Is the Bush Admin already planning to "regime-change" Iran?

We’ve had several recent threads about Iran’s nuclear program, and whether U.S. or Israeli forces should bomb their nuclear facilities, and what would be the aftermath. The general consensus has been that an all-out U.S. invasion of Iran is highly unlikely, because it would be stupid and reckless to send our troops into Iran when they would be leaving a rebellious Iraq at their backs.

But apparently, some high-placed officials in the Bush Administration really, really want “regime change” in Iran and might not be deterred by common sense. And they don’t just want it, they’ve been laying the groundwork.

From “Is Iran Next?” by Tom Barry, in the October 25, 2004 issue of In These Timeshttp://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/is_iran_next/:

So . . . if Bush wins the election, and goes into his second term with a strengthened mandate, what are these people going to do with their new opportunities? :eek:

I think some in the administration would like and are willing to take steps for a regime change in Iran.

I won’t put much worry into this. As long as Iraq is going, there’s not enough troops, resources or political support to do it.

On the other hand, the insufficient resources, troops, and political support didn’t seem to stop the invasion of Iraq.

Sure, I could see some limited air strikes if Iran doesn’t toe the line. I would rate that possibility as just below 50/50 in fact. I could MAYBE see some covert assistance to groups in Iran that are against the Government…if such groups actually existed on any meaningful scale (which, afaik they don’t). Thats about as far as I think it would go though. No way is the US invading Iran (or anywhere else for that matter) unless something radical happens or changes…not in the next 4 years anyway.

But then, I’ve said all this and more in other threads like this. :slight_smile:

-XT

The funny thing is, before the Iraq invasion, pressure was building from within by Iranians for regime change. The secular Mullahs and Ayatollahs have been at odds with President Khatami’s government for some time. Protests at Universities were common, and with an Iranian population that is in a majority under 30 years of age, it was beginning to appear that Khatami’s moderate government was begining to turn the tide.

Barack Obama came out for airstrikes on Iran (and maybe even Pakistan down the road) in an endorsement interview with the Chicago Tribune: link

I think bad things are going to happen regardless of who is president next.

And do we have any reason to believe all that has changed, since the Iraq invasion?

The major blow to the reform movement in Iran recently was that the Mullah’s witheld endorsement from many reform candidates to run in parlimentary elections on Feb. 20th. 2004. Without this endorsement, the candidates were not allowed to run, leading to many sitting reform candidates to walk out of the parliament and allowing conservative candidates to gain a strong majority in the parliment and further disillusioning the Iranian populaces belief in the strength of the reformers.

Personally I think that this has been coming for a long time as the reformers increasingly allowed themselves to pushed around by the mullahs for several years before this, but at least chronlogically you could claim that the US invasions of surrounding countries had something to do with it.

Finally, I’m hardly an expert but its seems that the Iranians have a much stronger national identity and connect much more with their gov’t then the Afgais or the Iraqis did, and thus invading them would prove to be a much more difficult proposition then was the case in our previous two wars, even if we weren’t overexended elsewhere.

“National identity”? According to the Wikipedia – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran – the ethnolinguistic breakdown of Iran is:

51% Persian
8% Gilaki and Mazandarini
7% Kurds
2% Lurs
2% Baluchi
24% Azeri
2% Turkmen
3% Arab

An American-led movement for “regime change” might be stiffened by a promise to detach all the non-Persian territories from Iran, leaving a purely Persian rump state. The Azeri regions could be merged with the Republic of Azerbaijan, independence could be granted the Balochis of the east, the Arabs of the southwest coast, the Kurds and Lurs on the western border, etc. That’s how I would be planning it, anyway, if I were Douglas Feith. Divide and conquer. The Arabs and the Kurds, at any rate, already have a history of anti-Iranian secessionist nationalism.

Yeah but I could probably produce a similar chart of the ethnic break down of the US but I don’t think anyone would argue that we have a sense of national identity which the Afganis didn’t. At the times of their respective invasions, Afganistan and Iraq had lost control of their northern territories to ethnic minorities and had both recently fought major civil wars. In Afganistan this was a huge factor, as the Northern Alliance actually ended up doing most of the fighting. In Iraq, the army started surrendering even before the shooting started. Its a debatable point, but I think this is because the soldiers no longer held much alligence to the idea of Iraq, instead feeling more connected to their indivdual towns and tribal groups.

Of course this may be the case in Iran, but I’ve never heard of a major sepratist group or civil war in that country while I had heard of the N. Alliance and the Iraqi civil wars before the invasions of those countries, and I don’t think the mere existance of a multiethnic country proves that such a thing exists.

