Is North Korea ready to commit "State Suicide" ?

[Broomstick]

@Dissonance

This is utter bullocks, and part of the Chinese justification for invading Tibet was that it has historically been considered a part of China by the Chinese.

Oddly enough, though, the Tibetans have a different take on that.

I don’t see why today’s world should be dictated to by national boundaries that existed some time in the past. If it would work out better to NOT reunited the two Koreas then that’s what should be done. If reunification works better, then fine. What bothers me is the twofold assumption that we MUST reunite the two Koreas and that it’s somehow a terrible thing to consider all possible alternatives, even if some are unlikely or improbable.

Japan considered Korea as a colonial conquest, not a part of Japan proper, and it certainly didn’t consider Koreans to be Japanese citizens.

And yet, the ethnic Koreans living in the province adjoining North Korea are, in fact, Chinese citizens. In other words, it’s not inconceivable for Koreans to become Chinese citizens. Better yet, there doesn’t seem to be a festering sore of violent separatist groups as there are in other places.

It’s clearly a much better assumption than thinking it will be decided by “Great Powers” and that China is going to annex North Korea.

Oh, please - the Great Powers have been yanking the Koreans one way or the other since the Japanese occupation. After WWII when the Japanese were finally evicted they were split down the middle by China, the USSR, and the US. For over a century the “Great Powers” have been calling the shots and you think that will suddenly end?

Seriously? You think that in order to avoid having illegal and unwanted immigration from poverty stricken North Korea China would want to take over all of the unwanted poverty stricken North Koreans?

The rationale would be keeping the North Koreans in their homes and upgrading the farms and factories already in place, rather than have millions of people without jobs or possessions flooding across the border, disrupting the lives of the residents there. Better spread out over North Korean than concentrated in refugee camps.

:rolleyes: No, I don’t limit culture to “the arts or something.” I also don’t confuse political indoctrination with national culture. Totalitarianism isn’t national culture. Germany wasn’t culturally closer to the USSR than to say, Austria when the Nazis were in charge but before the anschluss. East Germany wasn’t culturally closer to Romania than it was to West Germany when both East Germany and Romania were behind the Iron Curtain and ruled by totalitarian dictatorships.

The difference is that while Germany, Austria, etc. were exposed to the rest of the world and the ideas of the rest of the world the extreme form of North Korean socialism/autarkism means that politics is the only culture. Songs are about the Great/Dear/Outstanding Leader(s) and fighting the Yankee bastards. Political views permeate all textbooks. What is permitted in literature, film, and everything else is very strictly controlled by the government. But persist in your failure to comprehend, it doesn’t matter to me.

[Magiver]

@Broomstick

If I recall, China has treaties with North Korea similar to those the US has with the South. They are pledged to defend their ally if their ally is attacked. Granted, governments don’t always keep their word, but sometimes they do.

China be frustrated with Lil kim.

[Broomstick]

@Damuri_Ajashi

They guns you are talking about can’t flatten a decent size chunk of very much. These are artillery not nukes. Its still better to avoid even the indecent flattening but if we had actionable intelligence that they were about to start shooting, it would be prefereable to what would happen if we let them get off one volley.

Get enough fires started with conventional artillery and you’ll have a firestorm or conflagration that wipes out a good part of a city. Plenty of cities in WWII were seriously damaged by conventional weaponry, Dresden (Feb 13-15, 1945) and Tokyo (March 9-10, 1945) being two of the better known. The Tokyo bombing raid actually was more destructive than either of the two atomic bombs dropped individually considered, with a higher death toll.

The two major differences between conventional and nuclear destruction of a city is that conventional weapons take longer, and atomic weapons involve radiation.

[Martin_Hyde]

@Marley23

That doesn’t answer the question. Martin Hyde addressed how this might be spun to the public (which was my initial question), but if this is directed at the leaders of the military and other powerful insiders - some people theorize that they’re marginalizing Kim or competing with him, though I have no idea at all if that’s true - how does it come across as a win?

I think Kim is walking in his father’s footsteps. Typically the North has always had some level of fit in response to the annual US-SK military drills. Sometimes it’s very mild, sometimes not, this is definitely one of the most tense responses.

I think the building escalation from North Korea testing a long range missile, getting sanctioned, testing another nuke, getting even worse sanctions meant that this time the US-SK war games were a perfect time for Kim the 3rd to do what his father had done several times: ratchet up a crisis to both solidify power at home and get some concession from the rest of the world.

