Well, I saw GoNY last night and I have a hard time believing it will win Best Picture. It will certainly rake in a boatload of technical nominations plus Pic, Director, & Actor (Day-Lewis), but it’s a hard movie to warm up to and that’s why Scorsese films haven’t won before. He may win (sort of a career/sympathy thing), but the film won’t.
As for the OP, I think TTT won’t score a Pic nomination but still could very well get one for Jackson and a boatload of technicals–say, 8 at least. Still incredibly good, if not 13-good. It will win a couple–probably ones it lost last year (Sound, Editing). But I think there will be a lot of people who are waiting to see how it all wraps up, and I think it’s very possible that those who’ve held back because FOTR was “incomplete” and TTT was “transitional” will finally pony up their votes for ROTK, genre-bias notwithstanding. This is an event with plenty of time to allow a natural groundswell to develop. There will have to be something Huge next year to stand up to it. Nothing seems obvious on the horizon, but who knows?
Oh, and I agree with Cisco–$10M spread from the FOTR gross. That will force the industry to wake up and take notice (since I doubt the Harry Potter film will come close to last year’s).
I saw TTT last night, and thought it was great. However, if put side-by-side with FOTR, I’d give the edge to FOTR. I don’t think it’ll win Best Picture or Best Director. I don’t even think it’ll be nominated for Best Picture (especially when factoring in that Peter Jackson has said that he doesn’t really want to do the whole Academy bully pulpit thing).
Well, the SECOND movie is a sequel. The first one can’t be.
Yes, I know, the three books were originally one book. But these are not books we’re talking about - they’re MOVIES, based on the books, and “The Two Towers” is in fact a sequel.
Everyone is correct that The Two Towers just isn’t going to be marked for any kind of “major” awards; I suspect most the acadamy will feel they had their shot last year. Now when ROTK rolls around it might have had enough space that they’ll rethink but who knows.
However, I do think that TTT practically has Costuming, Effects, and Cinematography wrapped up. The only challenge on the Effects is Attack of the Clones and TTT was a greater range and style of effects while Clones stuck pretty much to digital and since people who work in that field vote on each acadamy award the effects geeks will give the nod to the fellow who did a lot of stuff. I can’t think of another film this year that pushes Cinematography like Two Towers does (I don’t need more than the preview footage to tell that; if they have more gorgeous shots in the movie then I think my eyeballs will explode). I’d like them to pick it up for score but that will likely be passed over. Oh, and best adapted screenplay is going to be at least a decide fight.
I don’t think FOTR deserved a Best Picture Award. It was fun… but there was plenty that was corny and hamfisted, definately not up to great dramas.
Don’t even get me started on how much I despise A Beautiful Mind. Especially for failing utterly (except one half-hearted attempt) at explaining his ideas, not to mention misrepresenting them “heh, I’ve disproved Adam Smith!”
Some numbers that are a bit soft but will turn harder Friday -
Wednesday’s opening gross is being estimated at $26 Million . Earlier today the estimate was $27.5M. However, the $26M figure does not include the midnight screenings - which may add $4M to the total. In an earlier release, New Line stated they would not release final numbers until for Wednesday & Thursday until Friday afternoon, in part to reconcile some “inconsistencies”, whatever that might mean. The final number may well end up over $30M when the midnight numbers are included. At this point, a 5 day total near or above $100 is definitely in the realm of possibility - amazing for a film of this length.