The difference is that America is a melting pot. Except for some of the surviving Indian nations, none of our ethnic groups have any historic territory of their own within our borders, nor are they overwhelmingly concentrated in any part of the country. But some of the Iranian minorities do have their own territories.

There is a secessionist movement among the Arabs of the southwest, known variously as Arabistan, Khuzestan, and al-Ahwaz: http://www.al-ahwaz.com/ (Site is mostly in Arabic but there’s a map showing what they consider their territory.)

The Balochis live in southwestern Pakistan and southeastern Iran. And they (some of them, anyway) do want their own independent Balochistan: http://www.balochvoice.com/

And need I mention the Kurds? They live in Iran, too. http://www.kurdistan.org/, http://biphome.spray.se/faili.kurd/, http://www.krg.org/.

The ‘Bush administration’ part is actually irrelevant. The Pentagon will have plans for regime change for every country in the world. Planning this sort of thing is one of the things staff officers do in peacetime so the US can know what to do when a sufficient situation arises.

Just out of curiousity, how much bite does the Iranian military have? My initial (not very likely and very pessimistic) thought would be that if we performed air strikes against Iran there isn’t a whole lot to keep them from just truckin on over the border and performing some regime change of their own. Twould being a sad scene given our current state of ally affairs.

On topic, a regime change in Iran is highly unlikely. We don’t have the troops or the diplomacy to make that plane fly no matter how badly certain people may want it. Another mess like Iraq would also really stink things up for the republicans, likely to the point where any of their candidates would get beaten by a half cooked potato.

We could easily destroy their military if it came to a fight. The Iranian military is not even as capable as the Iraqi military was during the first gulf war (though its bigger). Their hardware is old and in poor shape, and their military doctorine basically sucks…even compared to other regional powers, let alone the US. They wouldn’t have a chance.

The problem would be after their field army was destroyed…how would we maintain an occupation while still holding down Iraq?? Iran would probably be an order of magnitude tougher than Iraq too boot as I think there the generaly population WOULD be involved…and involved against the US. Logistically we couldn’t…we are already strapped keeping such a sizable force supplied in Iraq.

-XT

Hispanics have been in the western US for 300 years and are still fairly concentrated and have a distinct culture. Mormons have been in Utah for a hundred+ years and WASPs have been dominant in the easten US for 300 years as well. All these groups, as well as African Americans, have their own, sometimes violent, succesionist movements, but I’d still hold that this nation is tied togeather far tighter then Afganistan or Iraq was.

While Iran may have some succesionist movements, as do we, I still haven’t heard of anything anywhere near the scale of Iraqi civil wars or the Northern Alliance. I’ll also add that Iran was a supporter of some of the Kurdish groups in Iraq, which makes me think that they can’t be that worried about thier own kurds revolting.

This was my concern about Iran coming into Iraq after us and to settle an old grudge. Normally speaking we could crush the crud out of Iran. Iraq isn’t normal though. If they came into Iraq we would essentially be fighting two enemies: Iranian soldiers and Iraqi insurgents. Our military is stretched and our allies are a bit scarce. Add in how unpopular the war already is back home and how much worse it could get if casualties mount…

I guess I’m just wondering if even air strikes might stir up a few more hornets than we are prepared to swat. I know the idea if Iran attacking us is a bit far fetched, but there is certainly an opportunity for a leader to score some points by taking on the great, but weakened satan (us essentially) and attempting to finish a bit of a rivalry (Iraq) in the process.

AHEM!

TEXAS

It was a whole other country.

These folks have some interesting ideas about regime change in Iran.
http://www.nonviolent-conflict.org/whatIsNC.shtml

Of course, the marketting and porkbarrelling is harder to come by if the US were to go that route.
Of course every Iranian who is not killed is a potential customer, so maybe it evens out?

I don’t think President Bush plans on direct confrontation with Iran. It’s not necessary. Right after 9/11 there was a Muslim country where students were repeatedly beaten for protesting the violence against the US. That country was IRAN. The government may be a bunch of weasel-fucks but the youth of the country are not.student Movement It will collapse from within (with a little help). IMO, a substantial number of the Iraqi insurgents are sponsored from Iran because a democratic Shia-backed Iraqi government is more threatening than any nuke. It would certainly explain the increase in Iran’s war of words.

If you get out a world map and look at Iran I think the current strategy will become clearer. JM2C.

Hogwash.