Is ROTK a shoo-in for Oscar?

For me, the nomination for the Oscars is the real honor. After that, it’s all just politics.

And I’m happy that TTT was honored so, though I don’t see it having a realistic shot of winning. That said, with FOTR and TTT garnering nominations, I have no reason to think that ROTK won’t either.

I do wonder if that has a shot at the big prize. Kind of the Academy’s way of rewarding PJ for all three?

The year is young, it’s too soon to say what films might come along and wow the Oscar committee.

I would say the FotR and TTT being nominated for Best Pic make a nom for RotK more likely, but I don’t think it’s a sure thing.

what is:

FotR and RotK. I could respond but I’m not real good at “net” lingo.

LotR = Lord of the Rings, which consists of three books/movies:
FotR = Fellowship of the Rings
TTT = The Two Towers
RotK = Return of the King
JRR = J. R. R. Tolkien, the author
PJ = Peter Jackson, the guy who made the movies
SPUT = The sound your head makes when it explodes from all these acronyms.

now do you have to remember all of those or do they become ingrained in your memory from watching LOTR fifty eight thousand times??

I think ROTK has an excellent chance of winning the BP oscar. As the concluding film it’s likely to be more satisfying than the first two. It’s likely to get a lot of critical acclaim and make a boatload of money, just the combination that the Academy likes.

Finally now that the first two films have received BP nominations there will be huge momentum for the third one. Of course there is a bias against fantasy films but IMO the BP nomination for TTT is a clear signal that the Academy is willing to look beyond that for this series. They could quite easily have ignored TTT for BP this year but they choose not to.

You only need to watch the movies fifty SEVEN thousand times before they’re ingrained. Every viewing after that is just gravy.

Only one sequel has ever won the Best Picture Oscar: Godfather Part 2. And that followed a win by the original.

My gut tells me that if LOTR couldn’t sway the Academy, neither TTT or ROTK have a shot.

Then again, Alfred Hitchcock never won a BP Oscar either…

<waits for inevitable correction> :slight_smile:

BP for ROTK? Here’s why I’m not gonna put my money on it just yet.

  1. It might not be different enough from TTT. Much of what happens in TTT is echoed in ROTK. PJ, I trust, can take some of the SS,DD stuff up a notch, amplify it, and use the similarities poetically. Even so:
    If ROTK is too similar to TTT, it will leave FOTR as the odd one of the three. Whether that’s okay for ROTK depends, I think, on whether FOTR is remembered as better than TTT by about this time next year (we really wanted something more like FOTR, we got TTT again). To stay on the safe side, ROTK will need to be as different from TTT as TTT is from FOTR.

  2. It might not even be that good. There’s a lot of stuff left to do, even without the scouring of the shire and some of the other predictable cuts. I had trusted PJ before to be able to get a lot done without a rushed, compromised feeling. But after TTT, I feel like I have to reconsider that.

Example: the deal with the Ents, and the way the hobbits led Treebeard to Isengard, was IMHO a bandage. True, there wasn’t time to follow the books here. But the way it was handled didn’t do the Ents much justice.

Don’t get me wrong… I liked TTT, rather a lot, seen it three times. But the flaws in Two Towers were hard to ignore, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see similar flaws in ROTK.

Not true. Hitchcock’s Rebecca won Best Picture in 1940. That was Hitchcock’s first nod for Director, losing to John Ford. He’d lose 4 more times.

As for LOTR, I think it’s a lock for a Picture nod, as well as a few more it didn’t get this year (though probably not as many as 13 for FOTR). Like CyberPundit said, they didn’t need to give TTT a Picture nod (they didn’t with Empire in 1980, despite the 10 nominations, including Picture, that Star Wars got three years earlier), but they did, showing a large amount of support across the Academy. There’s no reason to think the other film will be any worse than the first two (they were shot concurrently), plus there will be an emotional payoff that the first two, for obvious reasons, didn’t have. That may well be enough to put it over the top. Hope so.

Not to pick nits but the Hitchcock directed Rebecca won the 1941 Oscar for Best Picture.

