TTT/ROTK: Predictions (grosses, ratings, awards)

Ok, even though all Tolkein fans and many non-fans know that these two movies are not sequels, I’m still afraid that they might get treated as such. And everybody knows that along with “sequel” comes lower grosses, lower ratings, and almost no chances at an Academy Award (has a sequel ever won an academy award or grossed more than it’s predeccesor? Ok, a sequel that wasn’t T2?)

Check out the viewer ratings of the first three Star Wars films on

Now most people place the holy trilogy on level pedastals (with some heretics placing Jedi slightly lower) but notice the decline in ratings across the board. People, for some reason, always think “The Original[sup]TM[/sup]” is the best by default. Will the LOTR get the same treatment?
Now on to grosses. What do you guys think? Will everyone who saw Fellowship plus newcomers see TTT leaving it with a higher gross or will some people decide that they’ll wait for the DVD or just not bother with it at all? What about ROTK? Will Septemeber 11th being more than a year in the past have any effect on people getting out and seeing the film?

And awards. Do you think that the Academy gave best picture to A Beautiful Mind figuring it would give the nod to either TTT or ROTK or was all hope lost with FOTR?
I guess I could just wait a few months and have most of my answers but [Homer]I wanna be a geek now![/Homer] :smiley:

My hope is that they’ll give PJ and the rest a special Oscar (but not a ‘special’ Oscar – a really nice proper one) for ROTK for the whole trilogy. But the cynical side of me thinks that they’ll shiver at the genre angle (horrors!) and ignore all three films. What’s also interesting to speculate about is what the academies who DID give loads of awards to FOTR will do. Methinks that, for example, the BAFTAs will completely ignore TTT, whatever its quality, and go all out on ROTK. There will be some kind of Great British backlash somewhere along the line, too.

Well, there was that Martin Scorcese film in the 70’s about the Mafia that did pretty well…

I think RotK has the best chance for cleaning up at the Academy. No real reason for it, just a gut feeling.

Actually, The Godfather II won the best picture Oscar. I imagine several sequels have grossed more than the original because of rising ticket prices and the general stupidity of most movie goers.

I think grosses will be higher for TTT. Two basic reasons, many people saw FOTR on video and will want to see what happens. Also, the free ticket in the FOTR collector’s edition will technically boost sales.

Well, FotR was released after 9/11, and it still did well.

…I know…I was asking if you guys think this will do better because 9/11 is more than a year in the past.

Boxcar Bertha? :smiley:

The “Mad Max” sequels made substantially more money than the original, even adjusted for inflation.

You could say Oscar winner “Silence of the Lambs” is a sequel to “Manhunter.” (I wouldn’t, but you could.)

Interesting question. And I really don’t mean to belittle your question, but my only response is, who GIVES A F**K WHAT THE “ACADEMY” THINKS of FotR, TTT, or RotK. We will know if they are good, and the opinions of an inbred clique of wankers means little or nothing. Sorry, my prejudices are showing!..Timmy

What Tim said, with slightly less vitriol :).

For box-office analysis, see

(the 5th message in the thread). He predicts at least $275 M domestic, $618 M world-wide

As for awards, they have already placed a “for your consideration” ad for visual effects.

(Score, costume design, art direction, etc nominations are also likely)

I predict that the ROTK gets the Best Picture/Best Director combo assumng the film maintains or exceeds the quality of the first one (and I don’t see a reason why it shouldn’t). IMO LOTR as a whole will win a place in film history as a masterpiece of epic-film making (clearly superior to Star Wars for instance) and it would be difficult for the Academy not give it even one best film award. Plus after being a contender for two years in row (even if TTT doesn’t get a nomination it’s probably in the running for one) there will be pshychological pressure to give it a win the third time round. Plus all the nominations for the first one have prepared the ground for a fantasy film to be a serious contender.

As for box-office I wouldn’t be surprised if TTT and ROTK equal or even exceed the first one. For one thing the two DVD releases have been timed nicely to keep the series in the public mind in preparation for TTT. For another, based on the trailers, many seem to think that TTT will be even better.

As much as I love these movies, they aren’t so unbelievably great that they’ll win Best Picture. Neither of the next two films has a hope in hell, and I’ll personally be a bit surprised if they’re even nominated. There’s no chance at all the Academy will give them more support than they did for “The Fellowship of the Ring.”

Like it or not, genre bias will kill their chances. But they’ll make piles of dough, probably as much or more than the first one.

RickJay, the good news is that being unbelievably great is in no way a requirement for winning Best Picture.

The bad news is that LOTR doesn’t fit into the traditional Hollywood mold for Best Picture … it doesn’t involve a fashionable disease, a once-radical-but-now-safely-obsolete political cause, or people in Victorian costumes. Still, we can cross for our fingers and hope that the rest of Hollywood has a bad year and thus TTT or ROTK squeezes out a win by default. It happened to Gladiator, after all, so why not to LOTR?

I predict that Ian McKellan will win Best Supporting Actor in one (but no more than one) of the films; likely, this will occur after ROTK.

Good point.


Also a good point. What will it be up against? The Divine Ya-Hoo Sisters? Monster Balls? What other Oscar-ish movies came out this year or will be coming out before the end of the year?

Well, precisely. The only way either of the next two films would have any chance of winning the Oscar is if they were the greatest films ever made by such a huge margin that nobody could deny their greatness. They won’t be.

Unless that happens, it doesn’t matter if Hollywood has a bad year or not. They won’t win, and I’d lay five to one odds they will not be nominated for any major artistic award. There will be no more acting nominations. Best Director, maybe, if Jackson is lucky, but he won’t win.

Incidentally, my early prediction for 2002 Best Picture is “Gangs of New York.” It’s a perfect choice; a big historical epic with a critically acclaimed auteur who the Academy would love to give an Oscar to, Christmas release, huge buzz, based in New York, a costume drama, and it’s not an Oscar-unfriendly genre. I’d bet money on it today.

Ok, I saw The Two Towers tonight at midnight. Last year at Fellowship there were 6 of us and about 10 other people in the theatre. This year the same theatre sold out their two biggest Auditoriums.

I know that this is just a small sample of the population but if it’s any indication to me it’s good. Anyone want to make gross predictions now? I don’t think the numbers will be out until Monday the 23rd.

I say the Two Towers will come within 10 million of Fellowship either way. 10 over if it has a good long run, 10 under if Gangs of New York turns out to be a hit.

I want revenge for Annie Hall beating Star Wars in 1977. And an Oscar for LotR will give me that revenge! I hold major grudges about this stuff. To this day I have not, nor will I ever see, A Beautiful Mind, since I refuse to watch the film that beat out FotR. I hate that film now and forever. Heck, I might decide never to see another Russell Crowe movie again, not that I’d be missing anything good. Drunken brawling moron.

Oh, and RickJay, I have the same fear that awful-looking Gangs of New York will win. From the trailers, it has the visual look of that gaudy Moulin Rouge, all bright and dazzling and what-not, and the buzz and reviews and so forth. Since I suspect it will win, and again Lord of the Rings won’t, then I’ll preemptively avoid it in case it does, so I don’t break my rule of refusing the see the three movies that will have the distinction of beating LotR.