I have a feeling that in “deadlocked legislature” states, a third party could get traction just out of frustration. The motto would be the standard third party call to “Throw the bums out” with no specific platform.
All those deadlocked legislatures states are deadlocked because they’re trying to figure out how to solve their current fiscal crises. The debate over raising taxes vs. cutting programs is not the kind of wedge issue that gives birth to third party movements.
Less I think. I think Ross Perot had a shot except he dropped out of the race. I fully believe he might have actually won had he not done that.
Less likely, for the time being anyway. A lot of people got a nasty taste in their mouth when in 1996 the Reform Party turned out to be simply a vehicle for Ross Perot’s ego.
Well, it was, after all, the only available vehicle that had the room to transport it…
If the Republican Party ditched its wingnuts, it could happen. But I don’t see the middle of the roaders splitting. Sadly.
Edit: That is, the wingnuts would flake into a new party. It’s the extremes that polarize out.
I think 2004 would have been a good year for a decent 3rd party candidate. I wonder if a Pat Buchanan style isolationist/populist (without some of Pat’s baggage) backed by Perot level cash could have taken a serious chunk of the electorate.
Perot was able to triangulate and attract votes from both parties. The mostly like kind of third party would be a teabagger wingut party, and they would not be able to attract anybody but teabaggers and wingnuts.
The only party that might be able to triangulate would be a reformed GOP, but they would have to amputate the wingnuts and redefine themselves as moderate/centrist, fiscal conservative, social libertarians
Well, they’d get the tv reporters, anyway.
I think the most likely start of a new party is again a central figure without strong party ties, like Perot, or Bloomberg, or Schwarzenegger. A person WITHOUT an inherent doctrine and platform.
The way to win a big share is to be against the status quo, not in favor of anything in particular, except “more common sense solutions” and “more business-like decision making” and “less waste”.
Contrast the Greens - they can thrive in the multi-party systems of Europe, but in the US if any of their programs are gaining traction, they are just co-opted by the big boys.
True, and note what all three of those guys have: their own wealth and/or fame. Those are going to be required for any third-party candidate.
The big issue that sparked Perot’s campaign was the deficit. There’s absolutely likely to be an opening for some outsider to take up a similar crusade. Certainly neither party can really sell themselves as deficit-cutters for the time being.