Oh, I get it. The only kind of polling with no spin is when conservatives ask push-polling questions.
Here’s my version of a fair poll question:
“How likely are you to support John McCain in the South Carolina primary: very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?”
I suppose this is your “non-spin” version of the same question: “Are you more or less likely to support John McCain, who has a black child out of wedlock, in the South Carolina primary?”
Argumentum ad populum. Winners come, winners go.
And yet it was my side that won the struggle over health care. And was right about Iraq. And was right about massive tax cuts doing long-term damage to our budget. And so on, and so on…
No. Simply asking about the provision as it stands is not spin. Trying to follow the question up with bogus Republican talking points about “consequences” is spin.
This has been hashed many times, and yet you (and others) still bring it up.
Doc-Fix is not part of the health care reform bill, and hasn’t been since a rather early version. Any cuts there would be additional savings, not savings due to this bill - and they are not included in the CBO analysis.
There are potential disputes about the magnitude of the Medicare savings, but Doc-Fix (and doubts about it ever actually passing) is not one of them.
No, I am simply rejecting the idea that poll answers necessarily give a better view of a bill than discussions, especially where discussions have participants from all sides.
That remains to be seen.
I think there is your problem - you do not make the necessary distinction between opinion and fact.
Even endlessly repeated opinion, vehemently insisted on. Even when the whole SDMB (less some few) all agree with you, at the top of their voices.
You people keep demonstrating my point for me. This HCR bill is so obviously the greatest thing since sliced bread. And yet, when it comes to elections, the majority can’t seem to be convinced of it.
I thought it was conservatives who always accused liberals of thinking that the general public was too stupid for their own good. But here you are, saying that the public is too uninformed to answer questions about whether they want a fix to the whole pre-existing conditions mess, whether they think poor people should get help to afford insurance, whether they want children to be able to stay on parents’ insurance programs longer.
No, says Shodan, asking these questions of the unwashed masses can’t possibly result in a legitimate poll! We have to skew the poll with words like “massive new programs” or “let’s destroy Medicare.” To your credit, however, you didn’t use the term “death panel.” Good on you.
But you are being horribly inconsistent: either the American public is hoodwinked by Democratic spin on the particulars of the bill (which they strongly support), or the American public are really smart, understand the bill, and oppose it on its substance. You can’t have it both ways. So tell me, are Americans stupid or smart?
There’s a few reasons why it is unpopular. One, some liberals wanted it to go much further, so they oppose it as a watered-down, weak-kneed compromise. Two, know-nothing windbags like Sarah Palin and Rush Limbaugh have permeated the airwaves with lies and misinformation. Three, Democrats haven’t done a very good job of explaining what is in a very complex bill. And four, there is the loyal opposition who, in general, do not want any kind of health care reform.
So, I understand why it is unpopular. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t the most important social legislation in generations, and that doesn’t mean it’s a bad thing.
Actually, when both sides get to present their side of it. Then one side loses.
No, actually I didn’t say that.
But again I thank you for demonstrating my point for me. You like polls that apparently claim there is a “fix to the whole pre-existing conditions mess”. And I have little doubt that if you pose a poll asking the average voter “Do you want to fix the whole pre-existing conditions mess?” and follow up by asking “Obamacare will fix it. Do you support this provision?” many folks will answer Yes.
But I am sure you will note that this takes it for granted that laws forcing insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions will fix “the mess”. Guess what? That is opinion, not fact, and polls that beg this question are spin.
And then elections happen when people rationally discuss the HCR bill without accepting this spin at face value. (Not on the SDMB, I grant you.) And when that happens,very often things like last Tuesday happen.
No, says Shodan, it is a mistake to rely too much on polls. It sometimes leads to rather unfortunate events in the polling booth.
Good thing liberals are too honest to do anything like falsely attribute quotes to an opponent.
Like voting Republican. It’s a terrible, terrible thing. But with your help, we can stamp out this plague on our society. Donating just $1 a day to the DCCC/DSCC will help keep Republicans out of the government they hate so much. Donate today. Thank you.
You aren’t my opponent. You’re Shodan. And you’re kind of cute when you’re losing a debate.
Is a major health-care reform now the law of the land?
Is there a snowball’s chance in hell of it being repealed in toto in the next six years?
The answer to these questions will lead you to who “won” the battle over the course of health care policy in the United States over the next decade, at least.
It is clear that you believe that winning elections is the primary goal of a political party. I believe it is passing and implementing legislation that improves the lives of Americans.
Yeah, and a WQHOLE bunch of politicos got kicked out of office because of it.
There’s a fairly good chance of it happening beginning in two years. One we get control of the Senate and a Republican in the White House, then depending on public sentiment at the time it stands a very good chance of being repealed. And in the meantime it may be killed by Republicans withholding funding for it. We’ll have to wait and see.
Two things: One, you have to get elected before you can do anything, thus the importance of getting elected; and two, putting up obstacles to legislation that is bad for the future of the country and its people IS improving the lives of Americans.
As is his right. But that’s only his opinion and like I said, we’ll just have to wait and see. If there’s one thing the recent election showed, it’s that people are very unhappy at having this health care bill shoved down their throats (well, that and promises regarding the economy havent been kept). If there seems to be enough popular support for it, the bill will fall by the wayside one way or another.
Permit me a sincere question: Which of the following options more accurately reflects your mental state:
(a) I’ve seen exit polling from the election that suggests that a majority of people who turned up to vote support repeal of the health care bill. Even though I know that the sample of the electorate who voted in this election is not a representative sample of all adults, and even though I know that non-partisan public polling of adults shows the bill at 50/50 support/repeal, I nevertheless think that the exit polls are a better reflection of the mood of the people at large than those other measures.
or
(b) I’ve not actually looked at any of the evidence, but I’ve heard this talking point repeated a bunch, so I’m going to repeat it here because it riles up the liberals.
I could more accurately respond to you if I knew whether you were thinking (a) or (b).
What kills me is that conservatives are making out like the President’s party doesn’t lose seats in Congress 90% of the time – no no, they proclaim, this isn’t about an overwhelming historical trend, this is about health care! This is substance! This is about the least experienced President in galactic history!
Well, actually, the loss of seats is pretty much indistinguishable from every other midterm election in the last century (save 1934, maybe 1998, and 2002).
The President’s party lost seats. It happens damn near every time. That doesn’t equal a rejection of the stimulus, health care, and the beer summit.
I’m going basically by sentiments I’ve been seeing and reading about in news articles and magazines since the health care bill was passed. I’m also going by a recent Rasmussen poll which showed that 58% of the public favored eliminating the health care bill altogether. I’ve posted about this poll before and it was pointed out that some believe the Rasmussen poll to be Republican-biased by about 6%. I don’t know that this is accurate, but even if it is the results would still be 52% in favor of repeal. I don’t have a lot of faith in exit polls with regard to why people voted a certain way. There are just too many variables that can influence the answers. They are very good for predicting results though.
It isn’t that the president’s party lost seats, it the magnitude of the loss. IIRC, there hasn’t been such a large partisan shift in the house since 1948.