I think the concession could be as little as “not attacking North Korea”, I do think that could be spun the right way. Things had been very tense, North Korea has literally said “we’re going to nuke the United States”, and it can be spun that we basically did nothing in response. We were afraid of the might of the DPRK and its indomitable military etc.

Now, I doubt that is the “best win” scenario, but it’s certainly spinnable for the regime. Best case I imagine they were hoping some relaxation in the newest sanctions come about.

I do not actually think the NKs expect to start receiving aid to the degree they did when they were (theoretically) giving up nuclear weapons development in exchange for the aid. I don’t think the North Korean regime is entirely stupid, I think they know aid of that kind is probably off the table. Medical aid and such could definitely be increased. (I think South Korea has still been sending that as recently as a few weeks ago.)

It’s also worth pointing out that North Korea doesn’t need aid. It’s got enough economic activity and agricultural output that it can survive just fine without outside aid. The idea that North Korea is imminently going to collapse without aid just isn’t true. Now, over many years they could collapse due to a failed economic philosophy and eventual disillusionment of its people just like much of the Soviet bloc collapsed, but that’s not imminent.

During the famine of the 1990s if North Korea had received no aid from the outside world I do not know what would have happened. It’s very possible they would have collapsed then, but they receive substantial aid from China and from the West during that time.

FWIW I think both the United States and North Korea want to deescalate this now. I don’t know if North Korea is happy with what happened, but I’d say the U.S. ran a decent playbook. We responded to aggression without whimpering but instead with a forceful response that drew clear lines on North Korean behavior and enforced the concept that we are willing to meet force with force if they decide to engage us or our allies in such a manner. It’s been leaked that we’re now ready to “step down” our approach unless North Korea does something else to enflame tensions.

On North Korea’s end, they tried to get Beijing to send a high level emissary the other day (North Korea in a fit had refused to accept one a little while back, customarily North Korea and Beijing have exchanged high level diplomatic officers for talks periodically throughout their relationship) and Beijing refused. This shows that North Korea realizes they have perhaps gone too far, since they are reaching out to Beijing which earlier they had spurned. Beijing, for its part, is also showing North Korea going too far has consequences, as they’ve said it’s now up to North Korea to send someone to talk with them, not vice-versa.

[usedtobe]

China does not want NK refugees - when they get one they send it back - guaranteeing it and its family will be enslaved for the rest of their lives, and possibly another generation.

The North is already a failed state - if China continues to enforce the UN sanctions, its military development will come to a halt.

If China were to cut off the fuel supply (there is an actual pipeline) again, the North will freeze (it’s winter there).

The question remains: how long before it shoots off a missile at noting and then proclaims victory?

And will they be rewarded like they have been previously?

I suspect that very little of what is going on is being done in public - Kim has his internal audience (toward which this saber-rattling is aimed); the US has its people to keep happy.

What is surprising is that SK changed its rules of engagement - and did so publicly.

[usedtobe]

And how much blowback did he get for killing the generals and taking the hard-money generating industries from the military? Is he now trying to out-hardline the guys who want to put a bullet in his head?

And who is this uncle who’s buddy was just named premier? Is it possible that he is actually pulling the strings?

[sweat209]

The crisis on the Korean peninsula is escalating dangerously.

There is no doubt about the desperation of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

The North’s meagre attempts at economic reforms have stalled, the food shortages are growing and aid from outside the country has come to a halt due to the missile launches and nuclear test.

Even soldiers cannot get enough to eat.

North Korea crisis: Blustering Kim Jong-un leaves himself no way out

May be this is why he is so desperate is to distract domestic problems. And could be other problems in the communist party or army he is trying to distract of he problems of holding on to power or party split.

[Wesley_Clark]

@Wesley_Clark

No, the new leader is trying to build his credentials within the military and to the public of NK for propaganda purposes.

I assume NK will push, maybe start a skirmish and when the US and SK back off, the North will claim victory.

Boom

Wait and see. It sucks, I wouldn’t be surprised if they kidnap a few people and keep them prisoner in NK, or if they make a few minor attacks on military targets in the south. I would assume one of those things.

[Trinopus]

Today, local right-wing hate-radio host Roger Hedgecock (who’s substituted for Rush Limbaugh a few times) was pushing the “EMP Bomb” fantasy. He tried to convince his listeners that NK would detonate an EMP-producing nuclear warhead, somewhere over the Pacific, which would (he fantasizes) knock out all electronic communication and control over the whole ocean, reducing our military to helplessness. And, since it isn’t really a nuclear attack – doesn’t destroy entire cities – the U.S. would be helpless to retaliate.

