Is there a counterpoint to the law of accelerating returns, like a law of diminishing benefits

Great Debates
1

In thisthread I mention that according to one article, the speed of medical knowledge has been growing exponetially. By the next decade medical knowledge could double several times a year. I’m not sure what counts as ‘knowledge’, if that includes things like people blogging about their health problems (which FWIW can be helpful) or if it is just things like clinical research.

Anyway, even if there is an exponential growth in knowledge (in various areas, not just medicine) and in things like capacity of IT and biotechnology, isn’t there a counterpoint that each growth provides less useful service than the one before it? A doubling of medical knowledge may make medicine <1% better, a doubling in computing power means better graphics in video games, etc.

Doesn’t each new bit of knowledge end up being more esoteric, detailed, inapplicable to 99.999% of people, etc? Each exponential growth results in more finely tuned knowledge that helps fewer and fewer people.

Plus doesn’t technology grow in complexity at time passes, meaning stem cell generated organs are more complex than pharmaceuticals, which are more complex than creating clean drinking water, etc? So yeah you have more knowledge and more tools, but the problems grow in complexity too as each generation of tech and problem solving is harder and harder than the last.

2

Yes, the counterpoint to the principle of accelerating returns is the principle of diminishing returns.

3

There is a long-known model of the S-shaped curve in technological advances.

A new technology begins slowly, then ramps up. You get a period of exponential growth. And then… It kinda peters out. You can’t keep up exponential growth indefinitely.

A completely different example would be putting more policemen on the street to reduce crime. Once every twentieth person on the street is a policeman…adding more isn’t going to bring any benefit.

One more example is putting in hours of study for a class. Once you’ve studied to the point of mental exhaustion, more study isn’t going to improve your test scores.