger it’s not going to be a long war.

[Boyo_Jim]

@Klaatu

Agreed, but would you hope the US comes up with an effective anti-missile system?

And if not please tell me why…

Jus sayin, It would be cool if we could stop missiles aimed at our houses right?
Politics aside.

Let me add another comment about this. The US has adapted the Patriot missile relatively cheaply to shoot down short range missile threats, and likewise the AA missile systems on some of its Aegis equipped missile cruisers and destroyer. However, it they (or we, if you like) were facing tens of thousands of shells and missiles flying at us over the course of a very few minutes, certainly out present systems would be immediately swamped and I am very doubtful that any conceivable system wouldn’t be effectively useless as well.

[Patty_O_Furniture]

@dgrdfd

So what will NK do tomorrow? They’ve upped the rhetoric each day now for seemingly two weeks. Tomorrow an actual missile test?

Not yet - first they’d have to warn foreign consulates and dignitaries that it’s not safe to stay. Like this:

North Korea warns embassies it can’t guarantee safety.

[Boyo_Jim]

@Magiver

fixed position artillery is toast after the first round fired because the trajectory is easily tracked and calculated for return fire. That’s not the problem. The problem is the first volleys of their artillery and field rockets aimed at civilian targets and the resulting casualties.

They will get off many rounds before anyone can even give orders to return fire. How many radar sets does SK have? One for every gun pointing at them? How many artillery pieces does SK have to return fire?

I’ll make a crazy guess here. I’ve seen many reports that NK has more than 10,000 artillery pieces along the border. I’m gonna bet that if there are 10,000 (or even 5,000) shells flying in at once, the SK and US radars are going to be utterly useless for that kind of tracking. I’m thinking in terms of other articles I’ve seen about AWACS and Patriot radars, which are reported to be able to track 200-300 targets simultaneously.

And I think my guess is about 100 times more probable than your guess that the US and the ROK combined have the power to wipe out the North’s offense capability in less than an hour.

[Boyo_Jim]

Just found an interesting report from the Institute for Strategic Studies comparing the balance of power on the Korean peninsula. Until recently Western military planners have operated under the assumption that a NK invasion would take Seoul, but in the last 10-15 years or so, they now think that US/ROK forces might be able to stave off an attack until reinforcements arrive.

The article has several interesting assumptions. First off, it doesn’t envision NK ordering just an artillery barrage on Seoul, but rather a barrage in conjunction with an invasion. It does give some support to Magiver’s claim, noting:

… In their current positions, a large percentage of North Korea’s estimated 10,000 or so artillery pieces are deployed within range of Seoul, with the capability to fire several rounds a minute. The initial speed of a fired shell is generally around half a kilometre per second. Therefore, even if an allied counter-battery radar, some 10km away picked up a North Korean missile or artillery shell and established a track on it within seconds, a counter-strike would not be able to silence the North Korean gun or launcher for at least a minute. As a result, one artillery piece could probably fire 2–5 rounds before being neutralised or forced to retreat into its shelter. Theoretically, several thousand artillery rounds could land in Seoul no matter how hard the allies tried to prevent or stop the attack.

I’m gonna look for, and maybe not find, info on how many target it would take to overwhelm a counter-battery radar. Another point mentioned here is that it is possible for fixed artillery to be mobile enough to fire a few rounds and then retreat into a shelter, and in mountainous terrain it seems likely that there are many, relatively strong shelters.

Here’s another relevant quote that NK’s has many times the ballistic missile capability than Iraq did:

… Fifthly, North Korea’s arsenal of unconventional weapons and ballistic missiles is estimated to be much more potent than Iraq’s. In the case of Iraq, US military planners assumed that Baghdad had a relatively small arsenal of chemical and biological weapons, which would not be effective on the battlefield against protected coalition forces and could not be delivered in large amounts against cities beyond Iraq’s borders. In contrast, North Korea is assumed to have thousands of tonnes of chemical and possibly biological weapons, which can be delivered against Seoul via numerous short-range weapons or against cities throughout South Korea and Japan via longer-range missiles. Iraq was thought to have a handful of ageing ballistic missiles, while North Korea is believed to have hundreds of ballistic missiles. Finally, Washington was confident that Iraq did not have any nuclear weapons, while North Korea is thought to possess a small nuclear capability. Though the use of its presumed nuclear arsenal would invite nuclear retaliation, Pyongyang has effectively tried to foster the impression that it would take suicidal actions as a last resort if faced with a military threat to extinguish its regime…

However, since Western military planners believe that there’s a good chance that NK could attack and capture Seoul if it decided to, that’s a pretty strong inference that they don’t think they can destroy the bulk of NK’s long range weapons on the first few minutes of battle.

[Magiver]

I have no way of hunting this down but I saw a military official infer what I just posted. Shutting them down was not the problem. the initial loss of civilian life was the problem. Or put another way, WE wouldn’t start a war because of that but NK was lose and lose quickly if they started a war.

It’s to the point now that A-10’s are becoming a thing of the past. If we control the skies then tank battalions are attacked with B-52’s which can drop weapons that break out into autonomous anti-tank weapons. 3rd world countries just don’t have the dial-ability of weaponry that we have to customize a war.

Note that I’m not downplaying the ability to inflict casualties. That’s a given. But NK will immediately lose their communication/command structure and then air support. It’s just going to be chaos after that.

[Monty]

I’m curious about something, now, Broomstick. How, exactly, does my living in China negate or even discredit somewhat the posts I’ve made in this thread? After all, what I’ve posted isn’t some kind of gnostic secret. More than a few reputable sources over the years have touched on these issues time and time again.