The EMP fantasy has become a staple of conspiracy-theory guys. I don’t see it at all. It’s like, I shoot you with a gun, but since it only fires blanks, and all it does is deafen you, you aren’t going to shoot back at me. Like hell?

[RandMcnally]

@Trinopus

Today, local right-wing hate-radio host Roger Hedgecock (who’s substituted for Rush Limbaugh a few times) was pushing the “EMP Bomb” fantasy. He tried to convince his listeners that NK would detonate an EMP-producing nuclear warhead, somewhere over the Pacific, which would (he fantasizes) knock out all electronic communication and control over the whole ocean, reducing our military to helplessness. And, since it isn’t really a nuclear attack – doesn’t destroy entire cities – the U.S. would be helpless to retaliate.

The EMP fantasy has become a staple of conspiracy-theory guys. I don’t see it at all. It’s like, I shoot you with a gun, but since it only fires blanks, and all it does is deafen you, you aren’t going to shoot back at me. Like hell?

This was the plot to the book “One Second After,” where North Korea used three nukes over the U.S. North Korea was then completely destroyed.

[sweat209]

@Trinopus

Today, local right-wing hate-radio host Roger Hedgecock (who’s substituted for Rush Limbaugh a few times) was pushing the “EMP Bomb” fantasy. He tried to convince his listeners that NK would detonate an EMP-producing nuclear warhead, somewhere over the Pacific, which would (he fantasizes) knock out all electronic communication and control over the whole ocean, reducing our military to helplessness. And, since it isn’t really a nuclear attack – doesn’t destroy entire cities – the U.S. would be helpless to retaliate.

The EMP fantasy has become a staple of conspiracy-theory guys. I don’t see it at all. It’s like, I shoot you with a gun, but since it only fires blanks, and all it does is deafen you, you aren’t going to shoot back at me. Like hell?

But than using your logic if North Korea sends nukes the US could use EMP to disrupt the navigation where nuke is to go.

[XT]

@RandMcnally

This was the plot to the book “One Second After,” where North Korea used three nukes over the U.S. North Korea was then completely destroyed.

It would certainly be an act of war, and one using WMD against the US. Or policy is clear on that…we retaliate in kind for any sort of strike like this, and our default setting for WMD attacks like this is the use of nuclear weapons. Even if we didn’t use nukes, we’d certainly unleash our conventional forces on them, and there is no way the north could survive that. The south would get pounded, but the north and the current regime would be destroyed, and it’s definitely fantasy to think that such an attack would not bring on such a retaliation.

[Monty]

Broomstick: Do you not understand that the ethnic Koreans in China consider themselves Koreans? They certainly don’t consider themselves North Korean citizens; however, they do consider themselves Korean. Of course, the availability of multiple sources for news, the actual standard of living they have in China, and the greater freedoms compared to what’s permitted in North Korea are not conducive to a wish to become part of North Korea under its current system.

Another thing is that Koreans in both North Korea and South Korea are emotionally invested with the concept of national reunification. The approximately fifty million people in South Korea, except for the communist sympathizers (aka traitors), are understandably not all that interested in losing their hard-fought economic miracle all to become subjects of that figurehead up North and his string-pullers.

[sweat209]

@Trinopus

Today, local right-wing hate-radio host Roger Hedgecock (who’s substituted for Rush Limbaugh a few times) was pushing the “EMP Bomb” fantasy. He tried to convince his listeners that NK would detonate an EMP-producing nuclear warhead, somewhere over the Pacific, which would (he fantasizes) knock out all electronic communication and control over the whole ocean, reducing our military to helplessness. And, since it isn’t really a nuclear attack – doesn’t destroy entire cities – the U.S. would be helpless to retaliate.

The EMP fantasy has become a staple of conspiracy-theory guys. I don’t see it at all. It’s like, I shoot you with a gun, but since it only fires blanks, and all it does is deafen you, you aren’t going to shoot back at me. Like hell?

Well I think if North Korea really wants to do damage they do it before the US puts the missile defence systems in place.

North Korea threats: Missile defences in the region

The US has deployed missile defence systems in response to North Korea’s threats against its neighbours.

The defences, which have the capability to shoot down missiles inside and outside the Earth’s atmosphere, will be ready within weeks, the Pentagon says.

Along with the US, North Korea’s neighbours Japan and South Korea also have missile defences in the area.

[Dissonance]

@Broomstick

Oddly enough, though, the Tibetans have a different take on that.