You are correct in pointing out that Hitchcock never won an Oscar for Best Direction.

John Ford won the second of his four(!) Best Director awards for The Grapes of Wrath.

Picking nits in my own post, Hitchcock’s Rebecca was the Best Picture of 1940, beating out nine other nominees. (Including Ford’s Grapes of Wrath.)

Directors do not win Best Picture Oscars, producers do. The award for Rebecca went to producer David O. Selznick, who was one of the most powerful men in Hollywood at the time. (Hitchcock, on the other hand, was a newcomer.) Thus no one ever counts the Rebecca Oscar as Hitchcock’s, as it was clearly meant as a recognition of Selznick.

ROTK will have one big additonal factor going for it: the guilt factor. New Line will be able to mount a campaign saying, “this set of movies is beloved by the public, adored by the critics, and has made a boatload of cash, and the Academy hasn’t given it a single major award.” The Academy loves to “correct” past oversights.

Up front, while I’m only a tepid Tolkien fan, I’ve liked both of Peter Jackson’s films so far, and “The Two Towers” is by far my favorite of the films up for Best Picture this year.

In addition, I have no special clairvoyance. I can’t possibly know how good ROTK will be, nor can I know how strong the competition will be next year. So, like evryone else, I’m only making educated guesses, based on what little I know of show biz trends.

That said, do I think “The Two Towers” has a prayer of winning an Oscar this year in anything but technical categories?

No.

Do I think ROTK will be a strong contender for Best Picture NEXT year?

No. It may well get nominated, just as its predecessors were, but I can’t see it winning.

Why? Many reasons, but the big ones?

  1. It doesn’t have major Hollywood power brokers touting it. ANY piece of crud that Harvey Weinstein distributes next year has a better shot at winning the Oscar than ROTK. Even when a Weinstein flick is NEITHER a big hit NOR critically acclaimed (“Chocolat” and “Cider House Rules” were neither), it’s an Oscar contender because Harvey SAYS it’s an Oscar contender.

  2. Peter Jackson is an outsider, a foreigner, and he isn’t part of the Hollywood scene. Hollywood is extremely insular, and loath to reward someone who isn’t “one of their own.” The mere fact that he wasn’t nominated for Best Director (despite the fact that “The Two Towers” is more director-driven than any of the other contenders and EVERYTHING in the film flows from Jackson’s vision) speaks volumes: he doesn’t command respect in Hollywood.

  3. The LOTR series just isn’t the KIND of movie the Hollywood establishment likes to embrace. The Hollywood establishment wants to vote for the kind of movie David Lean and Merchant/Ivory specialize in: lush, historical epics, period pieces, preferably with a politically correct, feel-good message. Fantasy films, no matter how good or how successful, just aren’t going to appeal to older Hollywood veterans.

I’d love to be wrong, mind you!

God, I hope it gets best picture…The academy should do it as recognition of this wonderful achievement.
I don’t know why I’m so confident that ROTK will be wonderful, since I too was disappointed with TT. I think I’m so confident because the source material will be much harder to screw up and because we will have a very emotionally satisfying conclusion, as well as the same wonderful acting company, production values, and musical genius. (yes, I’m a fan)

Are you referring to the fact that LotR was originally one book, broken up into three by the publisher because it was too long, or to The Hobbit?

No.

Has anyone seen RotK. Could be crap.

Has anyone seen much that will be up for Oscars next year - the majority of the stuff hasn’t been released yet. Could be some gems.

And pretty much everything Astorian said - plus one - the fact that only Ian McKellen has been nominated as an actor for FotR or TTT (and that only for Fellowship, and a Supporting at that) doesn’t bode well for a Best Picture Oscar. Best Pictures usually get their actors nominated.

I hope they give PJ a special acheivement Oscar for the darn thing.

I don’t give a darn over the Oscars, if I am PJ. I got the hunch that those judges are waiting for something to stumble by, with a artsy-feeling plot and so on and use it topple RoTK. If you ask me to choose between the One Ring and a Beautiful Mind, I pick the Ring instead, thank you…

And that’s what Thalberg awards are for.