When Ross Perot came to the fore, it was because there was dissatisfaction with Washington and a vague sense that changing to the opposite party wouldn’t do anything. People like rabble rousers. As Ross Perot proved, you don’t need much of a platform.
I think third parties have sort of gotten discouraged, what with the state election regulations keeping them down and the “plurality=win” system making them irrelevant.
Also, you’ll note that last year, Ralph Nader’s level of support went down from 2000, not up. People felt that their vote mattered; they wanted to unseat the president, so why throw away their votes on someone with no chance? If it’s close, or if people ar passionately for/against one of the two major parties’ candidates, people feel an obligation to try and throw their weight behind a Democrat or Republican. If you want to unseat Bush’s party, vote Democatic; that’s your best chance to get something done.
Even if an independent came up on the right, and therefore wouldn’t be diminishing a Democrat’s chance of beating the Republicans, he wouldn’t be able to hack a big enough chunk out of the Republican base to make a substantial showing. All he’d do was help along a Democratic victory.
At this point, third parties are only relevant insofar as they affect the outcome for Democrats and Republicans.
Some of these very issues were just raised in this thread: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=346178
Even farther back than Nader and Perot, though, third parties in the US tend to have one big election and then go away.
A third party could only succeed if it had a regional base. This not because The Establishment cheats, but is part of the nature of a First Past the Post system.
If the Third Party has ten percent of the vote nationwide, it wins nothing. No vice-president, no Minister of Silly Walks, no Congresscritters. Nothing. Then the Third Party goes away.
If the TP has only ten percent of the vote nationwide but fifty-one percent in East Carolina they win everything in one state. Senators, Representatives, Governors and so on.
Unlike a Parliamentary System, a Congressional System can only support two real parties, the one one that wins and the one that looses. Minor parties are destined to be just that.
So what to do? Two possibilities.
One, get fifty-one percent of the nationwide vote. Winning a state, and then a region would be a good start. Once the TP wins in a big way, one of the other two goes away.
Two get five percent of the nationwide vote. Scare the two big parties enough to make them steal the positions of the new party. The party looses, the idea wins.
East Carolina? There’s an idea whose time has come! Are you running for office? If you want to be the first to declare, I would donate your first dollar 