No shit. Way to completely miss the point yet again. Rightly or wrongly (wrongly IMO), China considers Tibet to be part of China. China has never considered Korea to be a part of China. I don’t know how many different ways I can possibly try to explain this to you; China’s invasion of Tibet does not set a precedent for incorporating North Korea into China.

I don’t see why today’s world should be dictated to by national boundaries that existed some time in the past. If it would work out better to NOT reunited the two Koreas then that’s what should be done. If reunification works better, then fine. What bothers me is the twofold assumption that we MUST reunite the two Koreas and that it’s somehow a terrible thing to consider all possible alternatives, even if some are unlikely or improbable.

It isn’t a question of “national boundaries that existed some time in the past”. The national border dividing Korea from Manchuria is very, very, very long-standing. It’s the Yalu River. It divides not just nations but cultures.

And yet, the ethnic Koreans living in the province adjoining North Korea are, in fact, Chinese citizens. In other words, it’s not inconceivable for Koreans to become Chinese citizens. Better yet, there doesn’t seem to be a festering sore of violent separatist groups as there are in other places.

What does this have to do with the price of tea in China? Ethnic Hispanics living in states bordering Mexico are, in fact, US citizens. In other words, it’s not inconceivable for Mexicans to become US citizens. It does not follow from this, however, that the US would want to annex Mexico, that it would be a good idea, or that Mexico would want to be annexed by the US. Again, it’s absurd to think China, which doesn’t want immigration from North Korea as it stands, would want to take over the entire mess that is the North Korean economy by annexing it into China in order to avoid the problem of North Korean immigration into China.

Oh, please - the Great Powers have been yanking the Koreans one way or the other since the Japanese occupation. After WWII when the Japanese were finally evicted they were split down the middle by China, the USSR, and the US. For over a century the “Great Powers” have been calling the shots and you think that will suddenly end?

You really need to do some reading up on the history of Korea if you think “the Great Powers” have been pulling all the shots in Korea since the end of WW2. Just to quickly clue you in on a few things, North Korea invaded the South on its own. China only became involved when it felt threatened by the UN forces closing on the Yalu River. Neither China nor the USSR has stationed troops in North Korea since the Korean War. Clearly no “Great Power” has been calling the shots on the North Korean nuclear program.

The rationale would be keeping the North Koreans in their homes and upgrading the farms and factories already in place, rather than have millions of people without jobs or possessions flooding across the border, disrupting the lives of the residents there. Better spread out over North Korean than concentrated in refugee camps.

That’s a rationale for North Korea not becoming a part of China, not a rationale for China trying to annex North Korea. If it annexes North Korea all of its problems become China’s problems.

The difference is that while Germany, Austria, etc. were exposed to the rest of the world and the ideas of the rest of the world the extreme form of North Korean socialism/autarkism means that politics is the only culture. Songs are about the Great/Dear/Outstanding Leader(s) and fighting the Yankee bastards. Political views permeate all textbooks. What is permitted in literature, film, and everything else is very strictly controlled by the government.

I hate to break it to you but people in North Korea still speak Korean, eat Korean food, read Korean writings, etc. Politics are hardly the only culture of North Korea. You also seem not to note that China is part of the rest of the world that North Korea isolates itself from. Again, how is North Korea culturally closer to China than to South Korea? I’ll save you some time: it’s not.

But persist in your failure to comprehend, it doesn’t matter to me.

The irony, it burns.

[usedtobe]

Hey kids!

There’s a site run by the China-interpreted-for-westerners newspaper, Global Times.

Be sure to notice that many of the articles on the front page are clearly labelled as “Op-Ed”.
For those who don’t understand newspapers, Op-Ed was originally the pare facing (opposite) the Editorial page - it was where, in the spirit of “represent all sides” it would run letters expressing ideas NOT THE SAME as the paper’s position.

Keeping that in mind (and sometimes, the “Most Read” list contains Op-Ed pieces), it’s a good place to see how the Chinese media (and thus, the govt) see the world.

Oddly enough, THEY are debating whether it would be acceptable to have the US occupy NK and install a puppet govt. In the process, you get to see how intelligent and thoughtful Chinese view the US (not surprisingly, they don’t like the way the US pushes people around)

[usedtobe]

Here’s a real subtle one: Look up Kow-Tow and where it came from. It explains much of the Chinese attitude towards its neighbors. And the rest of the world. History in China goes back 6000 years (sorry, Young Earthers).

[Broomstick]

@Monty

Broomstick: Do you not understand that the ethnic Koreans in China consider themselves Koreans?

Yes. On the other hand, they’ve been there for generations. There is no mass exodus, no bloody separatist movement. They’re Koreans in China, but not particularly oppressed, certainly not in comparison to North Koreans.

Please note that I have ALSO always emphasized this has to be something the Koreans accept and they may not want to accept it.

Of course, the availability of multiple sources for news, the actual standard of living they have in China, and the greater freedoms compared to what’s permitted in North Korea are not conducive to a wish to become part of North Korea under its current system.

Indeed. Which is why I say making North Korea an autonomous province of China is something to consider. Oh, I know it’s highly unlikely under any circumstances but it would result in a much better situation for the present North Koreans.

You do understand that North Koreans are indoctrinated from birth to believe Americans are inherently evil and delight in war, murder, and mayhem, intent on abusing and killing the people of North Korea? That there are children’s nursery rhymes that described killing the bastard Americans? In George Orwell’s 1984 there was the 5 minute’s hate at Emmanuel Goldstein, but in today’s North Korea the US is cast in that role 24/7 and are blamed for all that’s bad and evil in their nation and the world. Are you so certain that such a group of people can suddenly be persuaded to perform a 180 and become part of a nation that is closely allied with such monsters?

Another thing is that Koreans in both North Korea and South Korea are emotionally invested with the concept of national reunification. The approximately fifty million people in South Korea, except for the communist sympathizers (aka traitors), are understandably not all that interested in losing their hard-fought economic miracle all to become subjects of that figurehead up North and his string-pullers.

Are you so certain that the South Koreans are still “emotionally invested” with that concept? As you say, they don’t want to lose their “hard-fought economic miracle” and absorbing the North will produce a much greater shock than when Germany reunited due to the much greater disparity. As it is now, the Southerns regard those from the North as uneducated, backward, unsophisticated, and ill-mannered. Defectors face significant discrimination in the South both in seeking jobs and socially. I think there is plenty of lip-service given to reunification, I’m not so certain the current generation of young adults really care. They’ve grown up in the world as it currently is, and by and large South Korea seems content to ignore the horrors north of them so long as they aren’t directly affected.

I realize that, on a certain level, it’s heresy to suggest that reunification may not be a universally sought goal any more but I think it’s a question that needs to be asked.

[Broomstick]

@Dissonance

No shit. Way to completely miss the point yet again. Rightly or wrongly (wrongly IMO), China considers Tibet to be part of China. China has never considered Korea to be a part of China. I don’t know how many different ways I can possibly try to explain this to you; China’s invasion of Tibet does not set a precedent for incorporating North Korea into China.

I’m not talking about China invading North Korea. Do you fail to see where I keep saying it’s up to the Koreans? What if, entirely hypothetically, the majority in the North decided they’d rather be connected to China that the south? Are you seriously saying that if the North Koreans made that choice China would say no?

What does this have to do with the price of tea in China? Ethnic Hispanics living in states bordering Mexico are, in fact, US citizens. In other words, it’s not inconceivable for Mexicans to become US citizens. It does not follow from this, however, that the US would want to annex Mexico, that it would be a good idea, or that Mexico would want to be annexed by the US.

Actually, the US did annex a fair portion of Mexico - that’s where the US got California, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico. You’re right, Mexico wasn’t happy, but since the US had marched all the way to Mexico City it could have been a lot worse. On the other hand, why some ethnic Mexicans in those states might want to be part of Mexico again there is no big push for it, everyone seems to have learned to live with it.

There are other possible political arrangements, being a protectorate of some sort for example.

Again, it’s absurd to think China, which doesn’t want immigration from North Korea as it stands, would want to take over the entire mess that is the North Korean economy by annexing it into China in order to avoid the problem of North Korean immigration into China.

They’re already the main prop that keeps that nation from collapsing. There are already people wanting to emigrate to China.

That’s a rationale for North Korea not becoming a part of China, not a rationale for China trying to annex North Korea. If it annexes North Korea all of its problems become China’s problems.

Again, you’re assuming that it would be China driving this. Again, consider if the North Koreans got to vote on their fate and remarkably made that decision.

I hate to break it to you but people in North Korea still speak Korean, eat Korean food, read Korean writings, etc. Politics are hardly the only culture of North Korea.

Right - the people of North Korea eat ONLY Korean food, read ONLY Korean - more specifically, only North Korean - writings, etc. They have no exposure to anything else (well, some is starting to seep in, but not much). The South, on the other hand, happily consumes global mass culture.

[Monty]

Broomstick: Having lived in South Korea for approximately a total of nine years, I think I’m fairly conversant on the issue.